Posted on 05/21/2016 8:06:52 PM PDT by Cruz_West_Paul2016
So Hillary Clinton wants to take away all our guns? Now how is that going to go over in Pennsylvania? If all looks well for "The Donald" in Pennsylvania, he will also likely take Ohio. God only knows how Hillary will campaign in Pennsylvania now that she has become anti-coal and anti- self defense !!!
Only if Ed Randell can bring an ugly woman to the acceptance speech
"You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not.
And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
I see a lot of ‘Trump 2016’ signs in the York-Lancaster-Harrisburg areas, but also a lot of ‘Bernie’ lawn signs where the 0bummer signs were in ‘08 & ‘12. I think Trump will carry PA, IF the Philly/Pitt/Hburg areas don’t vote at 125% of registered voters, again. If we could just give Philly to NJ, we’d solve a lot of problems.
They went for Obama twice, didn’t they? After he spoke of their ‘clinging’ to their guns and silly things like their Christian beliefs, IIRC. It’s the cities in every state that carry the state. PA has Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to deal with. THO, I don’t see much enthusiasm for Hillary! while it was enormous for The Won.
People in PA don’t know that Mrs. Bill is anti-gun.
I doubt Nj wants “Filthy-delphia” :) went to see the Liberty Bell there as a child, Is the Franklin Mint there too? I think I toured that. childhood is a blur.
All they know is the D means Democrat.
Citizens and their votes don’t count worth excrement in PA (and a number of other places like CA, MA, NY, and NJ. Why? Here’s a clue :
http://www.phillymag.com/news/2012/11/16/election-dead-people-vote-philadelphia/
Trump needs PA as a fallback if the Dubya ‘04 states fail to materialize (VA, NM, CO, IA).
randita CA. is lost also gone to the dark side however I think Trump WILL win here!!! WE have had it with immigration and I BELIEVE he WILL WIN people who have just NOT voted because of hopelessness WILL VOTE and Trump WILL carry this state, he WILL also WIN PA.!!! HELLARY does NOT HAVE the enthusiasm I believe MANY union workers WILL vote Trump regardless of bosses telling them to vote HELLARY!!!
“Is the Franklin Mint there too?”
Not in Philadelphia, but in Pennsylvania on US 1 just south-west of there. It was one of my customers 30 some years ago...
The problem isn’t PA’s “Little Alabama.” PA has Philly and Pitts and they overwhelm the rest of the state.
Unless Trump carries the suburbs, in all likelihood Hillary will win it.
The crucial importance of PA is underlined by the fact the Democrats are having their convention there this year.
A Republican will never carry CA.
SF and LA just have the motherlode of votes and they’re all liberal.
The inland valley and OC is reliably Republican but its not going to be enough.
Trump isn’t going to campaign there because its a lock for Hillary.
Trump is different.
And I can see that difference making a YUGE difference here in PA. He could be a Yinzer. He has a blue collar affinity. He is a new Reagan to the sons and daughters of the “Reagan Democrats.” He promises JOBS not handouts. That is what we want here.
I really feel he can take PA. The “T” (what Carville referred to as Alabama) and possibly a lot of Pittsburgh. Our families lived thru the end of the steel industry. We get it. Philadelphia not so much. That’s Rendell land anyways.
Voter ID rules determine which party wins which state.
No ID required(Pennsylvania) = Democrat Party win.
Comments here mention both PA and CA as states with large republican rural populations consistently outvoted by an urban metroplex. NY seems like another obvious example. Basic rural needs are probably unmet due to this. Why not spin these urban areas off into city states? Why not give them senators and self-rule while not letting them rule over the rest of the state?
There was talk a few months back of a few border NY counties seceding and joining PA. It was a pro-fracking thing.
Petition, some town meetings, some media coverage. That’s all that was expected.
The key to PA has been the masterful jobs that the Dems did redistricting it. Look at the 2008 and 2012 maps. PA was DEM but EVERY county except those near Philly and Pitt were red.
PA is a lost cause, sadly. And I live there. What we do is sorta compartmentalize into our counties and plan on border skirmishes. My county is over 90% republican. It’s also the most expensive county in PA.
