9 Observations and Outcomes From the Wisconsin Waterloo

conservativereview.com ^ | April 06, 2016 | Daniel Horowitz

[Berlin_Freeper]

This race began with 17 candidates, but because of the unprecedented coverage of Donald Trump it really has been a one-man race for most of the election.  There has been a false choice between whether people love Trump or hate him – just by virtue of the media coverage alone.  Given the divided field and the lack of coverage, Ted Cruz lacked the ability to stand out and coalesce people behind a positive conservative, anti-establishment message. 

Tonight’s sweeping victory in Wisconsin proves team Cruz’s original thesis: as long as this is a two-man race and as long as Cruz can get his message out, Trump can be defeated in almost every state.  In many ways, this could be the Waterloo of the election.

Here are some observations and outcomes from this race:

1. Cruz Consolidates Support: Wisconsin is the first real primary after the other non-Trump candidates (except for Kasich) exited the race.  Arizona had a lot of votes already banked from early voting, and Utah is an anomaly, given the Mormon dislike for Trump.  Wisconsin demonstrates the Cruz thesis that he can win in a two-man race and even won big with Kasich dragging him down, even in an open primary.  He will likely come away with 48% of the total vote and 54% of the registered Republican voters.
   
   
2. Winning Trump Demographics: Many pundits are saying Cruz was expected to win in the Badger State, but most polls had Trump ahead 30-19 before Cruz began campaigning there.  This state is an older white demographic with a large share that is not college educated – tailor made for Trump.  In fact, there are so few Republicans in the state under 30 – Cruz’s best age group – that the exit polls didn’t even register them as a data point.  Yet, Cruz won across the board with every important demographic displayed in the exit polls.  He won non-college educated voters and the lowest income voters.  Cruz also won every age group including voters over 65 – Trump’s best demographic – by 11 points. 
   
   
3. No Gender Gap: For all the talk about the gender gap, Cruz’s win was perfectly uniform among men and women, winning both by 13%.  Again, this proves that it’s more than just galvanizing anti-Trump demographics.  When Cruz is actually able to focus on a state for a full week or two and get out his message to the voters, it’s a different race.  For the first time ever, Cruz not only crushed Trump among those who voted based on “shared values” but tied Trump among those who wanted the candidate who would bring the most change to Washington.
   
   
4. Cruz Combining Conservative Coalition: Some Trump supporters are suggesting that Cruz is just becoming the de facto establishment candidate and winning their coalition.  In reality, Cruz won the “very conservative” voters by a whopping 65-28 margin and increased his reach to “somewhat conservative” voters, winning them by 11 points.  Trump only won self-described moderates.  Also, Cruz won a resounding victory even though just 65% of voters were actually registered Republicans.  Cruz tied Trump among non-Republican voters and won the conservative bastion in the Milwaukee suburbs by 40 points.  He won Republican voters by 22 points.  It’s clear that he would have swept all of the districts had this been a closed primary. 
   
   
5. Republicans Can Win Wisconsin in the Fall: Republicans have not won Wisconsin since 1984, but they have an excellent shot at it this fall.  Hillary will still likely be the nominee but she lost the state to Bernie Sanders and the combined GOP turnout swamped the Democrat turnout.  If Cruz is the nominee, he can place some of the Midwestern states Hillary lost (yes, including Iowa) in play. 
   
   
6. Kasich is an Embarrassment: Kasich came in dead last in almost every early state and barely competed on Super Tuesday so he can play in the Midwest.  He parked himself in Michigan for weeks but came in behind Cruz, even though Cruz barely spent a penny in the state.  Now, in another Midwest state, Kasich couldn’t crack 15%.  Will the media finally ask him tough questions? 
   
