Posted on 10/28/2020 6:30:07 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
POTUS will be in Tampa tomorrow, and Don Jr. was in Vero Beach this evening.
“I am about to post an update to the early voting blog that is going to make some people happy and some people unhappy.
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Unhappy? Maybe his Las Vegas followers found out that Hunter Biden rented out all of the hookers this weekend?
can you ping me on twot when it appears?
Alright, you terrible tease. I’m calling it a night. I’ll hit you up for the Cliff Notes version in the morning. Sweet dreams all!
Please ping LS on Twitter when Ralston’s blog post goes up. I don’t use Twitter.
Well, I don’t see an update on his website. MAYBE the update about rurals I posted earlier is the news. He usually has an evening update and I see the latest posted time right now is “Update, 5:20 PM, 10/28/20”.
I’m assuming the info below is the NEWS. Trump could net 70,000-80,000 in the rurals of NV vs 58,000 in 2016. Trump lost NV by 26,000.
“First, the Republicans are up in the rurals by 30,000 ballots and nearly 28 percentage points with about half the vote in. Trump won rural Nevada by nearly 58,000 votes in 2016. I have said it could be as much as 70,000 this cycle. I may have underestimated it.
Second, in 2016, Trump won rural Nevada by 65-28. If we apply those numbers to the current turnout, he actually is up in rural Nevada by more than 40,000 votes. Indies in the rurals lean right. Might the president get above 70,000 and closer to 80,000? It’s possible.”
Off to bed myself.
These elections can be exhausting.
Who knew?
Some of the green counties open Sunday:
I think Palm Beach might move to the neutral
just for reference I am posting the current EV results for each county so we get a feel how many votes per day
Good for Trump:
Hillsborough R +7010
Pinellas R+8549
Polk R +9516
Manatee R +15499
Sarasota R +21994
Charlotte R+ 14199
St. Lucie R+3997
Volusia R+ 16190
Bay +16579
Bad for Trump:
Broward. D +52396
Palm Beach R +1842
Orange. D +26,269
Osceola D +5112
Leon. D +10065
Gadsden D+ 3795
Neutral:
Miami-Dade R+6628
Duval D+1146
We know what that means. Looks like my NM REPs are bleeding into NV and soon AZ.
“green” county comparison EV
the 6 counties D’s are leading they are up a total of 98,783
the 11 counties Trump is up R are leading by 122,014
so the R’s are actually still leading the EV in the greener counties opened on Sunday by a total of 23,231 or an average of 2323 votes a day
souls to the polls is the wild card
“green” county comparison EV
and the smaller red counties voting on Sunday for the reserves
so far EV difference
Gulf R +1584
Taylor R +1097
Suwanne R +2402
bradford R +1396
Levy R+ 2514
Gilchrist +1405
Union +978
Seminole +7676 (should be in the Green group)
so +17647 more
so that’s 40878 R+ so far on the Sunday ones
or 4088 a day
better then what I thought
Reading through Ralston’s blog, I have a question about this statement:
” If one million voters turn out in Clark County — and this seems about right — and Biden wins Clark by 10 points (Clinton won it by almost 11), that’s 100,000 votes. “
Why is Clark turnout expected to be 1 million when the total votes for 2016 were about 760k? You have a city that has been shut down for much of the year. I would expect many people to have moved elsewhere in search of work.
We need to analyse Ralston’s blog. I think he is overestimating Dem turnout and crossovers. Covid changed everything.
Now Republicans are approaching parity in early votes, they’ve shifted the argument to “well, both sides are going to vote in equal numbers on Election Day just like they did for early voting and it comes to independents then.”
I guess it’s possible, but I don’t see the evidence for that at all.
I see remaining vote share among Rs, Ds, and others to be about the same as it has been since IPEV started. That’s when both forms of voting became available. 66% of FL votes have been cast since October 19th.
The share has been 33.4 D, 41. 7 R, 24.9. Other
no new thread yet but off to a bad start (no panhandle until c11)
looks like miami dade dumpsed a huge amounts of mail ins
EV R +1463
Mail in D +3270
dem + 1807
So many numbers being thrown out ,it’s hard to follow.
I reinvested a lot of time to relearn since 2016.
I have to write this down so i don’t have to relearn again in 2024.(assuming i’ll be able to search to find this)
Thanks for doing this.
Let me know if you see major errors.
— >Key data and source
>90K 2016 (D-R) (MIV + IPEV) from your 2016 final
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3490855/posts
> 113K 2016 final R margin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
>193K new R registered voter gain (Thank you Ravi)
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3894122/posts
Assumptions:
(MIV + IPEV) is the only variable.
2020 ED R net gain = 2016 ED net + % new R registered
2016net =2020 is OK with lower turnout since R% higher
ev I’s split 50/50
ev R&D vote 100% for party
Registered voter turnout = 80% (for new R’s)
D’s voting method is 50% MIV, 25% IPEV , 25% ED
R’s voting method is 50% ED, 25% IPEV , 25% MIV
No cheating or massive voter fraud
So
2020 ED R net gain = 90K + 113K + (80%)* (50%)* 193K
2020 ED R net gain = 280K
UF = Uncounted Factors ( both help the R’s)
1) some MIV will be disqualified and more of those will be D’s
2) I’s went Trump about 53% in 2016, assuming ev I’s even split leaves some chips on the table
Scenerios:
A) 2020(D-R)(IPEV+MIV)= 300K > win by a hair due to UF
B) 2020(D-R)(IPEV+MIV)= 200K > win by about the2016 margin
C) 2020(D-R)(IPEV+MIV)= 100K > win by ~double the16 margin
D) 2020(D-R)(IPEV+MIV)= 0 > win by ~triple the16 margin
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