But my town owns an electric billboard on the road that displays info about pot lucks and fire department boot drives. It’s been reading “Make America great again” for a week now. We are solid Trump country.
And it has nothing to do with coal. We want tech.
Actual PA person here.
Not sure how it will all work out. Here is the positives going in our direction, based on observations in the suburbs North and Northwest of Philly:
If Hillary is the candidate (most likely):
1) In 2008 and 2012 Obama was the anti-war candidate, now Trump is.
2) People here like their guns, and while prior to 2012 the real intentions of Obama were not obvious to Billy-Joe-Jim-Bob after Sandy Hook almost no gun owner is not aware that we are in the sights of the anti-gunners. Not so powerful in my area, but big effect on normally democratically leaning blue collar.
3) While liberals loved to signal how virtuous they were when Obama was running, but after 8 years it has sort of faded. It does not seem fresh or bold anymore, nor does that sense of liberal wonder transfer to Hillary. She is past her sell-by date.
4) Obama’s plan to move the slums to nice neighborhoods is equally offensive to liberals and conservatives. Liberals are all for integration as long as involves someone else bearing the cost, certainly not their kids getting beat up by diversity or their daughters dating it. They will not say it, but they will be very unlikely to vote for the party actively planning to put section 8 housing next to their 500,000 dollar heavily mortgaged house.
5) Many of the industries that have been shipped overseas came out of PA, especially in the suburbs and in the upstate region that did provide a lot of support for Obama in 2008/2012 (Scranton area). Now the republicans have put up a candidate who talks about defending blue color jobs like a pre 1996 democrat. Wow.....
6) PA still has coal fields. Hillary anti-coal.
7) Liberal folks love bisexual men who dress like female ponies in leather gear.......until they are headed into the public bathrooms with their girls. So the entire transgendered bathroom thing is forcing nice good meaning liberal folks to face the consequences of their open-mindedness, which in the prior two elections they could avoid. They may be liberal but they do not want their daughters choked by a mental patient dressed up like a gay pony (something similar happened in a restaurant recently).
8) The liberal diversity love-fest has shown signs of weakening and the nice well meaning liberal folks cannot help but notice that with increased diversity they or more likely, their children may some be on the scapegoat menu if economic conditions continue to weaken. We have a struggling economy here, you can see it in a number of areas.
9) Demographics: PA has gotten more white since 2010 (~83% now vs. 81.9% in 2010), more black (11.6 % vs. 10.8% in 2010) but less Latin. (groups that lost out to supply above gains). Seems to be related to weak employment which lead to less illegals. Favors Trump.
10) Hillarie’s young problem: young millennia’s seem to love Bernie, the “fellow traveler”. They do not love Hillary, for reasons too lengthy to relate. Expect low turnout of these folks, especially if the Dem convention is divisive.
11) Despite the supposed female love of Hillary, I have only seen 3 groups that likes here: Unmarried mid 40s bitter white women, single black women and lesbians. Older single women seem scared and like Trump (the protector). Young liberal chicks like Sanders (free stuff and he will pay off their 60,000 dollar school debt). In fact the local anecdotal evidence is that Hillary does not play well at all with most women folk on a visceral gut level, (she reminds them of an overbearing female boss), which is how they generally vote (except the 3 populations described).
12) Trump appeals to working black men and older black married couples, of which there are populations here. Not saying he will get close to a plurality, but he might draw 9 to 12 % of the total black vote, not the sub 5% the republicans got here in 2008/2012
Here are the negatives:
1) registrations: 49.5% Democratic, 37 % Republican, rest independents. Trump needs to pull a significant number of democratic blue collar voters (~15%) or he losses. He needs that even if the in dependents for him 5-3 and the republicans have a better turnout by 15 % (as indicated by primary)
Why?
2) Philly was caught stuffing ballots in the last presidential election and no one went to jail, as in some dem city districts put in 99% of registered vote totals, all for Obama
3) Lots of dead and moved folks on the rolls. stuffing opportunities.
4) Illegals allowed to motor voter register with no proof of citizenship. They will be voting....
Trump does stand a real chance of winning, but it is by no means a slam dunk.
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