   
7. Cruz Momentum: Trump will wind up going a full month without a victory.  After winning in North Dakota, Cruz will likely sweep Colorado on Saturday and the remainder of Wyoming delegates the following Saturday – all before New York.  While New York and the Northeast are presumed to be Cruz’s weakest areas, there are some promising signs for him there.  All of those contests (except for Rhode Island, which is irrelevant because it’s small and proportional) are closed primaries, and with Cruz performing well in wealthier suburbs, even in open primaries, he certainly has a shot to peel off districts in New York.  Trump will barely net anything out of Connecticut and Rhode Island. Cruz has an excellent chance to win Maryland and Delaware and an open shot at winning a lot of delegates in Pennsylvania.  Time will tell whether Wisconsin gives him momentum to win statewide in Pennsylvania.   However, with many Kasich voters realizing they are wasting their vote, enough defections can flip the state to Cruz.  PPP found that Kasich voters in Wisconsin preferred Cruz over Trump 51-19. 
   
   
8. Path Forward: Almost everything after New York and the rest of the northeast primaries on the following week should be solid for Cruz.  He should win Indiana, Nebraska, Oregon, and Washington.  Trump has the inside track in only one state between April 26 and the big June 7 finale: West Virginia.  Then, on June 7, Cruz will easily sweep South Dakota and Montana (both winner-take-all) and New Mexico (proportional). [see spreadsheet below] With Kasich becoming weaker and weaker, Cruz should have no problem winning California as well; the question is how many districts Trump can win in the south and east and some urban areas.  New Jersey is more of a Trump state, especially with an open primary, but if Cruz indeed wins all these states and Kasich becomes a non-factor, he will definitely be able to put the Garden State in play. 
   
   
9. Winning a Mandate: Trump will not win 1237 delegates before the convention.  The question is whether Cruz can catch him in a plurality or get close to it and win a mandate.  It’s quite obvious that Trump’s victories during the first half of the race were a result of unprecedented name ID and a divided field.  He would have lost most states had this been a one-on-one contest, which tells you that the majority of voters don’t want him.  Thus, even if Cruz comes up short of a plurality, as long as he wins the aforementioned states, the Texas Senator will have a moral mandate when he likely wins a delegate race on the second ballot.  Trump will argue that it doesn’t reflect the will of the voters, but it’s clear that 60% of voters in most states don’t want him.  He only won in previous states because of Rubio, and the remaining wins come as a result of Kasich staying in the race or non-Republican voters.   
   

Pasted below is my updated spreadsheet showing Cruz’s most realistic path to winning a plurality of delegates.  It will be a steep climb to win that many districts in New York, but even if he falls short, Trump can easily be kept below 1100 delegates.  Between the unbound delegates and Rubio’s pile, it’s not out of the question for Cruz to overtake Trump on the first ballot, especially if he wins a solid mandate on June 7 to close out the primaries.

[The Continental Op]

Trump will, at a minimum, reach the convention with 1200 (still might get 1237), Cruz a couple of hundred behind. I doubt very much that the party has ever failed to nominate a candidate with that many delegates going in. If they decide to make this time the first, they will be making a huge mistake. Much better for the long term health of the GOP to nominate Trump in that situation rather than be seen forever by half the party as stealing the election.

Imagine how you would have felt if Gore had won with his phony “hanging
chad” nonsense. Well, that is exactly how the majority of party voters will feel after Cleveland should Rove and the rest succeed in depriving the clear and undisputed frontrunner of the nomination. If you think people are angry now, just wait.

[HamiltonJay]

Sorry, Cruz is eliminated from 1237 on 4/26, if you don’t understand that you need some brushing up on 3rd grade mathematics.

I know, I know... a contested convention or bust... the last prayer for the Cruz backer.

[kjam22]

Yes Cruz is mathematically eliminated on 4/26, on that date there are not enough delegates left that even if he got all of them he can’t reach 1237.

No.. he is not mathematically eliminated. Eliminated means out of the race, that he can't get 1,237. That simply isn't true based on the system. Does it mean he will need a contested convention... well yeah. But he is NOT mathematically eliminated.

