Posted on 03/27/2006 9:53:41 AM PST by Pukin Dog
Just a little dose of reality for some of you going nuts over the Immigration issue, because there is NO chance that you will win on the border enforcement issue. No chance whatsoever. Only after a migrant worker program passes, making most of these illegal aliens legal, is there any chance at all to have meaningful border enforcement.
Bush is not running for office anymore, but the Republican Congress is in need of a big victory in November. This issue will kill our chances to maintain the majority, and knowing that, Bush will likely veto any bill making illegal immigration a felony, if that bill does not include the migrant worker program (call it amnesty if you want) needed to hold onto Business and Hispanic support for the Republican Party.
The Illegal Immigration Genie is out of the bottle, folks. You can’t stuff her back in without losing the House and/or Senate in November. Pragmatic minds will rule in the end, and that is a bitter pill you best swallow now.
FReepers can’t will elections for the Republican Party, but we sure can go a long way towards losing them, if we can’t put our common sense ahead of our passions on this issue. I live in San Diego County, and I see the problems with illegal immigration on a daily basis.
Whether you like it or not, much of the commerce of this country does depend on these folks to do jobs that Americans won’t do for the prevailing wage.
So, you have a choice, you can demand the border enforcement bills on their own, or you can swallow hard and consider everything you will lose if we turn off 10-15% of the electorate, in addition to the business community that depends on these workers. Yeah, they broke the law, and so do the people who hire them.
So what?
Yeah, I said it, SO WHAT? The time to be worried about that was when there were REAL Republican majorities in the Border States. It is too late now. This is a problem that cannot be solved, but only managed.
It is possible to be right and stupid at the same time. Pete Wilson tried this a few years ago, got all kinds of support for it. It passed, and Pete Wilson is gone. Then a judge overturned it anyway. That is exactly what you can expect to happen with these current bills as well. Some judge will put an injunction on enforcement, but by the time that happens, we will be knee-deep into impeachment proceeding under a Democrat Congress.
Bush won’t let that happen, neither will smarter members of the Senate and House. You won’t win, you can’t win, but you can shoot yourself and the Republican party in the head (even if you are not a member) by pursuing a program that does not include amnesty or whatever you want to call it.
We lost this one.
Get over it. There are bigger battles ahead.
1. A coalition of combined NATO member forces will destroy Iran’s nuclear capability against the wishes of the U.N. Security counsel, who in private supports the action. Iran will respond by launching conventional missile attacks against Israel, convincing the U.S. Congress to sell the F-22 Raptor to the Israelis and Aussies. Iraq provides logistical assistance in the attack. Confidence = 8
Yet to be determined.
2. Congressman John Murtha is indicted on corruption charges after having failed to insulate himself from federal prosecution by becoming a darling of the anti-war Left. Murtha and other Democrats label the indictment as a payback against an outspoken critic of the war, but the Feds have an air-tight case. Confidence = 8
Yet to be determined, though not very likely to occur.
3. Justice Samuel Alito is confirmed with 62 yes-votes to the Supreme Court. Riots and Sit-ins are conducted throughout the Alito hearings, with Democrats in Congress meeting with the protesters on a nightly basis, each looking to bolster their image with the nut-bag Left. Confidence = 9+
Alito confirmed with 58 votes.
4. Congressman Tom Delay is cleared of all charges and resumes his place as Majority leader after a nasty public battle with Congressman Pence for the role. Speaker Denny Hastert; damaged after the Abramoff scandals considers retiring from public life. Democrats make Delay’s return the centerpiece of their 2006 election campaigns. Confidence = 7+
RE: DeLay - Yet to be determined
RE: Hastert - Not very likely to occur.
5. Congress retroactively rolls back the Alternative Minimum Tax, Passes the extended Patriot Act, and Passes a decent Illegal Immigration Bill with VP Dick Cheney providing the swing vote on two of the three issues. Confidence = 8+
Yet to be determined.
6. President Bush addresses the Iraqi Parliament IN PERSON in Iraq, and is seen as the individual to quell a rising desire among some for an Iraqi civil war. Bush’s approval rating reaches above 60% and remains so through the 2006 elections. Confidence = 8
Yet to be determined.
7. The Republican Senate falls one vote shy of a veto-proof majority after upset wins in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and the special election in Nevada to replace Senator Harry Reid, who resigned in disgrace over the Abramoff debacle. Confidence = 7
Yet to be determined.
Reid resignation, (a/c "Abramoff debacle"), not very likely to occur.
8. The Republican Congress passes authorization for drilling in ANWR, sparking violent protests and liberal threats of violence against oil workers in Alaska who work on the project. Multiple environmental impact lawsuits are launched in a last-ditch attempt to prevent drilling from taking place. Confidence = 8+
Yet to be determined.
