Posted on 10/29/2012 5:09:42 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Taken last week, the poll found that only 37 percent of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction. For an incumbent president to win reelection, that number normally must exceed 40 percent. “Everyone but the core Democratic constituencies holds the strongly held feeling that the country is off on the wrong track,” Goeas said.
For the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent. According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).
We still need to ride through the middle of ‘em with all guns blazing.
I doubt complacency will play into this election. Republicans don’t just want to BEAT Obama, they want to TROUNCE him and repudiate his liberal agenda.
Maybe Sandy is warning to democrtas what’s to come if they vote for O.
Hopefully the Hurricane keeps the Libs home and scared to come out to vote.
Nate is a fag.
That is why he can’t see past his erotic fixation on obama.
Any insight?
This is Battleground’s “vote election model” which would have to be the one Brit Hume referenced yesterday on Fox News Sunday.
The political elite and pollsters have no idea how angry Americans are and how determined they are to throw Obama and his cronies out. I am looking for a landslide followed by a wave of criminal prosecutions for Obama, Clinton, Biden, Holder, Napolitano, Geithner, and many others.
Bump!!
Yes.
The aspect of the Battleground Poll that shows obama up 1 is the raw number...sort of like what a few weeks ago we would call “registered voters”.
But the number where Romney is up five, is more like what we would call “likely voters”. The point being, after a series of diagnostic questions related to intensity and resolve to vote, Romney is up big. Enthusiasm is all with Romney.
Of course, it “may” not play out that way. But it probably will.
We have every right to be pleased and not at all surprised with what this Battleground poll shows (in both numbers).
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.