In the new study, the estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% for UCERF2 to about 7.0% for UCERF3.
Posted on 04/28/2015 10:09:40 AM PDT by BenLurkin
A new report from the U.S. Geological Survey has warned the risk of 'the big one' hitting California has increased dramatically.
Researchers analysed the latest data from the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
The estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% to about 7.0%, they say.
...
The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3, improves upon previous models by incorporating the latest data on the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
The study confirms many previous findings, sheds new light on how the future earthquakes will likely be distributed across the state and estimates how big those earthquakes might be.
Compared to the previous assessment issued in 2008, UCERF2, the estimated rate of earthquakes around magnitude 6.7, the size of the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake, has gone down by about 30 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
In the new study, the estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% for UCERF2 to about 7.0% for UCERF3.
.
California has had more 3.0 shakers in the last few days.
We’re all going to die!!!
you forgot to say “caused by global warming”...
yes, we are. It was certain the moment we were conceived.
 |
 |
 |
|
| Send FReepmail if you want on/off SVP list | |
| The List of Ping Lists | |
The fact that it is a complex of faults related in most cases to the San Andreas Fault. There were a number of articles a week ago on a “locked up” Ventura-Pitas Point fault that could unlock in an up to 8.0 earthquake. At least a lot of the building in the last several years have been built to a better code than that used even into the 60/70s.
When the 8.0 quake destroys San Francisco, I will just see it as God’s work.
Just joking.
OK, only half joking.
"...don't worry Gov. Moonbeam will take care of it"
What if he can find TEN RIGHTEOUS MEN there?
I mean, like got it right plus or minus decade?
No, it’s California’s fault.
Good point.
All those illegals must be standing on the outer edges of the state. Its going to break off...
Why doesn’t Barry Soetoro issue an executive order prohibiting earthquakes?
I will as well. The city is super ugly, anyways. No big loss.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.