Blogs for John McCain-Excellent November electoral analysis!

Might want to pin this post high and save it in your bookmarks. As most junkies know, the # McCain must reach is 270 out of 538 available votes. However, for those new to politics, many don't know this. As such, I thought I would give a "guide" as to how to get there. In the coming days you'll see a lot of "map analysis", the best of which is probably provided by John King of CNN. You'll see some optimistic McCain maps and some optimistic Obama maps. It should be noted that despite that, much has remained the same since 2004. That being said, the phenoms that are Obama and Palin make this election potentially map-changing for either camp. Given the amount each campaign has in cash however, it is unlikely there will be an electoral blowout.

Here are some basic observations I have:

- I categorize electoral vote margins in the following ways: Blowout (350 or more EV), Easy win (300 or more), Narrow win (270 or more).

- Start with the Bush-Kerry # in 2004: 286-252.

- If there is to be a blowout in the electoral college, it is most likely that would come from McCain, not Obama, because Obama has a lower "floor" than McCain does. This is largely due to the "solid south/plain states" that McCain has, while Obama's base is largely packed in to the northeast and California. Given the dynamics in this election and the passionate supporters on both sides, I see it as highly unlikely either "floor" could be penetrated. That said, I do see it as a reasonable possibility that it won't be as close as 2004 or certainly as 2000 was, depending if either campaign catches fire.

- If any team is to catch fire, I believe it is more likely to be McCain than Obama. Reason being, Obama has been campaigning for two years and has had all the following on his side: unpopular war, bad economy, unpopular president, devoted supporters, gifted speech making, friendly media, tons of money. Despite this, Obama has hit 50% once, the day after his convention. He has never built a large lead against McCain. I believe, as such, that Obama has a relatively low ceiling despite the media's adoration of him. This is for a few reasons: too liberal, too self absorbed, experience issue, and Hillary's supporters. McCain, on the other hand, has a higher ceiling. One, he is not seen as too conservative. Two, Palin energizes the base and appeals to women. Three, both McCain and Palin appeal to independents. Fourth, McCain is not a polarizing figure like Obama is.

Analyzing the map further:

- The Democrats MUST MUST MUST have California. They are likely to get it but their entire electoral strategy is predicated on winning California. That's great to have in their camp but risky in that they lose in every non-CA scenario. You cannot take 55 out of the D column and add it to the R's and make it up. Period.

- The Republicans MUST MUST MUST have Florida and Texas. Florida is always dicey but it has to be in your column. Ohio is VERY close to a "MUST MUST" but you can draw the map in a way without Ohio. But, Ohio is close to being a must. Likely, thee who wins Ohio wins everything.

- Here are the 04 red states in trouble for McCain in order from most in trouble to least: 1) Iowa 2) New Mexico 3) Ohio 4) Colorado 5) Virginia 6) North Carolina 7) Florida. No other state will fall, period, though some may be closer than they were in 04. Others though (KY, TN, WV, AR) will be bigger. Note Missouri is not on this list..though it would be 8 or 9.

- Here are the 04 blue states in trouble for Obama in order frommost in trouble to least: 1) NH 2) Michigan 3) Wisconsin 4) Pennsylvania 5) New Jersey 6) Minnesota 7) Oregon

- Last state to fall in an epic blowout: McCain win: Connecticut Obama win: Georgia

Here is the count:

SAFE MCCAIN (will NEVER leave McCain) (145): Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Utah (5), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Texas (34), Louisiana (9), Arkansas (6), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), South Carolina (8), West Virginia (5)

STRONG LEAN MCCAIN (very unlikely to leave McCain except in blowout) (65): Montana (3), Georgia (15), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15)

TOTAL SAFE/STRONG MCCAIN: 200

SAFE OBAMA (81): Hawaii (4), Illinois (11), Delaware (3), DC (3), Vermont (3), Rhode Island (4), Massaschusetts (12), New York

STRONG LEAN OBAMA: (76) California (55), Connecticut (7), Maryland (10), Maine (4) - though one CD is often tight)

TOTAL SAFE/STRONG OBAMA: 157

So, McCain's "death floor" is 145 while Obama's is 81. I don't see any scenarios where it's any more than that. You can see where McCain has an initial advantage.

SLIGHT LEAN MCAIN (54): Florida (27), Nevada (5), Virginia (13), Colorado (8) These are states that Obama could reasonably win, but are more than likely, in a reasonably close election, to stay with McCain. This brings McCain to 254, just 16 away from victory.

SLIGHT LEAN OBAMA: (33) Washington (11), Oregon (7), New Jersey (15), Minnesota (10) These are states taht McCain could reasonbly win, but are more than likely, in a reasonbly close election, to stay with Obama. This brings his total to 200, still 70 away from victory

TRULY UP FOR GRABS: Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Michigan (17), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4). Now, for one reason or the other some of these may shift back and forth. For example, I think Iowa, a red state in 04, is likely to go to Obama in 08, while NH, a blue state in 04, is likely to go to McCain. Let's add those to the totals. That gives McCain 258 and Obama 207.

That brings us down to five states: Ohio, PA, Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. As you can see, Obama has a problem. If McCain wins Wisconsin only, he forces a tie. Only New Mexico only wouldn't be enough. So, in order for Obama to win, he has to win EVERYTHING ABOVE AND sweep Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan while McCain only needs ONE to win or tie. And if New Mexico goes to McCain, he only needs one of the four to win.

Now, some people have said Obama could open the map by winning a place like Indiana, Colorado, or Virginia. Perhaps. But, I see it as unlikely that he wins Virginia but loses Ohio. Maybe that could be done in the case of Colorado, and that would even it up. If obama won colorado, that would back off his total to 249 or 245, and he'd need two other states. So, Colorado is a big prise.

So, what is the key for McCain:

MAKE SURE YOU WIN VIRGINIA, COLORADO, MISSOURI, FLORIDA, AND NEVADA. NO LOSSES THERE, PERIOD.

Win Ohio or Michigan. Even if you lost New Hampshire, you win either of those, you win, as you'd be at either 271 or 274.

A sampling of recent polls, pre convention? Colorado: McCain 47, Obama 46 (CNN) Ohio: Obama 47, McCain 45 (over labor day weekend, so post-Dems and only +2) Virginia: McCain 48, Obama 47 (Rasmussen) Nevada: McCain 46, Obama 39 (Mason Dixon) New Hampshire: Obama 47, McCain 46 (rasmussen) Michigan: Obama 43, McCain 41 (Det. News) Florida: McCain 47, Obama 43 (SV) -- Mason Dixon had Obama up 1, by the way, only poll to show Obama up there though. Pennsylvania: Obama 48, Mccain 43 -- CNN New Mexico: Obama 48, McCain 44 -- rasmussen

My prediction, in the end?

McCain 295 -- from 04 loses IA and NM Obama 243 -- from 04 loses NH and MI

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