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Can anyone solve a statistical probability problem for me?
N/A | Feb 2, 2016 | vanity

Posted on 02/02/2016 1:35:32 PM PST by jmaroneps37

I am completing my family tree which goes back 39 generations on one branch and 14 on another. I would like to explain to my grandchildren how unique the DNA combination they have is. We have roots to a canonized saint in our bloodline as well as an American Revolutionary War solider and a famous Irish revolutionary hero too. I just need to show the children how small the odds are of duplicating our family tree. Anyone that can help please Freepmail me, Thanks much


TOPICS: Education; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: genealogy; helixmakemineadouble; statistics
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To: Dalberg-Acton
I can’t imagine reliable records being available prior to 1850.

If there were people living there you'll find records. I have a copy of one of my ancestor's wills dated from 1690. He lived in what is now Chesapeake VA, was Norfolk County then and the records were in the Norfolk Court House. I didn't find them, my cousin did. The will itself is a hoot. The son got the farm and all the livestock, his mother got to live with him until she died, one daughter got a mattress and the other got a spoon. A spoon. Not a set of spoons.. A spoon.

Churches are a good resource too, especially if you go back to before your family's American progenitor emigrated here. They have baptismal records and marriage and death records going back to the late middle ages in some cases.

21 posted on 02/02/2016 1:50:36 PM PST by pgkdan (The Silent Majority Stands With TRUMP!)
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To: jmaroneps37

I think you are a genetic special snow flake.

Just like all the other genetic special snow flakes.


22 posted on 02/02/2016 1:51:17 PM PST by MeanWestTexan (Beware Obama's Reichstag Fire.)
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To: jmaroneps37

Just explain that the solution you are seeking is over the rationals.


23 posted on 02/02/2016 1:51:33 PM PST by BBB333 (Q: Which is grammatically correct? Joe Biden IS or Joe Biden ARE an idiot?)
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To: PA-RIVER

Or how about Hillary winning a coin toss 6 times in a row yesterday which SURPRISE nobody questions! Hey it’s only the race to the White house!


24 posted on 02/02/2016 1:51:51 PM PST by GrandJediMasterYoda (Can we please kill the guy already who invented the saying "My bad"?)
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To: Idaho_Cowboy
if you flip a penny 600 times there is a 100% chance you will get very bored.

Unless you're Hillary, then you just keep winning.

25 posted on 02/02/2016 1:51:56 PM PST by pgkdan (The Silent Majority Stands With TRUMP!)
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To: Dalberg-Acton

Church records are fairly reliable and they are kept for pretty much forever.


26 posted on 02/02/2016 1:52:34 PM PST by Harmless Teddy Bear (Proud Infidel, Gun Nut, Religious Fanatic and Freedom Fiend)
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To: jmaroneps37

Yup, they’re thermodynamic miracles... of course so are the other 6 billion people on the planet. But yes we all spawn from a truly unique and highly unlikely combination.


27 posted on 02/02/2016 1:52:54 PM PST by discostu (This is a different kind of flying... all together.)
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

On average, a “generation” has been determined to be 18 years.

The “baby boomer generation” is thereby born between 1946 and 1964.

BTW, we BBGs hate you
:-)


28 posted on 02/02/2016 1:53:17 PM PST by Cletus.D.Yokel (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alterations: The acronym defines the science.)
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To: jmaroneps37

Whatever you do, Don’t Divide By Zero!


29 posted on 02/02/2016 1:54:27 PM PST by outofsalt ( If history teaches us anything it's that history rarely teaches us anything.)
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To: jmaroneps37

Well, if your family tree dates back to Eddie Longshanks then you and I are cousins.......sort of.


30 posted on 02/02/2016 1:54:50 PM PST by Hot Tabasco (Dear Santa: Please find a home for every homeless and unwanted cat and dog that is suffering)
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To: outofsalt
Whatever you do, Don’t Divide By Zero!

And don't type "Google" into Google.

31 posted on 02/02/2016 1:55:07 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: heights

WRONG! It’s 111


32 posted on 02/02/2016 1:55:46 PM PST by outofsalt ( If history teaches us anything it's that history rarely teaches us anything.)
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To: jmaroneps37

Are you referring to Y-DNA or mtDNA or autosomal DNA?


33 posted on 02/02/2016 1:55:46 PM PST by PghBaldy (12/14 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15 - 1030am - Obama's advance team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: Blood of Tyrants

I got back as far as Noah but the records were lost in a boating accident.


34 posted on 02/02/2016 1:56:10 PM PST by Resolute Conservative
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To: Blood of Tyrants

When you are able to trace your ancestors back to Europe, the church kept vital records such as births, weddings, and deaths. Many of those records survive today.
.........
True but except for the nobility— records of births weddings and deaths only start in 1500’s and 1600’s. My understanding is that this was one of the results of the reformation.


35 posted on 02/02/2016 1:56:25 PM PST by ckilmer (q)
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To: jmaroneps37

Can anyone solve a statistical probability problem for me?

Probably not.


36 posted on 02/02/2016 1:57:18 PM PST by DaxtonBrown (ANOTHER)
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To: jmaroneps37
Introduction to Probability and Statistics
37 posted on 02/02/2016 1:58:49 PM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Idaho_Cowboy
You will get K heads out of 600 flips using this simple formula

600!/(K!*(600-K)!*2^600 )

There, that should just about do it...

38 posted on 02/02/2016 1:59:28 PM PST by HangnJudge (Cthulhu for President, why vote for a lesser Evil)
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To: jmaroneps37

What are the odds that you exist, as you, today?
http://visual.ly/what-are-odds


39 posted on 02/02/2016 1:59:46 PM PST by donna (Radicalized Christians become missionaries; then, they tell everyone that Jesus loves them!)
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To: jmaroneps37

Gee,, and I thought my family lineage was special,,,
we are all special the learning point..


40 posted on 02/02/2016 2:02:55 PM PST by ßuddaßudd (>> F U B O << "What the hell kind of country is this if I can only hate a man if he's white?")
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