Posted on 07/04/2011 3:09:59 PM PDT by RussP
Potential Problems for Conservatives in the Republican Presidential Primary
July 3, 2011 -- The 2012 Republican Presidential Primary campaign already has several conservative candidates, and more may enter the race. On the surface, that seems to be good for conservative voters. After all, choice is good, and more choice is better, isn't it?
Not necessarily. In this case, too much choice could cause a problem -- a serious problem. The conservative candidates could split the conservative vote and allow a "moderate" such as Mitt Romney to win the nomination.
The splitting of votes among similar candidates is a fundamental problem of our "plurality" voting system. That's why the Democrat and Republican parties each field a single candidate in the general election. Imagine the Republicans fielding two candidates in the general election, against one Democrat. Good idea? Yeah, the Democrats would love it!
If "Tea Party" Republicans don't somehow manage to converge on a single candidate fairly early in the primary season, the nomination is likely to go to Romney. I don't know the solution to that problem, but I do know that the first step is to recognize the problem. As the list of candidates grows, I have yet to hear anyone else even mention it.
Ideally, the conservative candidates will put their party's (and the nation's) interests ahead of their own personal ambitions and bow out once it becomes clear that they are unlikely to win the nomination. But deciding when to bow out is not a simple matter. And if two or more conservative candidates end up in an extended close race, all but one of them needs to be "mature" enough to give it up before Romney wraps it up. What are the chances of that?
There are technical solutions, but they are very unlikely to be adopted for this election cycle, if ever. One is called "Approval Voting." Approval Voting is very similar to our current voting system, with the added twist that it allows voters to vote for, or "approve," more than one candidate. That simple change has major implications. Approval Voting makes a lot of sense for primary elections with many candidates.
By the way, vote-splitting isn't the only potential problem for conservatives in the Republican Primary election. With no primary challenge to Obama, Democrats are essentially free to register as Republicans and vote in the Republican primary. In states with "open" primaries, they don't even need to register as Republicans. If that were done on a large scale, it could be a huge problem for Republicans, particularly "Tea Party" Republicans.
What is the solution to that problem? First, "open" primaries should end, and second, voters should be prohibited from changing their party affiliation within several months preceeding a primary election. Unfortunately, these ideas are very unlikely to gain traction until one party is bitten and bitten hard. Let's just hope that doesn't happen to Republicans this time around.
Several conservatives?
Then there's only one alternative. Expose mitt romneycare as the SOB liberal that he is and get him out of the running.
The open primary problem was obvious 4 years ago, and it hasn’t been fixed. This is like deju vu all over again.
The obvious solution to the problem of the conservative vote being split is for McRomney to bow out early. Someone please send the dewd a memo.
Perry could change that if he jumps in.
Also - there ARE other RINOs too, Pawlenty, Gingrich...Huntsman...why aren’t they splitting Romney votes?
Perry could change that if he jumps in.
Also - there ARE other RINOs too, Pawlenty, Gingrich...Huntsman...why aren’t they splitting Romney votes?
The credibility of the Republican party in offering an alternative to the socialism and crony capitalism of the Democrats is far more on the ropes than conservatism particularly with the military. If the Republicans wind up with a RINO again they may be replaced by 2016.
It is a conservative revolution. Thanks to the Tea Party!
Former democratic campaign manager for Al Gore’s Texas campaign Rick Perry is as big a RINO as you will find anywhere.
If you think he is the answer, you have the wrong question.
You think Perry would split enough of the RINO vote away from Romney?
So let me get this straight. You’re all for choices in the primary process as long as they’re what you define as conservative choices. If there’s a chance that someone you deem to not be a conservative has a chance to win the nomination, then you want to rig the system to block him or her. Sickening.
Once and for all, it is the REPUBLICAN Party, not the Conservative Party. What part of that simple concept do you not understand?
The part that if a conservative does not win the nomination, Obama is reelected.
Obama stands a better than even money chance of being reelected no matter who the Republican nominee is.
Agreed... But I am not voting for a moderate this year. The moderates and liberals got us into this mess. We aren’t going to fix it by electing more moderates. If the liberals take us further down the road to ruin, then they are just setting us up for a conservative takeover.
If you think a third party for conservatives is the answer, you are sadly mistaken. All that would do is to split the vote and hand the gov’t over completely to the Democrats for a generation or more. Sorry, that’s just reality, whether you like it or not.
The whole idea of a conservative third party is absurd. Think about it. If you can’t convince Republicans to nominate a conservative, how are you going to convince the general public to elect one?
Republicans in general may not be conservative enough for you, but they are certainly more conservative on average than the general public.
Voting for a moderate does nothing but kick the can further down the road.
I for the life of me can't understand how ANYBODY could be wishy washy enough to consider voting for a moderate in this election considering the climate we are in and the state of our economy presently.
Its really up to the Republican Nat’l Committee to determine the rules as to what delegates will be seated.
Any state can elect to have open primaries or whatever, but that doesn’t mean that the party has to honor them. And if the people are told up front there shouldn’t be a problem.
2012 could definitely be another RINO nominee for the Republicans- but the fault goes to the party committees for not thinking it out in advance to reform the nomination protocols.
Voting for a moderate does nothing but kick the can further down the road.
I for the life of me can't understand how ANYBODY could be wishy washy enough to consider voting for a moderate in this election considering the climate we are in and the state of our economy presently.
Where did I say anything about “rigging the system”? I merely pointed out a potential problem for conservatives, because I am one. Moderates and liberals also need to consider the issue of vote-splitting if they are smart.
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