[kjam22]

SO if Cruz ends up with 1,237 at the convention.... how do you reconcile that with your statement that he was mathematically eliminated? Goofball....

[Cboldt]

-- Nobody is mathematically eliminated until someone gets 1,237 delegates. --

Showing the importance of definitions. By this definition, kasich, Rubio, Carson, and Bush are not mathematically eliminated either.

Technically, using this definition, nobody can be mathematically eliminated until the convention selects a slate. Just saying, the primary races can;t produce mathematical elimination, because the convention is the decider.

[kjam22]

Yep... words have meaning... unless Trumpy is saying them.

[hawkaw]

Well I guess you miss the Quinn. polling out of Pennsylvania this morning show Trump at 39% and Cruz now surging to 30 %. Of course many of this state’s delayed are not bound.

[dware]

How happy will Cruz supporters be when Hitlery gets elected? When they find out sCruz was nothing more than a stooge for the GOPe?

[HamiltonJay]

Eliminate -

Remove from consideration.

On 4/26 Cruz is eliminated from reaching 1237 delegates via the primaries folks, you can try to argue your semantics all you like, those are the facts.

There is no consideration after 4/26 that gets Cruz to 1237 via the primary process... he’s eliminated.

Now, can he get there via some other method? Sure, you can play the contested convention game, but he is eliminated from reaching 1237 delegates through the primaries.

Anyone could in theory get 1237 in a contested election, even someone who’s not on the ballot, so if that makes you feel better, feel free, but it does not make my statement incorrect.

[Jim Noble]

As long as the Republican Party exists as a corporate entity, they will not, under any circumstances, nominate Ted Cruz.

Ted Cruz called Mitch McConnell a liar on the floor of the Senate. The way things work on the third planet from the Sun, that makes a Cruz nomination impossible.

[SMM48]

Cruz spent the first part of his campaign staying somewhat quiet and building his ground game.

Not quite. He spent the first half drafting off Trump so Trump could do all the dirty work. The current Cruz is nothing like the Cruz when he announced.

[Fundamentally Fair]

This is the same crap technique Democrats use.

It's spin. It's what all campaigns do.

That includes the Trump campaign and it's FR supporters.

[kjam22]

The primary process does not necessarily determine the candidate. The delegate vote is the determining factor. He cannot be eliminated until he cannot get 1,237 delegates. Goofball....

[Durbin]

So you are saying he didn’t prematurely go after the frontrunner? Seeing as to what happened to the rest of the candidates that tried that, he was smart. And there’s no denying his ground game across the country has been impeccable.

[Rashputin]

"Does it mean he will need a contested convention . . . well yeah"

IOW, all he has to do is screw the those who voted in the primaries.

[libbylu]

... Wisconsin is the last Bible waving state. He is toast from here on out.
It is not a bible waving state, less than 40%, and what if it were? Did you read that Cruz won 22% more of the actual republican vote than Trump? And they basically tied among independents?

[kjam22]

Now, can he get there via some other method? Sure, you can play the contested convention game, but he is eliminated from reaching 1237 delegates through the primaries.

See.... that's how Trumpy thinks. That's why he'll never win a contested convention.. in my humble opinion.

[kjam22]

It’s called a runoff.... it is the way many elections work in this country. Every republican nominee since Lincoln has had a majority of Delegates. Trumpy isn’t special... he’ll have to get the majority too.

[Cboldt]

-- Yep... words have meaning. --

Yes. The world generally views us through the words we use.

FWIW, the definition of "mathematically eliminated" that we were discussing is unconventional. Most people use that shorthand to describe whether or not it is possible for a candidate to obtain 1237 delegates in advance of the convention. Using the conventional definition, Kasich, Rubio, Carson, et al are mathematically eliminated. The only two candidates who have not been mathematically eliminated are Cruz and Trump.

[dragonblustar]

Wisconsin is the last Bible waving state. He is toast from here on out.

Problem with "Bible waving states" is that their guy sides with a false prophet.