Posted on 05/21/2002 11:21:41 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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You don't want that to happen do you?
Keep up the good work.
Changing topics, have you seen an increase in virus attacks coming from E-Mail?
That question is for other readers as well.
Not yet. I get an update warning from McAfee when warranted.
I've had 6 since yesterday.
Who cares? Let Davis continue self destructing while Simon is busy raising money. You'll see plenty of Bill Simon after Labor Day.
How come I've only seen one (count 'em - one) mainstream article discussing that Bill Simon has led Davis in numerous polls? Nope, they only want to talk about the one outlying Field Poll showing Davis with a [snicker] 14-point lead.
I think the polls that showed Simon ahead were privately-commissioned polls that were informally leaked to various news sources, while the Field Poll was meant for public release. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but that's the impression I got.
All those polls are getting a little stale now, don't you think? Including the infamous Field one. (There are two separate articles on the Field Poll on Davis' news page; I think they are meant to look like two different polls, but of course they're both the same).
We need some new polling by someone a bit less biased than the Field folks.
Ernest: There's a new virus out there. I'm a Mac user, so I'm not endangered by them, but the blizzard of them is pretty annoying.
I run a fairly popular web site, so I get millions of the bloody things, since they get email addresses by looking at people's web caches, among other things.
I'm glad I'm a Mac user, since I'm sure I would have been fooled by at least one otherwise.
D
ROTFLMAO!!! Gee, leave it to ol' Theo to completely exaggerate in favor of the oddsmaker's choice. So tell me, Theo, if it's such a daunting task:
-Why has Simon led in four of five polls?
-Why are Davis' re-elect numbers so mind numbingly pathetic?
-Why does the Political Oddsmaker list Davis (a.k.a. incumbent in the "upset of the century" race) as only having a 51.7% chance to win?
Sure, Davis should probably be favored, simply because of that massive war chest he's got. But upset of the century?!? LOL!!
But I know, I know. You really, really want Simon to win. :-)
The polls were from Feb 02 through late Apr 02. Two were Field Polls (we never hear about the one {Feb} Davis was leading in). One was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the Simon camp, another by Probolsky & Associates presumably for the GOP. The fifth was done by an unknown agency for a CA teachers association, which I dare say did not care for the results (Simon - 41%, Davis - 37%).
All those polls are getting a little stale now, don't you think?
Yes. And let's remember that polls six months out don't mean a whole lot. But they're all we've got right now. And they do show that, despite the rhetoric to the contrary, Simon's got a legitimate shot to win this thing. I doubt the POTUS would be out there raising money for a sure loser. :-)
I'm surprised we haven't seen a poll measuring the effect of the Oracle and fundraising scandals on Davis' numbers. The media and Dems may be afraid to commission one, for fear of the results. But I'm surprised the Simon camp or GOP hasn't done one. (Or perhaps they have, and did not care for the results.)
I suspect the latter is true. Remember, Simon was prominently featured in the media during the last few weeks of the primary campaign, since the media hoped Simon would upset Riordan and smooth the road for Davis in the fall. Now that that scenario has played out, the media is acting like Simon doesn't even exist. Simon is probably following the usual GOP playbook - spend big in the last two weeks before the election and try to create the final impression in voters' minds before they enter the booth. I think Davis has too much money for that strategy to work, this time.
I fear this campaign is going to be Clinton vs. Lazio 2000 all over again, with Davis winning by a wide margin despite his huge negatives and Republicans left scratching their heads and wondering why.
Could be, although I'd be hesitant to pick a winner in this race right now.
Just remember that Lazio wasn't even in the race yet at this point back in 2000. And the media here in CA is obviously much more concerned about relevant issues (budget, Oracle, energy crisis, etc.) than the New York media was. Remember when Lazio kicked some Hillary butt (there's no small task) in a debate, and all the media could talk about was how he invaded her space? That victimizing garbage moved the race from a dead heat to a comfortable Clinton lead that Lazio never recovered from.
That said, Lazio still ran a poor campaign. I hope Simon does not follow suit.
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