Posted on 10/29/2012 5:09:42 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Taken last week, the poll found that only 37 percent of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction. For an incumbent president to win reelection, that number normally must exceed 40 percent. “Everyone but the core Democratic constituencies holds the strongly held feeling that the country is off on the wrong track,” Goeas said.
For the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent. According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).
Will Nate Silver bitterly cling to his unrealistic projections?
Too close. Republicans need to do better.
These pollsters have not done their homework. They could have avoided major embarrassment if they simply read Nate Silver’s blog.
Who cares about Silver?
The ultimate irony in the polls the past two weeks is how many have shown Obama mired at 47%? It would be such sweet justice for Romney if that’s where Obama ended up.
Email message from Romney:
“Tonight, Ann and I are keeping the people in Hurricane Sandy’s path in our thoughts and prayers.
I hope that if you can, you’ll reach out to your neighbors who may need help getting ready for the storm — especially your elderly neighbors. And if you can give of your resources or time, please consider supporting your local Red Cross organization — visit www.redcross.org to get involved.
For safety’s sake, as you and your family prepare for the storm, please be sure to bring any yard signs inside. In high winds they can be dangerous, and cause damage to homes and property.
I’m never prouder of America than when I see how we pull together in a crisis. There’s nothing that we can’t handle when we stand together.
Stay safe and God Bless,
Mitt Romney”
Yet RCP conveniently leaves this out if their average. In 2008 it was included.
Obama is going to get credit/take credit for anything any anybody that survives the storm. He will be on TV a lot running the show. He and Michelle will be caring for people in shelters. We will hear that without big government help we all perish.
He will sweep to a landslide unless we associate him in people’s minds with the storm. The campaign maybe can’t do it but it must be done. His karma, his curse, more of his destruction. The storm just finishing off what he started. Consequences of turning our back on God. People somehow have to associate the destruction with Obama.
No other way. If he wins it will be said that God brought the storm to bring him victory and he will be magnitudes worse.
They don’t need more armchair managers. Get out there and help!
Yeah ok, whatever you say.
There will be rain and some more rain and some people will have the power go out.
They will be back to work on Thurs.
Politico is saying Obama has retaken a one point lead in the new Battleground Poll. I expect this ia a “registered voters” vs. “likely voters” sort of difference. If so, Politico is being deliberately misleading. Relying on the “registered voters” poll at this stage is pointless. Unfortunately, I cannot get to the source document, the new Battleground Poll, to see what it actually says. It should be up on the net soon enough.
Politico is saying Obama has retaken a one point lead in the new Battleground Poll. I expect this ia a “registered voters” vs. “likely voters” sort of difference. If so, Politico is being deliberately misleading. Relying on the “registered voters” poll at this stage is pointless. Unfortunately, I cannot get to the source document, the new Battleground Poll, to see what it actually says. It should be up on the net soon enough.
Politico is saying Obama has retaken a one point lead in the new Battleground Poll. I expect this ia a “registered voters” vs. “likely voters” sort of difference. If so, Politico is being deliberately misleading. Relying on the “registered voters” poll at this stage is pointless. Unfortunately, I cannot get to the source document, the new Battleground Poll, to see what it actually says. It should be up on the net soon enough.
This.
Having said that, Goez and Lake are very, very reputable and reliable, and very credible. I always take their polls/reports very seriously. This is good news indeed.
Let us not let up. Let us totally crush the Democrats and the evil MSM.
I’ve been saying this for months....not sure how scientific it is but: In todays partisan environment how could any party win the House of Reps and not also win the Presidency? It doesn’t make any sense that someone would pull the lever for their local GOP Congressmen and also Obama (and Visa versa for that matter). This isn’t the 1980’s or even the 1990’s in that regard. This is an ideological battle so, I’ll say it again, “Whoever wins the House will win the presidency.” If the House goes Republcan Mitt will win the Presidency and everybody says the House will Go Republican. Just something to think about. Tell me where I’m wrong.......and I’ll counter if need be.
Cwith Mathews is deeply saddened.
Pray for America
The Lames will
1. ignore this poll or call it an outlier(like they did with Gallup).
2. concoct their own over-sampled Dim poll that shows Zero up by 6.
3. say that with this poll and their own poll the race is a dead heat.
4. say that national polls no longer matter cause it’s all about Ohio.
Turnout is everything. We must not become complacent.
“Should Romney win by 5 percentage points” the Criminal Agitators Formerly Known as ACORN won’t be able to steal the election.
Even if that’s true, the fact that this election is even somewhat close, given Obama’s failure and especially given recent events in Benghazi, is deplorable. It proves that the public education system is an absolute failure (critical thinking skills are clearly not engaged). It proves that the MSM has a strangle-hold on Americans’ minds and opinions. I resent sharing my air with these people.
One day last week when Rasmussen had Romney up five and Gallup had him up six, RCP included the Zogby poll that had Romney down three, a poll they had not included all year (and haven't included since). The reason might be bias, but it might also be simply they want to keep the race within a one point margin so people keep coming back and checking throughout the day (increasing their ad revenue). I've noticed when Romney hit's 1% over Obama in the average, they start throwing in "fishy" polls to bring the average back down.
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