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Will Third Parties Run to Victory?
Insight Magazine ^ | May 13, 2002 | Sam MacDonald

Posted on 05/13/2002 8:24:05 AM PDT by sheltonmac

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To: sheltonmac
Close elections come along every few years. Especially presidential elections. In the last 100 years, the 1948, 1960 and 2000 were close elections. Third parties have had almost zero effect in those races.

A strong third party that does have an effect when it has a very charismatic candidate. Thus d Teddy Roosevelt in 1912, and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 had real impact.

But the logic that if A were not in the race, A's voters would vote for B is just not true. It is more likely that they don't vote at all. From the perspective of the right it appears that Gore is nearly as good for the Greens as Nader. But the Greens don't see that way. The left believes that Bush is nearly as attractive to the Libertarians as the Libertarian candidate. To the Libertarians there is zero difference between Bush and Gore. To the Naderites there was zero difference between Gore and Bush.

Third parties have an effect when they are able to paint both major parties as being identical. The true third party members really believe they are identical. Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 claimed that there was no difference between Wilson and Taft. So did Wallace and Thurmond in their third party attempts. Perot claimed that there was no difference between Bush Sr. and Clinton. Third parties never attract significant followers when the two major parties are in disagreement on their issues. Thus the conflict between Dubya and Daschle does not speak well for third party chances. All third parties disagree with the two major parties. But the issues upon which they disagree, must be one where the major parties agree, and a significant number of Americans disagree with the major parties. There is currently no such issue.

Most in the mainstream media have concluded that the Libertarians did not hurt Bush, but that Nader hurt Gore. It is not true but they believe it. As a result the MEDIA has decided NOT to cover 3rd party activities in 2002 and 2004. It will be very hard for a Green Party or Libertarian candidate to get a seconds worth of air time. You will find that all major media ignores third party activities this election cycle. They will continue to do so until the memory of the 2000 election fades.

There is no major issue to make a 3rd party popular. Third parties have to represent an attractive view neither main party accepts and they must have a very charismatic personality. Right now they have neither.

Third parties will have zero effect in the next few years. They will continue rant an rave. No one will notice.


21 posted on 05/13/2002 9:35:50 AM PDT by Common Tator
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To: sheltonmac
Will Third Parties Run to Victory?

Only on the local and State stages. Federally? Fuhgedaboudit.

22 posted on 05/13/2002 9:37:17 AM PDT by rdb3
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To: ex-snook
The way I look at it, a constitutionalist Republican has about as much chance of getting elected as a constitutionalist third party candidate so it's six of one, half-dozen of the other. The real battle is in the fight over issues. If third parties can further awareness of the Constitution among the people then they will have been successful in my opinion.
23 posted on 05/13/2002 9:38:22 AM PDT by sheltonmac
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To: freeeee
If not, and you let the R's power brokers dictate the results of primaries, and continue to run police state candidates, then you'll never get my vote.

Reality check: A principled loser is still a loser.

It's just that simple.

24 posted on 05/13/2002 9:39:51 AM PDT by rdb3
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To: The Federal Farmer
I'm voting Libertarian because I want my country back.

Voting Libertarian won't do the trick for getting what you want.

25 posted on 05/13/2002 9:44:42 AM PDT by rdb3
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Comment #26 Removed by Moderator

To: rdb3
To flip it around, an unprincipled winner is still unprincipled.
27 posted on 05/13/2002 9:47:42 AM PDT by sheltonmac
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To: rdb3
That's fine.

Go ahead and call us losers. By all means continue to elect candidates that violate the Constitution.

I'm not telling you not to. I'm not trying to influence your party, it's beyond redemption. You can have it.

But don't whine when your party loses a close election because you don't have our votes. Lost control of the Senate? Tough. You make your decision at the primary where R's nominate police-state candidates. Decisions have consequences. Deal with it. If calling us losers makes you feel better, have at it. Just don't expect votes.

28 posted on 05/13/2002 9:48:08 AM PDT by freeeee
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To: The Federal Farmer
You Republicans are getting suckered. Government is bigger now than it was in 1994.

It's true that there's now a run on the Treasury.

By the way, I'm NOT a Republican.

29 posted on 05/13/2002 9:48:46 AM PDT by rdb3
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To: rdb3
Voting Libertarian won't do the trick for getting what you want.

