Posted on 10/27/2012 10:26:39 PM PDT by Private_Sector_Does_It_Better
Are you skeptical that Romney can win some of the non-swing states (Penn, Mich, Minn, N.J., Oregon...) that currently are strongly leaning toward Obama?
Consider this... In the wave election of 2008, most polling for Indiana was showing McCain (meh) with a 3-5 point lead. Rassmussen, who nailed the general gelection, showed McCain with a 3pt lead on 10/29. Reuters had him ahead by 5pts on 11/3. But a couple of "outlier" polls that last week showed it tied. Sound familiar....
Like this recent poll showing Michigan tied at 48%: http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19905504/michigan-poll-obama-and-romney-in-dead-heat
Or similar recent polls showing Minn and others tied or close.
“We may get PA. But, I am not enthusiastic.”
We will get PA. Everybody on the planet has already called me crazy for predicting IL. Perhaps they are right, but I have worked in both north and south in IL, as well as the St. Louis area in the last several months. Our corporate office is in Chicago, which I’m coerced to go to once in a while. Despite the juggernaut of Cook County, there is no there there this year. My absolute gut feeling is Cook county is not motivated enough, even counting the zombie apocolypse vote, to overrun the state this year. ILL-Annoy will fall!!!!
“I was driving around in upstate NY a couple of weeks ago and only saw (1) Obama sign.”
Upstate New York, for all time, might as well be on a different planet from NYC. The problem is New York City has a little over one hundred and eleventy billion people, which washes out the rest of the state. Kind of like LA and SF control California, and Clark County NV washes out the rest of Nevada.
When I stayed in Chicago, all of my bathing was done in lake Michigan, it was low cost living at it's finest.
Lyin’ in ponds distributin’ swords is no basis for a system of government
“The problem is New York City has a little over one hundred and eleventy billion people”
You mean millimn I saaume...
“When I stayed in Chicago, all of my bathing was done in lake Michigan, it was low cost living at it’s finest. “
Obviously that wasn’t during October through May!
No, it was cold, but not that bad.
By that time of the year I was in Wisconsin and Minnesota, and would drive to Chicago only for Mexican food.
A Romney victory so complete he even squeezes electoral votes out of Lake Michigan!
“My absolute gut feeling is Cook county is not motivated enough, even counting the zombie apocolypse vote, to overrun the state this year. ILL-Annoy will fall!!!!”
I live in Chicagoland (DuPage County, heavily Pub) and I have had the identical gut feeling also. I know I can easily be wrong, but I might, by a pure stroke of luck, be right. Cook County, which is what surrounds the city of Chicago itself, and thus suffers all of the taxes and fees levied by the City as it too is in Cook County, but gets few benefits in return for its financial drain by the City, is not that inclined to vote for Obama this time around. Not by a longshot.
I know my friends that live and work in towns within Cook County don’t like Obama and will walk over hot coals to vote against him. With the exception of the City itself, this time around Obama is going to do much worse, maybe even lose his own State. Not outside the realm of possibility. Downstate won’t vote for him, the collar counties won’t vote for him, and Cook County is no longer enamored of our Dear Leader. His goose might be cooked by Cook County.
My prediction is in electoral votes: Romney - 321 Obama -217
No, 58. Remember Obama had visited 57 states and had one more to visit. We must not lose that 58th state!
I hear the schools there are awesome!
MN is trending purple...O once had a comfortable lead there and now the race is essentially tied.
He is in trouble in Blue States around the country. This election may end up controverting the conventional wisdom.
I haven’t seen a thing like this since 1980.
However, Illinois will still go for this jerk, like my conservative friend who lives in the city said, "There isn't much Obama enthusiasm here, but there's a lot of Romney hate." This is very typical of leftists, HillBuzz had a good article about this and they said look for the day after Halloween for the left to get really crazy and angry at conservatives because they will have realized at that point that they're toast and going to lose the election.
“If Obama is 49.5 or > in a state poll, he will win that state, if less than 49.5, he will lose”
Agree, but that’s assuming the state poll accurately reflects the electorate. The polling this cycle seems a bit goofy.
Poetic and priceless!
You could write one of those stocking stuffer books... would be a big hit with Chicagoans and friends!
I see it 295 Romney, 243 Obama right now. But it the wave starts to build, then Romney could go into the mid 300s
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.