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Posted on 05/21/2002 11:21:41 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
SAN FRANCISCO, May 21 (Reuters) - These should be golden days for California's Democratic Gov. Gray Davis.
The state's power crisis is all but over, and Davis has declared political and moral victory. The Republicans have nominated a conservative rookie to face him in November -- boosting the Democrat's chances for a second term despite his own dreary ratings in the polls.
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And Davis has no shortage of campaign funds to fight the battle, promising an aggressive statewide publicity campaign to persuade voters that he has made good on his promise to deliver a "stronger, kinder and better" California.
Despite the good news, Davis finds himself fighting on a number of fronts, any one of which could spell big trouble.
A budding scandal over a botched state contract with software maker Oracle Corp (NasdaqNM:ORCL - News) and a subsequent Oracle contribution to Davis' reelection campaign has unleashed a wave of criticism over Davis' fund-raising tactics, including Republican charges that he is running a "pay to play" administration which offers political payoffs to big contributors.
California's massive $24 billion budget deficit is also punching holes in Davis' good mood, and looks likely to cause him more political pain as he seeks to sell a plan to balance the books by simultaneously cutting programs and raising taxes.
And political analysts say Davis' hopes to capitalize on hints that last year's power shortages were at least partially engineered by energy companies may backfire by reviving debate over his handling of the crisis -- an episode for which he has never drawn high approval ratings.
The focus on Davis' own record threatens to divert attention from the "wedge issues" his camp sees as its real strength against Simon -- abortion, gun control, and liberal California social values.
"The governor might want to talk about other things, but he is still the subject of debate," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at the University of Southern California.
"Any reelection campaign is a referendum on the incumbent. So what voters are really going to be asking themselves now is 'what have you done for me lately?'"
FUND-RAISING FALLOUT
Davis most immediate problem is political fallout from the Oracle controversy, which came to light last month after an official audit concluded that the state could end up overpaying some $41 million for software it did not need.
Officials later said that Oracle had donated $25,000 to Davis' reelection campaign after the contract was concluded. Davis reacted swiftly, suspending or firing three senior aides and returning the money.
But the scandal threw a spotlight on money-raising tactics which have made Davis among the best funded politicians in California history, a nonstop squeeze on corporations, organizations, unions, and individuals that has banked more than $42 million for his reelection campaign.
The San Francisco Chronicle, in an analysis of campaign computer records, determined that Davis had pulled in donations at a rate of $1,800 an hour, 24 hours a day -- for the past five years.
Davis aides say the prodigious fund-raising is necessary for a "man of limited means" who has run repeatedly against millionaire Republican candidates like Simon who are happy to finance their own campaigns.
"We have to raise money in order to be competitive," said campaign spokesman Roger Salazar, adding that there was no quid pro quo for donations. "The bottom line is that Gov. Davis has never based any policy decision on contributions. He never has and never will."
ENRON BITES BACK?
While critics focus on fund-raising, Davis himself has been focusing on Enron (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News) and allegations that the energy company helped rig California's devastating energy crisis last year.
After claiming for months that California had been mugged for billions of dollars by unscrupulous energy generators, Davis has seized on new evidence of questionable Enron trading schemes as vindicating his long fight for more federal oversight and huge energy rebates to the state.
But some political analysts say that Davis' focus on Enron could backfire, noting that Davis' own approval ratings fell sharply during the energy crisis and never fully recovered.
"Voters have already decided what they think of Gray Davis and the energy crisis, and they blame him for not solving it in a more satisfactory way," said Dan Schnur, a Republican political consultant.
Schnur said that Simon, who has attacked Davis for mismanaging the state's huge budget deficit, could score more points by depicting the governor as the man who ran California finances into the ground while ensuring his own campaign coffers are full to overflowing.
"If the campaign is about abortion and guns, Davis will probably be elected. But if Simon can make it about energy, the economy and the state budget, then he has a much better chance."
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You don't want that to happen do you?
