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Another regime change indication this time in solar data
watts Up With That? ^ | July 4, 2012 | Anthony Watts

Posted on 07/04/2012 1:49:37 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

Note: See also the 1997 regime change in global climate data by the same method, here

I’m happy to report that something I recognized and reported back in 2008 related to solar data has been independently confirmed by another source, and was a surprise when it showed up in my inbox two days ago.

Readers may recall that for some time I’ve been pointing out a strange anomaly in the Solar Geomagnetic Index that occurred in October 2005. In a story I wrote on Feb 13th, 2008 titled Where have all the sunspots gone? I plotted the Ap data and pointed out the event.

solar-geomagnetic-Ap Index

click for a larger image

I wrote then:

What is most interesting about the Geomagnetic Average Planetary Index graph above is what happened around October 2005. Notice the sharp drop in the magnetic index and the continuance at low levels.

This looks much like a “step function” that I see on GISS surface temperature graphs when a station has been relocated to a cooler measurement environment. In the case of the sun, it appears this indicates that something abruptly “switched off” in the inner workings of the solar dynamo. Note that in the prior months, the magnetic index was ramping up a bit with more activity, then it simply dropped and stayed mostly flat.

Since then, we’ve seen announcements like this:

BREAKING – major AAS solar announcement: Sun’s Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity

Posted on June 14, 2011 by

“If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades,” Hill said. “That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”

See the official press release here – “All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.”

Dr. Sam Outcalt : Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Michigan sent me this graph two days ago, showing his application of Hurst Rescaling to the Ap Solar Magnetic Index data. Using that method, he has independently identified the “step function switch off” I reported in Feb 2008:

The major regime transition is at the maximum of the integral at 2005.71, which corresponds to October 2005, the same date I identified.

Clearly the sun entered into a magnetic funk then, and has yet to come out of it.

We live in interesting times.

For more on Hurst ReScaling, see this paper: SIO_HurstReScale

UPDATE: As I expected he would, Dr. Leif Svalgaard takes exception to this characterization of the identification of October 2005 being a regime changepoint, saying:

While I agree that the sun is going quiet, the ‘step change’ is spurious. It is mainly due to a sporadic, single magnetic storm in September 2005: http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/sedoss/solact3/do?d=2005%2c09%2c04 and here is the next rotation: http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/sedoss/solact3/do?d=2005%2c10%2c01 You can find many such steps.

Such step changes happens all the time: http://www.leif.org/research/Ap-1844-now.png They are just weather, not climate.

I don’t think his analogy holds promise, because after the step change the “climate” of the solar dynamo stayed low, and then produced the lowest value in the record going back to 1844. See Leif’s graph (click to enlarge) which I’ve annotated:

While this is akin to the sustained drop starting in early 1871, clearly this was something new in the entire record.If we use smoothing to remove what Leif describes as weather noise, and magnify, we can see how this looks to be unique in the last century of data:

While it could be argued that this was a “weather” event, the facts remain that:

  1. In the 14 months prior to Oct 2005, the Ap index was on the rise
  2. It was a very sharp drop spanning a little over a month.

  3. It has not recovered to the average values in the preceding 14 months since then.
  4. Weather events are usually short term dynamics. The 2 rotation periods of the sun Leif refers to aren’t capable of maintaining the step change for the years following October 2005.
  5. Following the event, the Sun produced the lowest Ap value in the record in Dec 2008.
  6. Projections by others, including Livingston, suggest the sun has entered into a quiet magnetic state.

While I defer to Dr. Svalgaard’s overall superior knowledge on the dynamics of sun, and agree there are many sharp transitions in the Ap record, this looks to me to be a step change event of merit based on the factors listed above. I’ve yet to see a fully convincing explanation that this was a spurious event rather than a regime changepoint. But, I remain open to seeing such an explanation.


TOPICS: Astronomy; Conspiracy; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: catastrophism; climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; maunderminimum; solar

1 posted on 07/04/2012 1:49:42 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: TigerLikesRooster; landsbaum; Signalman; NormsRevenge; steelyourfaith; Lancey Howard; ...
OK,...Everyone have a great 4th.....

Meanwhile the Sun is up to some major changes it appears.

2 posted on 07/04/2012 1:58:07 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: All
From the comments:

**************************************EXCEROT****************************************

Dr. Lurtz says:

July 4, 2012 at 4:35 am

My Explanation:
a) Hydrogen burning occurs on the surface of the Sun’s Core.
b) Hot Sun [more fusion], Core expands making more H available from the Radiative Zone.
c) When the amount of H becomes less available [near the Core's surface] , the Core starts to shrink [less fusion] and the Sun becomes cooler.
d) Core shrinks until a new equilibrium is found [the Core is growing by fits and leaps -> it is the waste volume for burned H, that is, He].
e) Repeat the process.

Hot Sun [more fusion], massive inflowing H currents. Cool Sun [less fusion]. less inflowing H currents. Hot Sun, the H currents generate massive magnetic fields and produce Sun Spots. Cool Sun, the H currents are less, the magnetic field declines and, possibly, no Sun Spots.

During the Maunder Minimum, the Sun was cool for ~50 years. Faint traces of a 2×180 year cycle in the climate record [?? is there such a thing ??].

“Major regime transition” -> Sun cooling, core shrinking.

3 posted on 07/04/2012 2:04:26 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
“If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”

Don't be silly. Al Gore assured me that the sun doesn't affect the earth's temperature, and he's a Nobel Prize winner - the same recognition that Obama himself earned - so he must be right.

4 posted on 07/04/2012 2:11:37 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Regime change? I’ll gladly wear a few more sweaters if it means Obama is out of office!

