Skip to comments.Analysis Indicates Bush Stole Ohio in 2004 (*bong-cookoo* alert!)
Posted on 01/18/2006 11:22:26 AM PST by pabianice
2004 Ohio Precinct-Level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount
The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is the first mathematical team to release a valid scientific analysis of the precinct-level 2004 Ohio presidential exit poll data. NEDA's analysis provides virtually irrefutable evidence of vote miscount.
(PRWEB) January 17, 2006 -- There is significant controversy about whether the 2004 presidential election was conducted fairly and its votes counted correctly. According to results of the major national election exit poll conducted for the National Election Pool by Edison/Mitofsky (E/M), Kerry won Ohio's pivotal vote, though the official tally gave the state, and thus the presidency, to Bush. The conduct of Ohio's election was formally debated by Congress in January 2005.
The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is the first mathematical team to release a valid scientific analysis of the precinct-level 2004 Ohio presidential exit poll data "The Gun is Smoking: Ohio 2004 Exit Poll Discrepancies Are Consistent with Outcome-Altering Vote Miscount" available at http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/OH/Ohio-Exit-Pol... . NEDA's analysis provides significant evidence of an outcome-altering vote miscount.
The analysis is based on the most accurate statistical method yet devised for determining whether exit poll error, random variations, or vote count manipulation cause the discrepancies between exit polls and official vote tallies. This analysis method was made public recently by NEDA in "Vote Miscounts or Exit Poll Error? New Mathematical Function for Analyzing Exit Poll Discrepancy" available at http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit-Poll-Ana...
Exit Polls were conducted in 49 of Ohios 11,360 precincts. At least 40% of Ohio's polled precincts show statistically significant differences between Kerrys exit poll percent and official vote count percent. 35% of these discrepancies underestimated the Kerry official vote share. This is five times the number expected... more...
So exit polls are more accurate than the actual vote count?
Well, there you go. Its scientific. Bush stole the election again.
How about an analysis of Wisconsin?
I'll bet they're having fun with this story over in DUmmie Land.In fact,I think I'll pay a visit to check it out.
There's lies, damn lies, then statistics.
(Forget who said that).
Where is the official seal of the Democratic Party? Cmon...I don't know how to post pix here.
Where is he hiding it? You think someone would have found it missing before now!
A press release from some moonbat Dem group - now that's what I call an authoritative source!
Reputed to be Mark Twain.
Exit polls of Wisconsin's cemeteries indicate Kerry was favored by a 2:1 ratio.
I think it was Mark Twain... But maybe it was Will Rogers....
Doesn't really matter, it's a great quote and oh so accurate.
So if we assume all exit pollsters are honest and all participants were randomly selected, then Bush winning was impossible. However, the probability that those assumptions are correct are zero. This so-called irrefutable case has just been destroyed. Q.E.D.
Exit poll data can only be used this way if exit polls are mandatory, which they are not.
Exit polls are self-selecting, and statistically useless for mathematical proofs like this.
However, I suspect in a couple days this is going to produce a smashing edition of the DUmmy FUnnies!
From their website:
7. Exit polls are unlikely to be inaccurate. We need by county EXIT POLLS by the 2006 Election. By county exit poll comparisons may be available for 2004 by aggregating multiple polls and adding county codes to existing polls to find large enough sample sizes in some counties (No one has mentioned that this is possible for 2004 to me yet though.)
If I read this right - this means that 70% overestimated Kerry's vote share.
Or does it mean that Americans don't like the sanctity of a private vote violated so they lie to pollsters who annoy them?
Or does it mean that conservatives have jobs and don't like to waste time talking to pollsters?
So many question
this is LW mathematical masturbation
play with the numbers until you get the desired result
This proves Democrats are too stupid to vote. They can't even work the machine. There it is proof!
The Mitofsky people have admitted that their polls were flawed. Working with bad data, this study reaches a bad conclusion.
The Kerry people deliberately stacked the exit polls, it appears, but whatever the reason, the polls were not at all accurate.
Exactly what I'm scratching my head about.
49/11360 = 0.4%
Yep, self-selected surveys of less than half of one percent of the voters are a better indicator than counting the votes of everyone.
Bush Won - Get Over It!
I have that graphic but not on a URL, only on my PC so can't post it here. *sigh*
Thanks, that one is even better!!......:)
So why even have elections, just do exit polling.....
This would be doubled-over, tears-streaming-down-the-face, sides-hurting, can't-catch-my-breath-from-laughing-so-hard FUNNY, if it wasn't for the fact that there are people out there that actually BELIEVE this!!!!!!
Let's just scrap voting. It apparently doesn't mean squat. Let's just tell the pollster with blue hair that we are voting Republican, I'm sure he will be honest and put down our choice. /sarc
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.