Posted on 10/19/2020 8:07:09 AM PDT by karpov
The polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitic shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group.
If you are a firm believer only in polling averages, this isn’t particularly meaningful, but if you are familiar with Trafalgar’s successes in 2016, when (unlike other pollsters) it had Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania and, in 2018, Ron DeSantis winning his gubernatorial race, it is notable. Regardless, it’s worth knowing why one pollster is departing from nearly everyone else.
To this end, I checked in with Robert Cahaly, who is predicting a Trump victory, on the latest edition of The Editors podcast. This piece is based on our conversation.
Cahaly was born in Georgia and got involved in politics going door-to-door as a kid. He started a political-consulting firm with some others in the late 1990s. Around 2008, he says, they realized that the polling they were getting wasn’t very good, so they started doing their own. He says they got good, accurate results in the races they were working.
In the 2016 primaries, they started putting out some of their own polls. “Our polls ended up being the best ones in South Carolina and Georgia,” Cahaly says. “So we started studying what it was that made those so different.”
Then there was the breakthrough in the 2016 general election. “We ended up having an incredible year,” he says. “I mean, we got Pennsylvania right. We got Michigan right. We had the best poll in five of the battleground states in 2016. And I actually predicted 306 to 232 on the electoral college.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Well, the biased media make sure every Respublican is the underdog from the getgo.
Excellent article, thanks for posting it.
The lines in red Arkansas are unbelievable today. That has to mean something.
Trafalgar group emphasizes short surveys. I looked at a CBS/YOUGOV poll for Arizona and the results were 85 pages(!) covering about 35-40 some questions that had to take close to a half an hour to complete. I don’t know a conservative that will sit for a half an hour being questioned by a polling group.
Lowry is a mental midget. If Lowry knew anything about statistics, then he would debunk (see, I can use that word too) polling averages. Polling averages are like averaging apples and oranges to get bananas. The methods used, the sample populations, the questions, and even the underlying mathematics in individual polls are different. Rule #1 in statistics: A poll tells you about those who responded to the poll - that is the sample population. Even with that, there is always error in measurement. It is called the margin of error. By the way, there are multiple methods of calculating margin of error. Pollsters never tell us with method, although you can some determine the method with simple algebra given enough variables in the poll results. Additionally, pollsters never give correlation statistics - that is the correlation between the sample population and the population in its entirety, e.g., register voters, all voters, etc. Writing of which, how do you average register voters with all voters or all adults in the US?
Again, Lowry is a mental midget. Don't believe a single word he writes.
Paywall: what’s the point posting it?
“ Cahaly notes that this phenomenon showed up as long ago as the 1980s, in the so-called Bradley effect, when the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley...”
The Bradley effect has been tested time and time again and since its discovery in California, it remains a constant in all presidential election polls since 1984 but is never corrected in the final results, and that is why Trafalgar Group’s polls should be the only polls deemed accurate.
My take away. Could lose Pennsylvania due to voter fraud.
My other fear is that there are as many voters infected with TDS as there are rabid pro-Trumpsters.
But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.”>>>> Wolf wins again. And the local state rep doesn’t even say he is a republican. What is with these chicken sh*ts
Even Trafalgar pretends that Dems don’t cheat.
The only people in this election who are willing to stand in line for a rally or to vote are Trump supporters. That fact alone proves this election is over, and Trump’s second term has begun.
Fingers crossed and prayers up that this is true.
The election will be decided by voter fraud. Even if only a few percent of the overall vote, it could be enough to tip the election.
Check your mail.
Couldn’t access on Brave with DDG. I had to copy the URL to Safari with Google and turn content blockers off. So to me it looks like no paywall.
Prayer is powerful. Target supplications for the elect angelic forces presiding over Pennsylvania and Nevada. Leftists always dismiss divine intervention.
I get the concern about voter fraud. And I know the RHINOS are sitting on their butts about this, Biden controversy, and other issues. But, President Trump is a smart man and I have to believe that he and his team are prepared for this possibility.
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