9. The F-22 Raptor sees combat over the skies of Iran and Syria clearing the skies for coalition aircraft protecting the Iraqi borders. The U.S.S. Ronald Reagan becomes a fixture in the Persian Gulf after Al Qaeda declares war against the Saudi Royal Family. In exchange for NATO protection, the price of crude oil falls below $30 per gallon. The U.S. Economy explodes, protecting Conservative seats in Congress and providing a few upsets as well. Confidence = 7
USS Ronald Reagan currently in Persian Gulf; Al Qaeda attack on Saudi oil facility last month.
The rest: Yet to be determined.
10. President Bush announces his agenda for his final two years in Washington will be to finally replace the current U.S. Tax code with a simpler, more private process. Flat tax and VAT are discussed, with a modified Flat tax becoming the proposed plan presented to Congress. Confidence = 7
Yet to be determined.
11. Republicans are going to PICK UP SEATS in the November elections. We are not going to lose the House, nor are we going to lose the Senate. In fact, in the Senate, we might actually gain a 60 seat majority.
Yet to be determined.
PD...Since you cover immigration in Prognostication #5 could you provide your definition of "a decent Illegal Immigration Bill"?
I'm going to hold my fire. This time.
Why fault the child for the crime of the parent? Hmm, sounds so familiar ...
That is my point. The right thing to do is enforce these laws, because that is what the American people demand. I don't care whether the Pubs win in November if they abandon their principles.
I am trying to fax through NumbersUSA, but they must be getting hit hard with page hits, because suddenly the pages won't load.
That is my point. The right thing to do is enforce these laws, because that is what the American people demand. I don't care whether the Pubs win in November if they abandon their principles.
I don't want illegal hiring to go on ad infinitum. The long term solution is easing back on it. But the key is "long term" so we don't have a depression here caused by thousands of small businesses going belly up.
Americans need to be injected back into the labor market, however. It can only be done through easing regulation.
I noticed above that you did not embrace free markets, so I can understand why you don't see the that a long term solution is a decrease in socialism.
Okay...I agree that we're (almost) all mad enough and aren't going to take it anymore.
I agree that it needs to be done.
Now, I want everyone to think of the consequences of doing what I see we at FR want, that is, getting rid of illegals.
The moment we start trying to enforce the immigration laws, watch downtown LA disappear in a mass of Hispanic outrage. You thought the LA/Rodney King riots were bad? That'll seem like a Sunday afternoon picnic compared to what will happen. Remember: there were FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND people in the march on LA this weekend. Now imagine those same people, not peacefully marching, but looting and burning and rioting.
The LAPD AND the LA County Sheriff's Office don't have the manpower to quell the kind of riots I forsee. Kiss most of downtown LA "Adios".
You all saw this weekend what kind of numbers they can turn out on short notice. It's frightening. And, if anyone goes up against them, it WILL ignite a possible race war.
Is that what we want? Because once you start enforcing those laws that are ALREADY ON the books, that IS what WILL HAPPEN.
Think hard.
No it doesn't you're mischaracterizing. I'm sayin I will not be blackmailed by a bunch of unskilled labor. They don't provide anything other than convenience. Go spin elsewhere.
I'll take the loss. I don't want to be responsible for whats going to happen to my country if we don't push back against illegal immigration.
Are you waving a white flag while you type?
Utter hogwash that we have to get continue getting poked by our elected representatives that are derelict in their oaths.
Unreal.
I essentially agree with Pukin Dog on this. I do not know all the particulars of the various legislative vehicles, but I do know this from a political standpoint:
1. with midterm elections coming, I trust GWB and Karl Rove's political judgment much better on this issue than some of the ideologues on this thread and others.
2. border security (even stepped up enforcement of some sort) is a winning political issue for November. Employer restrictions and sanctions are necessary and overdue.
3. Conversely, deportation is a disaster for the GOP. Can anyone just imagine the television commercials that will demagogue this issue as the GOP "tears apart a family," "denies children education, food and health care," etc. etc.
4. It is not difficult for the RATS and their media handmaidens to connect the dots from the GOP is anti-immigrant, to the GOP is anti-Hispanic, to the GOP is anti-minority, to the GOP is against all blue collar people.
5. A deportation public policy enacted into law would spell political disaster for the GOP... it would be greatest political gift we could give the RATS for a generation.
Wiser political heads must prevail.
We accomplish nothing if we are out of power, particularly when it comes to the federal judiciary. The RATS are licking their chops to portray the GOP as anti-Hispanic.
Very well stated.
No, I have said many times now the solution is a decrease in regulation.
Some businesses cannot survive because they cannot pay minumum wage and other exorbitant labor costs. That's a fact.
Another White Flag FReeper.
When we want your opinion, we'll let YOU know.
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