You have a better idea? Don't keep the big secret. Let us in on the big plan to reclaim constitutional government.

30 posted on 05/13/2002 9:50:28 AM PDT by freeeee
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To: freeeee
Touchy feely, are we?

Listen, I'm not calling anyone out of their names. But the point still stands. Your refutation to what I said is not really a refutation at all.

The fact of the matter is that, at the end of the day, a principled loser is still a loser. What's so hard to understand about that?

What good is a loser to the game? If you are not in office, it doesn't matter what you believe.

If you think that's calling you and yours out of your name, I can't help that. It's not my intention, but I still can't help it.

A principled loser is still a loser.

31 posted on 05/13/2002 9:52:32 AM PDT by rdb3
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To: freeeee
You have a better idea? Don't keep the big secret. Let us in on the big plan to reclaim constitutional government.

There's no secret. But, face it. Libertarians are unelectable.

No matter how good and sound their beliefs, they WON'T get elected.

That's all I'm saying here. It's the truth, and you know it.

32 posted on 05/13/2002 9:54:30 AM PDT by rdb3
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To: ppaul
Since, as the article correctly notes, Republicans "stray from their small-government promises" on a daily, if not hourly basis, what's to ruin? Neither "maistream" party honors the Constitution any more, so what does it matter whether they're your thieves or the other guy's thieves? Now if they were all Pubbies from the RLC or of the same stripe as Dr. Paul, that'd be fine. However, they are not... you have MOST of them as closet versions of John McLame or Jumpin' Jim Jeffords... so what's to choose between them and the Rats? Not so much, methinks...
33 posted on 05/13/2002 9:54:34 AM PDT by dcwusmc
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To: sheltonmac
If third parties can further awareness of the Constitution among the people then they will have been successful in my opinion.

You mean Constitutional issues like the free and copious flow of mind-altering drugs?

Yep, that'll work.

34 posted on 05/13/2002 9:57:23 AM PDT by sinkspur
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To: rdb3
What good is a loser to the game? If you are not in office, it doesn't matter what you believe.

Look at it the other way:

What good is it to get "your guy" elected, if all he does is damage? Think about it. Winning elections is great. But holding office is but a means to an end. If your 'end' is limited, constitutional government, even if "your guy" wins, you still have lost, every bit as much I have.

35 posted on 05/13/2002 9:59:00 AM PDT by freeeee
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To: sinkspur
You mean Constitutional issues like the free and copious flow of mind-altering drugs?

I'm thinking more along the lines of less spending for federal education programs, adherence to the Constitution when passing bills (CFR), and something less than an 80% increase in farm subsidies. But if you want to mischaracterize my positions so that you can demonize me and others like me, go right ahead.

36 posted on 05/13/2002 10:02:53 AM PDT by NittanyLion
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To: freeeee
I hear ya. Trust me, I want to return to a purely Constitutional government.

The problem, here, is getting elected. Outside of a true revolution, things will remain the same if the right people aren't sitting in office.

Just plain winning isn't the answer. Who wins is of utmost importance. Therefore, doesn't it make more sense to place the right candidates into a position where they have a better shot at winning versus one where you know they don't have a snowball's chance in hell? I think so.

37 posted on 05/13/2002 10:07:29 AM PDT by rdb3
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To: The Federal Farmer
"The GOP is filled with a bunch of half-assed Democrats"

That's the way I see it too. Who would want to vote for a bunch of second rate imitation Democrats?

How about a little personal integrity?

38 posted on 05/13/2002 10:13:19 AM PDT by Sam Cree
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Comment #39 Removed by Moderator

To: rdb3
I agree. Ron Paul is an excellent example. Ran as a Libertarian and lost. Runs as a Republican and wins, and makes a difference.

Problem is, he's persona non-grata in the Republican party. He's making them look bad by comparison and they want him out.

The problem is that Republican party power brokers decide who gets the nomination before the primary. Instead of a place for debate and decision making, the primary then is reduced to a cheerleading session, and people like me are completely excluded from the process.

So what do we do? We make our own party. If our party causes damage to the R's and they lose elections, maybe they'll decide to open up the primaries. Until then, there's not much else to be done. I don't like it either, but that's reality.

Either way, I'll be damned if I'll vote for police state candidates. I just don't have it in me.

40 posted on 05/13/2002 10:16:53 AM PDT by freeeee
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