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9 Observations and Outcomes From the Wisconsin Waterloo
conservativereview.com ^
| April 06, 2016
| Daniel Horowitz
Posted on 04/06/2016 7:01:32 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
This race began with 17 candidates, but because of the unprecedented coverage of Donald Trump it really has been a one-man race for most of the election. There has been a false choice between whether people love Trump or hate him just by virtue of the media coverage alone. Given the divided field and the lack of coverage, Ted Cruz lacked the ability to stand out and coalesce people behind a positive conservative, anti-establishment message.
Tonights sweeping victory in Wisconsin proves team Cruzs original thesis: as long as this is a two-man race and as long as Cruz can get his message out, Trump can be defeated in almost every state. In many ways, this could be the Waterloo of the election.
Here are some observations and outcomes from this race:
- Cruz Consolidates Support: Wisconsin is the first real primary after the other non-Trump candidates (except for Kasich) exited the race. Arizona had a lot of votes already banked from early voting, and Utah is an anomaly, given the Mormon dislike for Trump. Wisconsin demonstrates the Cruz thesis that he can win in a two-man race and even won big with Kasich dragging him down, even in an open primary. He will likely come away with 48% of the total vote and 54% of the registered Republican voters.
- Winning Trump Demographics: Many pundits are saying Cruz was expected to win in the Badger State, but most polls had Trump ahead 30-19 before Cruz began campaigning there. This state is an older white demographic with a large share that is not college educated tailor made for Trump. In fact, there are so few Republicans in the state under 30 Cruzs best age group that the exit polls didnt even register them as a data point. Yet, Cruz won across the board with every important demographic displayed in the exit polls. He won non-college educated voters and the lowest income voters. Cruz also won every age group including voters over 65 Trumps best demographic by 11 points.
- No Gender Gap: For all the talk about the gender gap, Cruzs win was perfectly uniform among men and women, winning both by 13%. Again, this proves that its more than just galvanizing anti-Trump demographics. When Cruz is actually able to focus on a state for a full week or two and get out his message to the voters, its a different race. For the first time ever, Cruz not only crushed Trump among those who voted based on shared values but tied Trump among those who wanted the candidate who would bring the most change to Washington.
- Cruz Combining Conservative Coalition: Some Trump supporters are suggesting that Cruz is just becoming the de facto establishment candidate and winning their coalition. In reality, Cruz won the very conservative voters by a whopping 65-28 margin and increased his reach to somewhat conservative voters, winning them by 11 points. Trump only won self-described moderates. Also, Cruz won a resounding victory even though just 65% of voters were actually registered Republicans. Cruz tied Trump among non-Republican voters and won the conservative bastion in the Milwaukee suburbs by 40 points. He won Republican voters by 22 points. Its clear that he would have swept all of the districts had this been a closed primary.
- Republicans Can Win Wisconsin in the Fall: Republicans have not won Wisconsin since 1984, but they have an excellent shot at it this fall. Hillary will still likely be the nominee but she lost the state to Bernie Sanders and the combined GOP turnout swamped the Democrat turnout. If Cruz is the nominee, he can place some of the Midwestern states Hillary lost (yes, including Iowa) in play.
- Kasich is an Embarrassment: Kasich came in dead last in almost every early state and barely competed on Super Tuesday so he can play in the Midwest. He parked himself in Michigan for weeks but came in behind Cruz, even though Cruz barely spent a penny in the state. Now, in another Midwest state, Kasich couldnt crack 15%. Will the media finally ask him tough questions?
- Cruz Momentum: Trump will wind up going a full month without a victory. After winning in North Dakota, Cruz will likely sweep Colorado on Saturday and the remainder of Wyoming delegates the following Saturday all before New York. While New York and the Northeast are presumed to be Cruzs weakest areas, there are some promising signs for him there. All of those contests (except for Rhode Island, which is irrelevant because its small and proportional) are closed primaries, and with Cruz performing well in wealthier suburbs, even in open primaries, he certainly has a shot to peel off districts in New York. Trump will barely net anything out of Connecticut and Rhode Island. Cruz has an excellent chance to win Maryland and Delaware and an open shot at winning a lot of delegates in Pennsylvania. Time will tell whether Wisconsin gives him momentum to win statewide in Pennsylvania. However, with many Kasich voters realizing they are wasting their vote, enough defections can flip the state to Cruz. PPP found that Kasich voters in Wisconsin preferred Cruz over Trump 51-19.
