Posted on 04/21/2020 6:28:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Swedish Public Health Agency has collaborated on a new study that estimates one-third of all Stockholm residents will have been infected with COVID-19 by May 1. That amounts to approximately 600,000 people in Sweden’s capital city. Sweden’s official figures report only 15,322 positive cases so far in the whole of the country, suggesting significant numbers of “invisible” infections.
The astonishing numbers are in stark contrast to the latest World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that “no more than two to three percent” of the world’s population have been infected.
Sweden’s acting state epidemiologist Anders Wallenstein confirmed the findings during the latest daily press conference about the virus outbreak. It was also revealed that a further 185 coronavirus-related deaths have occurred in Sweden in the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 1,765.
The study indicates that for every confirmed case of COVID-19, a further 999 people are likely to have been infected with the virus without knowing it. The study used a model that includes the number of positive COVID-19 cases in Stockholm from February 17 to April 10, along with samples taken from infected people in the period March 27 to April 3.
Professor Johan Giesecke, former Chief Scientist of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), told SVT the estimates are good. “The virus is very contagious but most people who are infected do not know it.” One of the reasons for his confidence is a new coronavirus test that has been performed on blood donors in the Stockholm region. It showed that at least 11 out of 100 have developed antibodies.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
What?!
I not only have to read the article but also give a report on it to the class?
Interesting thing was an antibody study of 100 blood donors which showed 11 had antibodies.
Not big enough to mean anything but intriguing.
Problem with the antibody testing in the U.S.—it isn’t very reliable at this point.
Infections don’t mean deaths.
MAYBE Sweden’s “cure” (being generous) is worse than the disease.
But in the US it is definitely reversed. There have been more deaths from suicide in my county since mid March than from CV19.
It is a threat.
But it is not the ONLY threat.
Sweden might be an effective place to study the natural history of the coronavirus infection.
“This figure from Sweden is hard to compute. There are 15,322 confirmed cases in Sweden. At 1,000 to one, we’d expect 15.3 million actual infections. The total population is 10.23 million.”
I agree. these are garbage numbers.
It also states...
“One of the reasons for his confidence is a new coronavirus test that has been performed on blood donors in the Stockholm region. It showed that at least 11 out of 100 have developed antibodies.”
That would mean that roughly 11% have been infected not 33%.
Spain and the UK seem to have started isolation after the peak.
And which antibody test did they use? If they used the same Chinese made test that has a specificity of 87%, then the estimates are hosed.
Clever that you speak of case fatality rate when the article discusses infections.
It is easy to understand “infection” and then calculate the ratio of deaths caused by Corona to Corona infections.
But what is a “case”?
Your honesty is appreciated. I will help you to interpret the graph. Nothing "clever," not trying to trick you.
A closed case as illustrated in the graph is a person with COVID-19 infection who is no longer deemed actively infected. There are two ways this occurs, either by 1. recovery, or 2. death.
The graph illustrates that in Sweden, there are 3x more closed COVID-19 cases due to deaths than recoveries through April 21, 2020.
In summary: This is a grim statistic.
Stanford has done three already and is still processing numbers and writing the papers.
There are other institutions doing it also in various regions of the US.
They may beat Wu Flu,but the Muzzies ain't going nowhere. They have been very quiet all over lately. It's almost their killing holiday Ramadan.
That is a lot to accomplish in a very short time!
Hmmm. Dont look good.
But a case is not an infection is it? If it were then the number of cases would be equal to the number of infections. So please explain the difference between infections and cases.
Until very recently, there was no evidence to support your assumption of “Most don’t show any symptoms”.
If the much higher infection rate proves true; that’s good news. Very good news. But, you didn’t know that before anyone else.
When the decisions were made to use extreme measures to control the spread; all the evidence pointed toward a much higher death/case ratio.
The herd immunity solution may work (if the estimates mentioned in the article prove correct), and that would be great news. However, if the death rate is higher, that would mean that many more people would have had to die to achieve herd immunity.
I know all of that, the experts know all of that, and Trump knows all of that. Trump took decisive action, based on the best information available at the time. That’s what effective leaders do. Your Monday-morning quarterbacking isn’t impressive. And your callous attitude to the deaths is more than a little disturbing.
We need treatments but the “BLUE STATE” Governors are prohibiting the use of HCQ. It appears they want the “worse case” scenario to continue in perpetuity.
Meanwhile the goalpost of “flatten the curve” has been moved to “eliminate the virus” which any reasonable person/any damn fool know can never truly happen.
We still have SARS. We still have MERSA. And—political correctness be d@mned—we still have AIDS/HIV.
Those are good things.
I think Stockholm would be a VERY good place to test though.
Unfortunately, we don 't have a dependable test.
What better way to kill off a bunch of older people who normally vote republican?
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