Posted on 10/28/2020 6:30:07 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 620,908
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 374,996
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 245,912
10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5%
10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
“10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5% ”
Gap down to 3.6 points.
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Looking good
In about 45 minutes this morning the GOP IPEV advantage jumped by about 5K. Could be another great day!! I am rooting for +430K by day’s end.
Yesterday was so good, Patriots scored 2 touchdowns on the same drive.
Bort is unable to post a NC thread today, but said the Dem advantage is down to ~301K, below the list 2016 final EV advantage of 310K (when the Dems lost NC by over 3 points).
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Looking good
You sure? Aren't there only a few days left of early voting? Also, won't the hurricane impact early voting a bit? Seems like it will be close to 2016, which given the DEM fraud machine this year, isn't enough.
The unanswered QUESTION...
How many DEMOCRATS voted REPUBLICAN?
D VBM return rate is 70.4%. Yesterday was 68.1%
R VBM return rate is 67.8%
2.6 point gap. Smallest gap since beginning of election.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump
Bookmark
The Donkeys needed a 650,000 lead on Election Day. They’re not only not going to get that, at the current rate, they’re going to have a lead of ZERO in about 4 more days.
In 2 days, Ds will reach their 2016 Election Eve VBM return rate. So they are ahead of 2016 pace and indicates D turnout will be up this year.
Last 2 day average gain was 1.8 point
1.8 * 5 + 70.4 = 79.4% VBM Return Rate trajectory.
Pretty high.
Rs need a high turnout this year, at least 2016s 81.2%.
How many Republicans voted Democrat?
Watching the video now.
I am strongly in favor of NOT voting early. It just lets the democrats know how many votes then need to manufacture.
And gives them time to create them before Nov 3
Didn’t Trump win Florida by 100K last time?
Rs need a high turnout this year, at least 2016s 81.2%.
So, a suppressed R turnout on Election Day would be a problem? I ask because you know it's coming. While I like to believe Trump will win FL, none of this is much of a warm fuzzy.
Yeah that video took the map from “oh it’s a fun hobby which motivates Republicans” to “holy crap” in my mindset.
He pretty much nails it. Everything we are thinking. It could be close to over for the DEMs if it isn’t already. How FL goes so goes the nation.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.