- Path Forward: Almost everything after New York and the rest of the northeast primaries on the following week should be solid for Cruz. He should win Indiana, Nebraska, Oregon, and Washington. Trump has the inside track in only one state between April 26 and the big June 7 finale: West Virginia. Then, on June 7, Cruz will easily sweep South Dakota and Montana (both winner-take-all) and New Mexico (proportional). [see spreadsheet below] With Kasich becoming weaker and weaker, Cruz should have no problem winning California as well; the question is how many districts Trump can win in the south and east and some urban areas. New Jersey is more of a Trump state, especially with an open primary, but if Cruz indeed wins all these states and Kasich becomes a non-factor, he will definitely be able to put the Garden State in play.
- Winning a Mandate: Trump will not win 1237 delegates before the convention. The question is whether Cruz can catch him in a plurality or get close to it and win a mandate. Its quite obvious that Trumps victories during the first half of the race were a result of unprecedented name ID and a divided field. He would have lost most states had this been a one-on-one contest, which tells you that the majority of voters dont want him. Thus, even if Cruz comes up short of a plurality, as long as he wins the aforementioned states, the Texas Senator will have a moral mandate when he likely wins a delegate race on the second ballot. Trump will argue that it doesnt reflect the will of the voters, but its clear that 60% of voters in most states dont want him. He only won in previous states because of Rubio, and the remaining wins come as a result of Kasich staying in the race or non-Republican voters.
Pasted below is my updated spreadsheet showing Cruzs most realistic path to winning a plurality of delegates. It will be a steep climb to win that many districts in New York, but even if he falls short, Trump can easily be kept below 1100 delegates. Between the unbound delegates and Rubios pile, its not out of the question for Cruz to overtake Trump on the first ballot, especially if he wins a solid mandate on June 7 to close out the primaries.
TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: cruz; wisconsin
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To: Berlin_Freeper
Wisconsin was rebel Cruz’s fantastic victory at Chancellorsville a few weeks before Gettysburg.
2
posted on
04/06/2016 7:03:16 AM PDT
by
central_va
(I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
3
posted on
04/06/2016 7:03:26 AM PDT
by
SunkenCiv
(Here's to the day the forensics people scrape what's left of Putin off the ceiling of his limo.)
To: Berlin_Freeper
The strict-constructionist candidate won the Republican primary.
The conservative candidate won a ten year supreme court seat.
It was a great day in Wisconsin!
4
posted on
04/06/2016 7:05:52 AM PDT
by
gorush
(History repeats itself because human nature is static)
To: Berlin_Freeper
Wisconsin is the last Bible waving state. He is toast from here on out.
5
posted on
04/06/2016 7:06:07 AM PDT
by
rwoodward
("god, guns and more ammo")
To: Berlin_Freeper
So all of the states Cruz loses = so what? There are more states.
Cruz wins a state = other guy is finished.
This is the same crap technique Democrats use.
6
posted on
04/06/2016 7:06:12 AM PDT
by
VanDeKoik
To: Berlin_Freeper
Cruz spent the first part of his campaign staying somewhat quiet and building his ground game. Seems to be paying off as of late when it comes to locking up delegates. But we’ll see going forward.
7
posted on
04/06/2016 7:07:26 AM PDT
by
Durbin
To: rwoodward
I think Cruz will win Pennsylvnia.....
8
posted on
04/06/2016 7:08:16 AM PDT
by
kjam22
(America need forgiveness from God..... even if Donald Trump doesn't)
To: Berlin_Freeper
Wisconsin was proof that the GOPe machine there is well oiled and functional... and that Cruz is every bit a part of it.
Kudos to Cruz and Jeb for the win. However, the spin that this changed the race is a bit of a stretch. We’ll see how things go in 2 weeks in NY.... when 95 delegates are are on the line.
Cruz is mathematically eliminated on 4/26. WI didn’t change that.
To: HamiltonJay
Nobody is mathematically eliminated until someone gets 1,237 delegates. Geez...