On a more serious note - if one looks at the long-term cycles of the interglacial warm periods - we are past due (cycle wise) for another REAL ice age.


5 posted on 07/04/2012 2:17:33 PM PDT by 21twelve
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Some of us are going to see the start of the next mini-Ice Age. My guess is the reason the MSM is going hyperbolic about the warm temps in the US, is that they want to cover up the real fact that it is actually colder over much of the planet. The MSM is also falsely reporting warmth in the US right now. See this article below.

More on the 2012 US heat wave – not so hot if you look around at other locations

June actually ended up cooler than the normal in BOS (Boston) (-1.25F) and even NYC (Central Park -0.4F) and southeast despite the heat blast the end of the month (-2.0F in Jacksonville). Dulles despite the late month heat wave was SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (-0.6F) while DCA nearer the White House and Congress was (+1.1F) and Atlanta despite the all time record was just +0.1F.

Here is reality, not MSM fantasy land.


6 posted on 07/04/2012 2:26:54 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Think I'll bookmark this one. Perhaps the Independence Day celebrations of the future will be carried out in far different conditions then have been the case. Hope not, but facts surrounding that old Maunder Minimum period just doesn't go away.
And a happy 4th to you.
7 posted on 07/04/2012 2:47:24 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned.)
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To: Marine_Uncle
Thanks.

Just got off the phone with my daughter,....she is up in the High Desert just above the Cajon pass and it is Hot up there....) 100+

Rather cool and overcast down here ...75 at the moment.

8 posted on 07/04/2012 2:54:03 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: shibumi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CM5578DtnuI


9 posted on 07/04/2012 2:55:18 PM PDT by Salamander (I wanna hurt you just to hear you screaming my name.)
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To: Marine_Uncle; 21twelve; justa-hairyape
Some genuine discussion going on with this article at WUWT.....

More from the comments:

********************************************EXCERPT*********************************


10 posted on 07/04/2012 3:13:32 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: Marine_Uncle; 21twelve; justa-hairyape
Some genuine discussion going on with this article at WUWT.....

More from the comments:

********************************************EXCERPT*********************************


11 posted on 07/04/2012 3:14:00 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

And of course the sunspot index is very high right now, and the sun is quite active.

Article is from today but surreally ignores solar data since 2008....


12 posted on 07/04/2012 3:16:35 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: All
More:

****************************************EXCERPT******************************************

Leif Svalgaard says:

July 4, 2012 at 7:50 am

sean2829 says:
July 4, 2012 at 7:29 am
three questions. First, has the probability between Dalton vs. Maunder type events changed in his opinion for the next few decades, second, what type of evidence does he have beyond the L&P effect to support that probability and third, will there any any peer reviewed publications in the near future to discuss where the sun might be headed?
As the low solar activity predicted by us has come to pass, a small cottage industry [with several 'peer reviewed' papers - for what they are worth] has sprung up about a possible coming Maunder minimum. There is little doubt that at some time in the future a new Grand minimum will be coming our way. Whether it will happen real soon is anybody’s guess. At a recent international workshop that I convened this question was central. You can find most of the discussion chronicled in the presentations here: http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/1st_ISSI_Workshop
The contribution by Lockwood has more references.

13 posted on 07/04/2012 3:20:36 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Thanks E. I'll open up the WUWT web site for a closer view.
Currently average temp computed for Philly, 94F. Tomorrow projection 97, then next day cooling off a bit to low mid 90's. Sort of on the warm side. :)
14 posted on 07/04/2012 3:57:23 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned.)
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To: Salamander
insturmental from the movie of the same name Sunshine...
15 posted on 07/04/2012 4:34:35 PM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: Strategerist
Solar Activity is quantified a number of ways. If you look at Magnetic Index, it has been historically low since the last minimum. If you look at sunspot numbers, this current maximum has been lower compared to the previous 3-4 cycles.


16 posted on 07/04/2012 4:42:36 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape

Calculating the number of sunspots is such a crude numeric mrasuremebt, ....but how else can one made guesstimates about what the Sun is doing?


17 posted on 07/04/2012 5:35:22 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Solar Wind Speed, Magnetic Field Strength and UV Output can also be used. And you are correct that sunspot numbers are a very crude way to determine solar activity. Made even more inaccurate with the fact that they are counting more sunspots in modern times due to enhanced optics. If you look at some sunspot charts for the people who try to bias for the modern extra sensitive measurements, this has been a very weak solar maximum. In fact one of the weakest in modern times.


18 posted on 07/04/2012 6:12:52 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; 75thOVI; agrace; aimhigh; Alice in Wonderland; AndrewC; aragorn; ...
Thanks Ernest.



19 posted on 07/05/2012 3:42:13 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; SunkenCiv; All

They are predicting 103 on Saturday for my mid Atlantic location. Seems like global cooling is on vacation. Meanwhile I have just started the Atkins Diet, Induction Phase, so I can wear my bikini at the beach soon. It worked before, but I got careless. Wish me luck.


20 posted on 07/05/2012 11:24:42 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: gleeaikin
Seems like global cooling is on vacation.

Record cold and snowfalls in the Southern Hemisphere. Some place in Chile got in two weeks as much snow as it usually receives all season. Also, there were 25 states posting record lows in the month of June.
21 posted on 07/05/2012 11:39:15 PM PDT by aruanan
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To: aruanan; SunkenCiv; All

There was a recent report, I think for the US, but not sure that while record lows and highs usually run roughly the same, this past year the record highs vs lows are running 11 to 1 for highs. Around 15,000 to 1,300.


22 posted on 07/06/2012 9:52:14 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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