Posted on 09/30/2014 7:40:47 PM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide
Here is the math:
Ebola had infected about 4000 known cases by 2014-09-16.
Incubation up to 21 days.
Rate of new infections during incubation period: R2.0 (i.e. roughly doubling)
Population of earth: ~7.2 billion
Number of doublings from initial ~4000 to ~8 billion: 21
21 X 21 days = 441 days from September 16, 2014 = December 1, 2015
scouter
Confirmed in Texas now.
Just. Plain. Wrong. http://ebola.emedtv.com/ebola/ebola-incubation-period.html
Maybe the numbers do not line up but guess what? It is here on its own; not imported by "rescuing" folks -->(tm, obama speech writer) and supervising them into this country. We were assured ebola would never make mainland USA; yet here it is. What is next? Only half a wing of a hospital was wiped out, but "they" were expecting that? I am fearful, not because of this particular case, but because of the ignorance that this thing can be handily contained while our southern and northern border is wide open. You don't think our enemies are watching closely right now?
Using simple math on this can be a dangerous thing to do. Things like this take lots of twists and turns.
Simply the fact that it pops up here instead of Eastern Africa or Europe must have folks in Atlanta scratching their heads.
These projections are akin to the financial returns everyone was using in the 90’s. Funny thing happened on the way to the easy, early retirement.
Normalcy bias is a tough thing to overcome. Just because something is, and has been, it doesn’t mean it will be.
Not disputing your source. But EVERYTHING I’ve read up to this point said that it was not communicable until symptoms showed.
I will go back and do some more reading.
Sigh. Not going to waste my night off with correcting your ignorance. Will just say that this is a particularly nasty strain. Just one easy link: Contagious before symptoms http://ebola.emedtv.com/ebola/ebola-incubation-period.html Not going to waste my time tracking down the other links about the Zaire strain. But yes, it has been found in semen and breast milk weeks after recovery - in one documented case 61 weeks after “recovery.”
Not trying to go tit for tat, but the WHO site completely refutes what you posted.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/faq-ebola/en/
This has been consistently what I read.
Honest, not trying to get into a pissing contest. But we need to make sure people reading this stuff can see there is contradictory information.
Normally you’d be right, but this is a particularly nasty strain. Zaire IIRC, but too tired to verify. In short, it would be hard to design a nastier strain (which is why some speculate it is a weaponized strain, but I don’t concur - nobody is THAT nuts).
Fair enough.
Michael Berry was speaking about the fear factor last night on his radio program. Fits right in with the Ebola issue. He also mentioned other issues such as if Congress didn’t pass Obamacare, millions would die, the global warming, etc.
All of this would worry me except that the Mighty Obama just said that I’m a whole lot better off now than I was a few years ago. /s/
Sorry my response was harsher than I meant. Let’s just say this may be a particularly nasty strain and drop it.
Ok. Fine. Whatever.
Whatever.
I’m neither intelligent enough nor worthy enough of posting any opinions on this subject so perhaps I should just bow out now and let the speculation continue without my pointless input.
We must respect other traditions and cultures. Be sensitive to their traditions of kissing infected and contaminated dead people. Do they parade the body around town so everyone can show their respect?
The math for something as complicated as disease transmission can’t be boiled down to simple doublings in a set period of time...there are just so many variables involved.
I do think that if the Ebola virus mutates and becomes easily transmitted through coughing (like the common cold) it will indeed be a catastrophe of Homeric proportion.
Yes, you are correct. Good post.
p.s. Let’s all pray real hard that it never mutates in an ugly way.
Agreed...
Ebola is unbelievably dangerous but if we STOP flying infected people everywhere, it will burn out.
The airlines and travel industry will not stand for it. They could care less about anything but some profit. The government?...well.......
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