Posted on 02/11/2021 1:41:15 AM PST by nickcarraway
The average energy investor is by now well aware of the sector's monumental shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Coal-powered power plants have been shuttering at an alarming clip as the price of electricity from natural gas and renewables undercuts them while wind and solar generation continue to gain the ascendancy.
But nowhere has this change been as dramatic as the transport industry, with EV titans such as Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and NIO Ltd. (NYSE:NIO) now commanding substantially higher valuations than their imposing ICE brethren, General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford Motors (NYSE:F). Indeed, the global EV sector now carries a higher valuation than the global ICE sector despite accounting for less than 3% of new vehicle sales in 2020.
It's a situation eerily reminiscent of the thousands of buggy and whip companies that were rendered obsolete in the early 20th century.
But now, a section of Wall Street says the situation is a lot more dire than that.
Morgan Stanley has argued that traditional ICE makers are destined to become money-losers as early as 2030.
MS' analyst Adam Jonas says the market may be ascribing zero or even negative value for ICE-derived revenues at GM and Ford and has listed a variety of factors that are likely to transform the companies' once-profitable assets into potentially cash-burning and loss-making businesses.
Pivoting to EVs
Morgan Stanley is hardly alone in its very dim outlook of the traditional auto industry.
A recent survey on institutional investors by the investment firm has revealed that 17% of respondents think ICE technology has no zero or negative value today, while 60% have rated ICE technology as only slightly positive. Just 23% think gasoline and diesel tech still carries a significant positive value. Related: Oil Prices Slip On Large Gasoline Build
(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...
My friend, you said the magic words. Solar cannot heat a house in the winter.
Just because you didn't get a check doesn't mean the thing isn't subsidized. Not saying it isn't a great deal for you. It is just that the system breaks down when you start using the same model for everyone.
Plus, when one starts considering the energy cost of producing a lot of the "renewable" energy hardware, it starts to look (practically) like an energy storage medium rather than an energy source. If your initial energy is cheap enough, and your goal is energy independence, that may not matter. But if your goal is eliminating fossil fuels from the economy, all you have done is moved it behind a curtain you won't look behind. That is why most "electric" cars can effectively be described as "coal-fired."
Thank you for the detail of your response.
Please share the brand/source of the panels that you are using, etc. You indicated a spend of @ $6,000 USD. Is this a turnkey cost?
I’d be interested in converting my all electricity house (average monthly electric = @ $189 w/ two people) to this setup.
MFO
The quality, range, and speed of charging electric vehicles have improved to where they are now a viable source of everyday transportation.
Currently, the electric generation and grid could not handle a substantial increase in electric vehicles......
This means more natural gas, coal, and nuclear-powered plants need to come online very soon to meet expected demand.
Coal plants emissions are almost down to nothing with the new scrubbing procedures, gas plants emit little, and nuclear, well it’s nuclear.....
Reducing the number of gas vehicles and increasing the number of electric must be met with a substantially increased electric distribution and generation infrastructure to be viable.
Electric vehicles will be the future of transportation but gas vehicles will be here way into the 2050s.....
That’s because we will all be so poor from Democrats we won’t have any cars.
I could also hook panels to the grid and force my neighbors to subsidize my winter electrical needs by buying my summer excess at full retail. But that would be unfair to my neighbors, because my power company can buy reliable wholesale power for about 4 cents instead of my unreliable power for 12 cents, and tha's what my power company should do.
Thats good first hand information, thanks.
Its contrary to what I have previously know about the technology; so its good to hear of your experience.
They have pronounced the gas industry dead more times than they wrote off Sylvester Stallone’s career.
It means that “renewable” is impossible due to entropy.
EVERYTHING degenerates. No cycle is perfect - there is always loss.
Dec, Jan, and Feb = $175, 190 and 171, respectively.
June, July and Aug = $148, 209 and 162
Yes, I do have a wood stove down in the basement and we use the hell out of it when it is cold (like it is right now!)
I appreciate your thoughts. I am going to look into this.
This is especially true of the phenomenon of voting for democrats in order to get “free” stuff. There is tremendous loss in that process.
Brits don’t do AC. Their residential solar is highly subsidized. There are a lot of holes in his story.
Makes more sense that what they’re talking about. Thanks.
Most importantly you will be comfortable in the winter with your wood stove.
I don’t calculate it that way. Dodgy salesmen use shoddy math like that to prove people can make money out of solar that way; they then find it’s pie in the sky, based on total guesswork.
The way I work it is, mental arithmetic. A flat rate 14.4p per kWh is typical, but it is creeping up. If I use on average 30kWh every day that’s £4.50 a day, or £31.50 a week, or £96 a month, £1150 ish per year - and that’s consistent with my quarterly bills before getting solar.
In other words, if I didn’t get solar, and if prices stay static for 7 years, after 7 years I’d have paid as much to the grid as I (overspent) last year on solar.
If I generate 60% of my own power over that seven year period, without reducing consumption, it’ll take just around 11.5 years to get to a point where the solar has paid not just for itself but for all the other works I had done at the same time, and for its maintenance.
In reality, the system is rated for 16 years minimum, and if it’s well maintained it should last for 22 years.
So, TCO over the lifetime amounts to a 20% cost reduction.
That’s if I generate only 60%, AND the price of using the grid doesn’t rise.
If I can get to a point where
Jumping in.......
Nuclear trumps solar or wind
Green is ridiculous and hyped by ignorati
So how does your panel putting out 1.5 kva handle that load? It doesn't..
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