Keep up the good work.
Changing topics, have you seen an increase in virus attacks coming from E-Mail?
That question is for other readers as well.
Not yet. I get an update warning from McAfee when warranted.
I've had 6 since yesterday.
Who cares? Let Davis continue self destructing while Simon is busy raising money. You'll see plenty of Bill Simon after Labor Day.
How come I've only seen one (count 'em - one) mainstream article discussing that Bill Simon has led Davis in numerous polls? Nope, they only want to talk about the one outlying Field Poll showing Davis with a [snicker] 14-point lead.
I think the polls that showed Simon ahead were privately-commissioned polls that were informally leaked to various news sources, while the Field Poll was meant for public release. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but that's the impression I got.
All those polls are getting a little stale now, don't you think? Including the infamous Field one. (There are two separate articles on the Field Poll on Davis' news page; I think they are meant to look like two different polls, but of course they're both the same).
We need some new polling by someone a bit less biased than the Field folks.
Ernest: There's a new virus out there. I'm a Mac user, so I'm not endangered by them, but the blizzard of them is pretty annoying.
I run a fairly popular web site, so I get millions of the bloody things, since they get email addresses by looking at people's web caches, among other things.
I'm glad I'm a Mac user, since I'm sure I would have been fooled by at least one otherwise.
D
ROTFLMAO!!! Gee, leave it to ol' Theo to completely exaggerate in favor of the oddsmaker's choice. So tell me, Theo, if it's such a daunting task:
-Why has Simon led in four of five polls?
-Why are Davis' re-elect numbers so mind numbingly pathetic?
-Why does the Political Oddsmaker list Davis (a.k.a. incumbent in the "upset of the century" race) as only having a 51.7% chance to win?
Sure, Davis should probably be favored, simply because of that massive war chest he's got. But upset of the century?!? LOL!!
But I know, I know. You really, really want Simon to win. :-)
The polls were from Feb 02 through late Apr 02. Two were Field Polls (we never hear about the one {Feb} Davis was leading in). One was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the Simon camp, another by Probolsky & Associates presumably for the GOP. The fifth was done by an unknown agency for a CA teachers association, which I dare say did not care for the results (Simon - 41%, Davis - 37%).
All those polls are getting a little stale now, don't you think?
Yes. And let's remember that polls six months out don't mean a whole lot. But they're all we've got right now. And they do show that, despite the rhetoric to the contrary, Simon's got a legitimate shot to win this thing. I doubt the POTUS would be out there raising money for a sure loser. :-)
I'm surprised we haven't seen a poll measuring the effect of the Oracle and fundraising scandals on Davis' numbers. The media and Dems may be afraid to commission one, for fear of the results. But I'm surprised the Simon camp or GOP hasn't done one. (Or perhaps they have, and did not care for the results.)
I suspect the latter is true. Remember, Simon was prominently featured in the media during the last few weeks of the primary campaign, since the media hoped Simon would upset Riordan and smooth the road for Davis in the fall. Now that that scenario has played out, the media is acting like Simon doesn't even exist. Simon is probably following the usual GOP playbook - spend big in the last two weeks before the election and try to create the final impression in voters' minds before they enter the booth. I think Davis has too much money for that strategy to work, this time.
I fear this campaign is going to be Clinton vs. Lazio 2000 all over again, with Davis winning by a wide margin despite his huge negatives and Republicans left scratching their heads and wondering why.
Could be, although I'd be hesitant to pick a winner in this race right now.
Just remember that Lazio wasn't even in the race yet at this point back in 2000. And the media here in CA is obviously much more concerned about relevant issues (budget, Oracle, energy crisis, etc.) than the New York media was. Remember when Lazio kicked some Hillary butt (there's no small task) in a debate, and all the media could talk about was how he invaded her space? That victimizing garbage moved the race from a dead heat to a comfortable Clinton lead that Lazio never recovered from.
That said, Lazio still ran a poor campaign. I hope Simon does not follow suit.
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