10
posted on
04/06/2016 7:10:41 AM PDT
by
kjam22
(America need forgiveness from God..... even if Donald Trump doesn't)
To: VanDeKoik
I’m guessing after Cruz gets wiped out in the northeast the narrative will be, “Trump wins in his backyard but Cruz hanging tough”. The media is hyping Cruz to stay in the race. That should be obvious.
11
posted on
04/06/2016 7:12:29 AM PDT
by
dowcaet
To: rwoodward
WI isn’t so much a bible waving state, but It was, and I stated it many times, probably the last best place for Cruz to pull an upset.
THe GOPe machine is battle tested and well proven there, and it gave Cruz a solid victory.
Such things do not exist in any othter state coming up... Sadly we will have to deal with 2 weeks of the race has changed, until NY where Trump once again demolishes Cruz... and then a week later, Cruz is mathematically eliminated from being able to get 1237.
Kudos to Cruz and Jeb on the win.
To: Berlin_Freeper
No Gender Gap: For all the talk about the gender gap, Cruzs win was perfectly uniform among men and women, winning both by 13%. Again, this proves that its more than just galvanizing anti-Trump demographics. When Cruz is actually able to focus on a state for a full week or two and get out his message to the voters, its a different race. For the first time ever, Cruz not only crushed Trump among those who voted based on shared values but tied Trump among those who wanted the candidate who would bring the most change to Washington.
No gender gap? Well I guess we can put to bed the “Trump has a women problem” meme. LOL.
13
posted on
04/06/2016 7:13:27 AM PDT
by
lodi90
(Clear choice for Conservatives now: TRUMP or lose)
To: kjam22
Yes Cruz is mathematically eliminated on 4/26, on that date there are not enough delegates left that even if he got all of them he can’t reach 1237.
Will he stick around? Sure... but he is eliminated from 1237.
Simple math.. JEEZ.
To: HamiltonJay
Reinventing Priebus, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker are all it Gope guys in one state....
To: Berlin_Freeper
This race began with 17 candidates,
*****************************
16 of them working for the Cheap Labor Express
16
posted on
04/06/2016 7:14:54 AM PDT
by
Lurkinanloomin
(Know Islam, No peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
To: Berlin_Freeper
Nonsense. Just go here and look at the individual county vote totals:
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/apr/05/wisconsin-primary-results-live-election-2016?CMP=twt_gu
Cruz won on the strength of the same highly Republican Milwaukee collar counties that have kept Scott Walker in office. Nothing wrong with that, but the truth is, without any conventional "ground game" type "retail politics", Trump has very broad-based support in WI and won far more counties despite having the Republican Governor, Speaker of the House, RNC Chairman and all media figures endorsing Cruz and badmouthing him.
Your example proves one thing: You can win WI as a Republican if you align yourself with the Republican Establishment. Southeast Wisconsin is Ground Zero for RNC Solidarity. Just substitute the newest member of the club for Romney:
17
posted on
04/06/2016 7:15:46 AM PDT
by
bigbob
To: Berlin_Freeper
More like Germany’s Battle of the Bulge.
To: HamiltonJay
and then a week later, Cruz is mathematically eliminated from being able to get 1237. Why do you keep saying that? Nobody is mathematically eliminated until someone else gets 1,237. That's the way the system works.
Trumpy should never have run for the Republican Nomination if he wasn't prepared to win a convention of delegates. No politician can personally trash everyone else in the race and then expect to win a convention of delegates. But, Trumpy had to run as a republican to do what he wanted to do... which was destroy Jeb. He accomplished his goal. Now he has to deal with a convention of delegates, and he has no chance there. Nada, zip, none.
19
posted on
04/06/2016 7:16:29 AM PDT
by
kjam22
(America need forgiveness from God..... even if Donald Trump doesn't)
To: princess leah
Its not just that, but the GOPE there also has had to fight back the left multiple times in 4 years... if there was a state where the GOPe could put up a strong fight, WI was it.
Kudos to Cruz and Jeb, I said many times if there was someplace left for Cruz to surprise WI was probably it.. However, there is nowhere for Cruz to go from here. He isn’t going to turn WI win into suddenly running the table...2 weeks NY votes, and I doubt highly Cruz will do better than a handful or two of the 95 delegates up for grabs there.
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