Corona Virus Daily Thread #38

[Mariner]

Yesterday's thread here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3831710/posts?page=1

[Mariner]

I try to do something productive every day. Even if it's just looking for something productive, I count it.

[Mariner]

ping to new daily thread.

[arthurus]

I suspect I have had my meeting with WuHan a couple of weeks ago here in Florida. My county is showing fewer than 20 cases officially but in the middle of last month many people had flu symptoms, most minimal, and ascribed it to “allergies.” AND 20 people showing up as confirmed cases surely had the infection for 2-3 weeks previously.
I don’t have pollen allergies but sniffled for a few days and had a coughing spell like I have never experienced before, one short bout of rapid fire “dry” cough. I did not really know what was meant by dry cough before. Now I know. I also had a very bad and uncharacteristic headache for a day. Wife had another set of symptoms that should have presaged being very sick were it normal flu but did not get sick further. Daughter and her three boys the same, headaches and sniffles and some cough. SIL who is a pharmacy tech at the hospital had “tightness of chest for a week.” He has asthma so thought it was that but his inhaler did not help this time. I have heard neighbors say similar things. I work as a secutiry guard at a shipyard where men are sent home for 2 weeks if they show up with sniffles or cough. Surely all the germs do not go home with them. Many of the guys have “felt funny” for a couple of days. I have come to believe that millions more have been infected by WuHan Flu than credited with it but for maybe 90% it is a little thing that might not be even noticed. If that is the case I do hope it confers immunity, at least for the current version and, if that is the case then all the shutdown and hysteria is merely the nation beating itself into the ground for no good reason. Quarantining is not accomplishing anything because the infected ones have already spread it about prolifically.

[riri]

Thanks Mariner.

https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1246830942741815300?s=20

Boston ER doc saying they've started to see people who have previously been discharged back at hospital even sicker (starts at 0:43)

This guy looks tired and emotionally drained. Feel for these HC workers.

[janetjanet998]

yesterday USA stats

34,196 new cases
1331 new deaths

[Raebie]

Bkmk

[chris37]

I may have had it in early January. Initially I thought last November, but I did not remember the time correctly.

I’d like to be able to take the antibody test at some point, I’m very suspicious of this illness that I had. I felt it going into my chest, but then it didn’t. I was taking Sambucol 4 x a day the whole time.

[PROCON]

[janetjanet998]

Steve Lookner
@lookner
514 new cases in Louisiana (lower than previous days) but 68 new deaths (daily high)

71 new deaths in New Jersey (significantly lower than previous several days) 200 yesterday

Not sure how it being Sunday is affecting reporting across the country

[SaxxonWoods]

“Not sure how it being Sunday is affecting reporting across the country”

Reporting is a mess every day. It also lags by about a day and half. There’s one hell of a lot of noise in the reporting that makes it difficult to tell what is going on.

Which means “staying up to the minute” or even the day is impossible.

[janetjanet998]

Reporting is a mess every day.

---

teve Lookner
@lookner
Explanation for lower Louisiana new case number today is probably less testing. Only 1,827 new tests in past day, compared to 4,853 the previous day, according to state website.

[DEPcom]

ping

[IndispensableDestiny]

This is my latest plot. The equation is the Gompertz function. The good news is that growth in the US is no longer exponential. The bad news is that we have not yet hit peak daily cases or death.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[RummyChick]

So any city that is known to have come from the Biogen outbreak...watch carefully. Such as Indiana

Biogen Super Spreader probably had the Italian version of this.

[Steve_Seattle]

Since the media are ramping up the "Trump has blood on his hands, Trump is incompetent" theme, I'm trying to imagine how/if it would have been different under a Hillary presidency.

1. We would have had essentially the same bureaucracy in the CDC, giving essentially the same advice, and having the same degree of preparation, or lack thereof. As under Trump, that advice would change over time.

2. Because of #1, we would have had the same problems with delayed testing, shortages of masks, and shortages of ventilators.

3. Hillary would have been less likely than Trump to implement an early China travel ban.

4. Trump formed his CV task force on January 30th, when there were only a handful of person-to-person transmission cases in the US, only about 20 cases overall, and no deaths. It is unlikely Hillary would have acted sooner.

5. In late January and early February, the World Health Organization was still downplaying the seriousness of the disease, as was the CDC and Dr. Fauci in particular ("the average American has little to worry about"). It is unlikely that would have been different under Hillary.

6. Major public gatherings continued to be held nationwide until late February. There is no evidence Hillary would have prevented it.

7. Governors in some states began imposing various degrees of limitations on commercial and social activity in early to mid-March. It is unlikely that Hillary would have had any effect on that, one way or the other.

8. There is no evidence that Hillary would have worked to loosen governmental red-tape sooner than Trump, or to partner with private business sooner than Trump. Neither strategy is in her political DNA.

In short, there is no reason to believe that Hillary's response would have been quicker, and some reason to think it would have been slower. HOWEVER, unlike the way they are with Trump, the press would not be attacking Hillary on a daily basis, and would probably be praising her, so the PERCEPTION that things were being handled better would be a lot stronger than it is now.

[Steve_Seattle]

"Reporting is a mess every day. It also lags by about a day and half."

Some of the CDC graphs are WAY behind. The one that shows new cases on a daily basis is updated WEEKS after the dates. In early March, the were showing 60-80 new cases per day. On about March 18, the graph would show that the figures from about March 11 forward were still incomplete, but the dates before that were presumably final. A couple of weeks later, those early March dates showed hundreds of new cases.

[Mariner]

US records 1,497 virus deaths in 24 hours - the highest single-day toll of any country so far - with almost half in NYC, as cases rise to 310,000 and total deaths hit 8,500 leaving hospitals overwhelmed

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8188533/US-sets-grim-global-record-1-497-virus-dead-one-day-half-NYC.html

[buckalfa]

"My county is showing fewer than 20 cases officially but in the middle of last month many people had flu symptoms, most minimal, and ascribed it to “allergies.” AND 20 people showing up as confirmed cases surely had the infection for 2-3 weeks previously."

We will never know with certainty but there is anecdotal evidence the CCP Covid-19 was percolating in America as far back as December. Areas with somewhat heavy international business travel like Upstate South Carolina experienced a more than normal load of influenza like cases and deaths attributed to the flu. At least social distancing and warmer weather seems to have broken the "just the flu" cycle.

[maddog55]

I watched Sharknado 3 today... seems to make more sense than all of this COVID-19 reporting.