Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
Read that again. It's saying that you should have six months of income in some form that is readily available. Cash under the mattress would be extreme, but an interest-earning savings account would be good. Then, anything beyond that six-month emergency fund should be put to work.
As you well note, reality often puts a chunk of that six month cash buffer to work defraying unplanned expenditures. Ask my transmission guy how I know. :0(
LOL!
I don't think we'll go that far...I think we're already looking for a ZOT! thread to hijack for the 1st of September.
At least sion mentioned that last night...I think. :o|
I'm so happy to hear that, 'Face.
:-)
*blush*
Thanks for being the first member of my fan club! ;-)
cars will get you every time.
AND if you are really unlucky, they conspire with the household appliances and the ar will give it up at the same time as the fridge and the hot water heater.
Personally, I think they are out to get us all...
I get it now, beyond the six months of payments.
That makes sense.
I don't think I've managed to do that yet.
Thanks. :-)
'Face,
Don't worry .
I'll track it, even if we "move" and I'm away
We'll ping you, of course.
The only downside of seeing the aircraft was this: I didn't have a camera with me.
*Groan*
The Collings Foundation brought them here as somewhat of a flying history museum.
And, in a way, to make history more alive.
I would have loved to have heard the engines start up, but I was kinda there at the wrong time.
Tomorrow is when they will be flying them.
LOL, fanfan.
My father said something the other day that sounded like he said "There is a possum in the works."
And, of course, it ended up as a tagline.
;-)
I'd tried to be modest and not mention it, but it came out in the course of discussion and then...Egad! Did you know that 'Face is...she...well, it's just that there was this thing about needing oil for her elbow? Well, of COURSE it isn't confirmed in so many words, you understand but... And THEN I had to shunt the Indiscriminate Innuendo Generator output to Vegas for several hours to preserve propriety and decorum. This IS FR, not MAXIM, after all.
[fanning self vigorously] Honestly, the things I've learned here on FR... I never!
Sounds like you had a good day.
The Yankee Air Force Museum here in Michigan BURNED a couple of years ago and a lot of nice old planes were lost
One of our 4-H kids was helping his Dad and Older Brother restore one of the old things...
You've LOTS of company. The six-months savings bit comes AFTER you liquidate your credit debt. Until then, keep it to three months of buffer capital; paying off those double-digit interest rates is higher priority.
HKMk23, thank you for the Wikipedia link. It's been a long time since I read Adams' stuff.
Best Regards,
Googolplex Star Thinker of the Seventh Galaxy of Light and Ingenuity
Well we ARE onto the conspiracey.
Despite their best efforts, and apparently YOURS.
LOL!
And 'Face ALWAYS bears watching
Yup.
I even got to walk inside the two aircraft.
There's more space inside than one would think, but there is less space than one would want.
*chuckle*
I hate money.
That's possibly why I don't have much of it.
:-)
I thought we WERE the conspiracy.
I'm always missing these memos..
;-)
Part of why they want our 4-H boy in on the restoration is because he's still small enough to crawl up into the thng and get into places the Big Folks cannot.
If his Mom keep s feeding him, though, he won't be able to do that much longer, though! LOL!
Glad you liked it. I never did get a copy of the fifth installment of the H2G2 series, "Mostly Harmless". My collection ends at "So long, and Thanks for all the Fish" and I've not opened any of them in several years.
LOL, yeah.
There were spaces in there that would have made me exhale to squeeze through.
Yup. We need to be looking NOW for the "September Chronicles" thread home. Because by 9/01/2005, we need to be ready to move, and that takes preparation.
Whether NickNamedBob contributes a verse to the move is up to him -- I'm stil trying to figure out how to record such for history.
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