Posted on 10/28/2020 6:30:07 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
you are correct my War Eagle friend.
Roll Tide!
Cook Political moved Texas from Lean R to Toss Up.
I’m shaking in my Texas Boots now...
There is rather too much data mining going on within polls that we decided not to believe anyway.
The Hispanic improvement . . . the improvement among blacks . . . the past gold standard for those measurements was exit polls. Not likely to remain gold standard this year, though I’m sure it will be quoted.
We may have zero data of any value upcoming, other than the final vote count. This will make data people angry, and broke. Hard to sell advertising if all you have is opinion.
Doubt it.
This was posted yesterday and should be required viewing by all of us here on FR...great detailed information about what’s going on in the battleground states by Rich Baris and Richard Barnes...just search for below and you should be able to find it...very long YouTube but absolutely great analysis.
Barnes and Baris on the Home Stretch: What are the Odds?
11:10p am eastern
rep EV +13928
Dem mail +626
net Rep +13418
This a great RP EV advantage higher then yesterday at this time and DEM mail in lower
—
yesterdays post
10:51 eastern
EV Rep +13,320
Mail Dem +1398
net Rep +11,922
The Nate Silver take: Independents will save Biden in Florida and Nevada. I kid you not.
“For example, Biden lost independents by 13 points in Nevada in 2016, per the exit poll there. This year, he leads them by 3 points, in an average of the last 6 polls of the state. That amounts to a net 6 point swing to Biden.”
MD nearly +30K overall
Biden Adv in Duval overall dropping towards +20K. That remains a bother. They clearly did something in Duval vs 2016. Maybe decided that was where they left votes ungrabbed.
“That amounts to a net 6 point swing to Biden.”
Trump lost NV by 2.6 points.
A 6 point swing mean Trump loses NV by 8.6 points.
You are dreaming boy.
Every night, he was day dreaming.
Independents is literally all they have to hang their hats on now.
“very long YouTube”
I like them, but way too long.
Give me 5-8 minute video and I’ll watch.
The last 6 polls of the state . . . we would need to see the internals of those. If the D/R mix in a poll differs from state registration, that indicates a zipcode imbalance, and that would affect Independent positions too.
Nate could be right. If Biden wins indies and the crossover battles he will win. But I have my doubts. We shall know in a week.
That’s pretty much the fall-back for everyone on the left. Funny whatever helps them sleep. They’ve probably never even heard of the “Indepedent American” party in NV and how it has close to 80,000 voters. And the assume NPAs in these red counties in FL are going to save Biden - good luck with that.
Where?, on the maps it's showing Biden up 20K
It was the Dem’s bastion, the NY Times, saying about their own poll that Biden is showing weakness with Hispanics in TX. They see this and they’re warning about it. They also warn that they see Biden is under-performing Clinton in deep blue (pre-riot) PA Philly by 10% and Trump is over-performing his 2016 exit polling there.
When these ‘nuggets of truth’ slip out from the other side, about their own side, it’s worth taking into consideration.
Never really explored the mindset of Independents.
I could make a case for Independents being angry at the pressures they feel in their area to be nudged in some direction so they register Indie and intend to vote opposite that pressure.
So Indies in Blue counties vote red, and vice versa.
A very credible mindset for people who have the willingness to reject both sides.
Dan Bongino interviewed Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group.
Here’s what he said:
PA, Trump is ahead but will he have enough to overcome voter fraud.
WI, Biden up by a sliver. Trump could win. Huge silent Trump voter.
MI, James and Whitmer are lifting him. Feels good about MI. Up in MI.
FL, Trump victory. Will exceed 2016.
States that will surprise us. Nevada and Minnesota.
AZ and NC tight. Trump is winning, but Biden could still win.
Black vote - will be big. It’s under reported. He is saying anywhere between 15 to 20 percent.
This interview was posted on 10/23. It’s on Spotify.
Good news.
DUVAL just flipped to Advantage TRUMP
Where?, on the maps it’s showing Biden up 20K
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
scroll over the county , read the notes at top also about how advantage is determined.
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