Florida Early Vote update, 10/28/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/28/2020 | self

[janetjanet998]

I noticed this earlier ..this county is the best D county and it adds a +100 or so votes every refresh of EV

Steve Schale Flag of United StatesDrum
@steveschale
Broward turnout is actually higher than the state average. That literally doesn’t happen.

[janetjanet998]

more on Broward

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
I already tweeted about this earlier but it deserves another one, Broward turnout looks fantastic so far, very impressed

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Word is, Biden is going to visit there again tomorrow

[IVAXMAN]

more on Broward

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
I already tweeted about this earlier but it deserves another one, Broward turnout looks fantastic so far, very impressed

Word is, Biden is going to visit there again tomorrow

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That should really fire them up ... all 12 people that are there !! LOL

[janetjanet998]

not sure what happened

perhaps some counties reported late

since my last update when things were going backwards

Rep has gained a couple thousand EV and dems lost a handful of mail ins

so the overall lead is down to

201807

[IVAXMAN]

.....
dems 204228 dems +186 last update

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I had given up making it to 200k but we are now at 201807 !!!

[janetjanet998]

I had given up making it to 200k but we are now at 201807 !!!

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yep

I stopped paying attention not sure what happened

Rs got a huge clump of votes, and D’s lost a few mail ins

maybe Sarasota reported their once a day update?

[byecomey]

That’s exactly what I happened. I usually wait until the morning, but I made a special Sarasota push tonight.

[IVAXMAN]

Thank you for explaining !

Been having fun this week with your maps. Good work :)

[Rumierules]

Some of the green counties open Sunday:

Good for Trump:

Hillsborough
Pinellas
Polk
Manatee
Sarasota
Charlotte
St. Lucie
Volusia
Bay

Bad for Trump:

Broward
Palm Beach
Orange
Osceola
Leon
Gadsden

Neutral:

Miami-Dade
Duval

[Owen]

Is there a registration by county number, and where increases were concentrated

[janetjanet998]

That’s exactly what I happened. I usually wait until the morning, but I made a special Sarasota push tonight.
—

Ok thanks

makes more sense

the overall totals wont change of course but that means no Sarasota numbers for Sunday

oh well..everyone was assuming zero for Sunday anyway since they are closed

[janetjanet998]

Good for Trump:

Hillsborough
Pinellas
Polk
Manatee
Sarasota
Charlotte
St. Lucie
Volusia
Bay

Bad for Trump:

Broward
Palm Beach
Orange
Osceola
Leon
Gadsden

Neutral:

Miami-Dade
Duval

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what counties were opened on Sunday in 2016 more? less?

[janetjanet998]

looks like Sarasota is opened on Sunday after all

never mind

so the Sunday data won’t go on the Monday data the new way

[Rumierules]

I don’t know but I do know that IPEV wasn’t so one sided in 2016 (like it is for Rs this year) because Rs had kept the D lead down, in decent part, because of VBM.

Now were are in a situation where counties that could still go to Biden (and probably will) are netting R votes recently (Duval, Hillsborough, and Miami-Dade).

All those are big.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Ralston upcoming update. I have a feeling it will be positive for Trump.

“I am about to post an update to the early voting blog that is going to make some people happy and some people unhappy.

Don’t kill the messenger.

What a funny request to make on Twitter.

Stay tuned.”

[SpeedyInTexas]

Not Ralston upcoming report but from earlier today:

“First, the Republicans are up in the rurals by 30,000 ballots and nearly 28 percentage points with about half the vote in. Trump won rural Nevada by nearly 58,000 votes in 2016. I have said it could be as much as 70,000 this cycle. I may have underestimated it.

Second, in 2016, Trump won rural Nevada by 65-28. If we apply those numbers to the current turnout, he actually is up in rural Nevada by more than 40,000 votes. Indies in the rurals lean right. Might the president get above 70,000 and closer to 80,000? It’s possible.”

[Coop]

Ma-a-a-n, I was getting ready to hit the rack. Maybe I’ll stall for a few more minutes...

[SpeedyInTexas]

I bought 975 Trump NV at .24.

Not my usual type of bet.

BUT, I might flip them for a quick 10-15% if Ralston’s numbers move that market.

[janetjanet998]

Broward

Biden was there last week I think..that may be the reason why it is looking decent there for the D’s with good turnout

he is going back there tomorrow again

Trump needs to go to Miami and talk about the Dems and their socialism

Then a Trip to Jacksonville (Duval)

and maybe some smaller markets..places he hasn’t been yet this cycle

[Coop]

As a reminder, from one of my earlier threads:

Trump lost NV in 2016 by 2.4 points, a whopping ~26K votes. As of 9/1 the NV GOP had made a net gain of nearly 6K votes. Gary Johnson took over 37K votes, while “None of these candidates” scored another nearly 29K votes. Plus NV-03 is another Republican-leaning House district the GOP’s Dan Rodimer is trying to win back. While it’s not a shoo-in, the Trump campaign can definitely flip NV.

Big Dan Rodimer for Congress