Hurricane Florence Live Thread II

NHC/NOAA ^ | 12 September 2018 | NHC/NOAA

[rollo tomasi]

Please drop the intensity level "measuring stick". The surge from the stall and rainfall amounts will make intensity irrelevant. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM for coastal and inland areas. It could be a tropical storm for all I care.

Weakening/Eye wall replacement cycles has caused the storm to expand the hurricane force/TS (A stronger storm is usually tighter) wind field which makes the situation WORSE in light of the stalling factor. The areas that this storm is affecting already have record rainfalls.

[tired&retired]

Our prayers in the Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill area must be stronger than the folks in South Carolina....</s >

[thoughtomator]

public advisory from a few minutes ago dropped it to 115mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/122354.shtml?

[NautiNurse]

Congratulations for your accomplishments today. All best wishes for a restful night of sleep.

Good to know your stepson is receiving medical treatment.

[MustKnowHistory]

Diabetes is controllable. Stay safe and we are thinking of you.

[NautiNurse]

Florence with additional slight weakening...
Life threatening storm surge and rainfall expected...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM Advisory...
----------------------------------------------
About 335 MI...SE of Wilmington NC
About 370 MI...ESE of Myrtle Beach SC
Maximum Sustained Winds...115 MPH
Present Movement...NW at 16 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure...956 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[ncalburt]

Waveland was a sad place after Katrina .
People died needlessly there .
My wife's family lost a second home nearby on Pass Christian.
Nothing was left to salvage.

[stilloftyhenight]

My concern are the Nuclear Reactors. N.C. has 4 reactors and 4 nuclear waste ponds, S.C. has 7 Nuclear Reactors and waste ponds as well. This could cause far more damage than mere hurricane rain and winds.

The ponds are kept cool by water swirling around them. If cold water can’t contain them, then the reactors and ponds can heat up and explode.

Keep praying!

[thoughtomator]

pressure rising, wind speed falling is the best news I’ve heard in 2 days

[rollo tomasi]

Again there is enough energy this close to shore to make the CAT irrelevant.

Mississippi found that out with Katrina. Got hit with a “3/2/1 (In many places)”, damage was extensive regardless of the CAT because of the energy already present.

Only saving grace is that the east ridge weakens and this thing quickly goes north east (Away from CONUS).

Moving more to the north and east past the forecast points right now. Either way, it’s still not good because a lot of people are going to experience heartache and loss (Hopefully just material things).

[zzeeman]

Indeed, the wind speed is not going to be the cause of most concern.

Obviously sustained tropical storm force and/or hurricane force winds over a period that could exceed 24 hours, depending on the stall, is nothing to sneeze at, but it is the sheer breadth of the storm that will cause the storm surge (again, possibly for 24+ hours) to create massive coastal flooding (and push that surge far inland).

And that isn't even mentioning the potential for very widespread freshwater flooding from torrential rains over a very large area. Note with a prolonged and powerful surge, the freshwater flooding potential (and intensity) is magnified since the natural path of the freshwater away from the inland areas can be hampered by a long duration surge.

Put simply, a potential long duration stall (as they are forecasting) of a storm of this size, spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for many, regardless of the wind speed.

[thoughtomator]

You can be confident we won’t be experiencing a Fukushima. This is a storm with many days’ lead time to prep, not a tsunami generated by an unexpected large earthquake.

[ncalburt]

What a relief to have answers and chores done.

[PJ-Comix]

Weather.com has current wind speed at 115 mph.

[hinckley buzzard]

Stories abound of people who are refusing to evacuate barrier islands.

They are asking for the Galveston experience. Good luck.

[Conan the Librarian]

I have been by there many many times, but, never in. Should be ok anyway. Gov’t would make them close and evacuate the island if they were really worried about surge.

As it is, the wind down this way will be coming off the land.

SHOULD keep the surge down.

I can’t promise anything, but, I’ve lived in the area for 58 years now. Should be ok.

[ScottfromNJ]

Looks like the storm is fizzling out.

[VTenigma]

It flooded my town here in So.Vt above the historic high flood level in three hours. Wiped out all access in and out for three days, and heavy truck access for two weeks. No power for days and no fuel. I’m well prepared so no problem for my family, power, heat hot and cold running water. I have all manner of vehicles with abilities beyond most, but many suffered and we’re in the mountains 150 mi from the sea.

[Mr Fuji]

I wish it would fizzle out but I wouldn’t bet on it.

[Kickass Conservative]

Based on the Blame Trump Media, wouldn’t it be easier to just ask the POTUS where he plans on directing the Hurricane with his Weather Machine?

Best bet is that he found the old Bush-Rove Weather Machine abandoned in the Basement of the White House.