Posted on 10/08/2012 1:47:32 PM PDT by zencycler
Look at the new 7-Day average numbers Gallup now has, as of Oct 7th, showing Obama getting 50% to Romney's 45%. (Link - 7 day at Upper Right) Here's the problem:
Gallup says the 3-day average, pre-debate, was 0-50% and R-45%, and also says the average for the 3 days after the debate (Oct 4 to Oct 6) was 0-47% and R-47%.
So by my calculation, in order to get the 7-day average back to where Gallup now has it, here's what would have to happen:
Date___10/1___10/2___10/3___10/4___10/5___10/6___10/7___Avg.
Obama___50____50____50____47____47____47____59____50.0
Romney__45____45____45____47____47____47____39____45.0
There is NO WAY that the one-day polling on 10/7 suddenly could have surged to 59% for Obama and 39% for Romney, and based on Gallup's own numbers for Oct. 1 to Oct. 6, I don't see any other way for them to get to this 7-day rolling average.
Am I missing something?
Are you sure that Gallup uses a 3 day moving average like Rasmussen? I thought he used a 7 day average.
But regardless, your point is valid.
Yes the crack pipe that those over at Gallup are smoking as well as the DOJ investigation *laughs*
Gallup plays with the numbers all the time. They had a 7 point swing once, meaning a 21 increase in the three day average. They have been doing this and it has nothing to do with the Gov’t. suing them. They no longer show the “internals” unless you pay them. They are not using Likely voters in the same consistency they did in prior elections. It is more of the fraud.
I am worried he will ‘win’ just like Chavez ‘won’ today
possibly with actual tanks in the US streets too
It is just an outlier. Pay no attention to it.
Gallup must of borrowed some of the Zogby magic sauce.
look at the 7 day averages.
10/1 50 44
10/2 49 45
10/3 49 45
10/4 50 45
10/5 49 46
10/6 49 46
10/7 50 45
This is not a huge swing. They were never tied in this poll of registered voters.
434
Patience.
maybe the stunning improvement in the Friday jobs report was a real game changer out there when Obama magically caused unemployment to recede...
It’s Gallup! The outfit David Axelrod threatens. Ignore it.
A 7 day rolling average of REGISTERED voters means exactly jack and squat.
This is nothing more than a headline hump by Gallup.
I think you are confusing the 7 day tracker with their 3 day tracker. They do both. The 3 day tracker was 47-47. The 7 day is 49-46.
How did Romney get 39 on October 7th- Rasmussen had him at 49?
and registered voters is a meaningless sample
On October 7 they only talked to 10 voters—6 of them were for Obama and 4 for Romney. The figures came out as 59% and 39% because one of the voters on each side was “not all there.”
Perhaps, you're missing that polls are accurate 19 times out of 20, 95% of the time.
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