Posted on 10/24/2008 9:27:07 PM PDT by Beyond Puke
Historical behavioral data ignored in polling is criminal. This from a Criminal.
Chumps we are in america to have the CEO himself, proclaim, admit, ....how about “taking the winds out of the sail.” by framing exactly what he is doing,....This is a smoke screen. Clearing his path for what might have turned out different should he not make this very proclamation of his “model.” I will explain, so that,...believe me...all of can understand.
Ignoring psychographics and replacing the primary element for quantification with demographics is pure 100% MANipulation.
The only way to most accurately measure the liklyhood of how people will think at a particular place and a particular time is with historical data. How did pollee A vote in the last election, is he a democrat, republican, or independent..
Zogy states 40% are college educated, 11% hispanic, 10% african american, ....Historical perspective was used only in their turnout....etc. He admits there is an “element of artwork.”
In the past when those who commanded our trust, We Trusted because they were trustworthy.
Times have changed... I don't trust you! Zogby, ....you have done enough to convince yourself as well. Creative indeed. Sort of telling isn't it.....NO-one IS telling, believe it.
.so what do we do to at least make sure that no matter how someone is slanted, that the only fair way to establish a “selection basis” as a foundation to suppostion is to rely on behavior factor illustrated by past history.
1200 People, ...use your demographic sampling, but within that find one of each democrat and one republican. The amount of registered independents should reflect a similar percentage in this polling group to be fair.
This Zogby poll is a tool, tactically used, strategically placed and Beyond Puke.
Not born from privlege, but PRIVILEGED to live in America. We lost it...The last great generation, "graced" us with One DeGeneration after another, and soon on to a third. No turning back.
It’s the culture stupid!. Thank you! Tony Venuti experiential, social philosopher Ex-Con, Newspaper Publisher, Talk show host
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Many of these so-called “polls” are being used this year to manipulate voter opinion. It’s always been that way but it’s twice as bad this year.
This borders on nonsensical, but I think I agree with you. If you’re trying to say that Zogby is full of crap and his polls are pulled out of his arse, I’m 100% on your side.
Zogby is same religion as Barrack Hussain Obama.
Artwork indeed . Zogbot has made a fool of himself. No one bought his jive , so no he backtracks .
Rush used to be so high on this guy. Not anymore.
It is up to us to educate our neighbors, friends, and relatives. We can make a big diffierence. Expose Obama to those around you and BRING THEM TO THE POLLS!
Think of a good name. Get one or two decent contacts. 2 years from now you ARE the pollster. It’s just like girls gone wild without the girls. The name is the key.
Isn’t Zogby’s brother a mouthpiece for some pro-Arab group here in America? Haven’t seen him lately.
:P
Well, from what I gather, you’re basically saying that the polling is wrong because Zogby (and for that matter, the rest of the public pollsters) are not consistent with their sampling and they typically don’t even know what their sample group is in the first place. That is, if on one day they have 400 Dems, 400 Reps and 200 Indies, the next poll they do should have the same breakdown if the poll is to mean anything at all. If this is what you’re getting at, I agree 100%.
In theory, a proper poll should go further and stick with the very same group of people, but for several reasons, that has other problems—such as the unavoidability of the polling process itself affecting the outcome (among other things)—which is why idiotic things like Luntz’s focus group are fatally flawed.
I think you are correct (if I understand your unique way of saying things), that if polls are to have any meaning they have to track underlying trends and they can only do this by having a consistent demographic sample from one poll to the next and the baseline has to be built upon a known historical datum, such as how the pollee voted previously (which needs to be confirmed as well, but how that would be done is not clear). Otherwise, they mean nothing at all, which, frankly, I am inclined to think. That is, I think polls are, by their nature, inherently bogus. Instinct about one’s environment is a better tool than polling if you want to know what groups of people are thinking.
“Historical behavioral data ignored in polling is criminal. This from a Criminal”
Historical data??? They have current ACTIVE ONGOING data from the early voting that they are ignoring. The early voting is about evenly split after 5 days in most states.
They need to rebalance these polls based on ongoing data!
Just when we were over Zog’s 330 vote Kerry guarantee. He is only there to cripple McCain’s fundraising.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
Zogby is a fraud.
As late as last Wednesday, he was the guest speaker for a Planned Parenthood event. He’s in the tank too, and his polling data clearly reflects it.
http://www.freerepublic.com/%5Ehttp://wnyt.com/article/stories/S629204.shtml?cat=300
Is it really split even?
It’s the same guy; he and his brother John Zogby founded the firm. James Zogby is the senior analyst for Zogby and he also founded the Arab-American Institute, and he is on the Executive Committee of the DNC. According to Wikipedia (hardly a rightwing source), he’s also a frequent Puffington Host blogger.
That’s really not so unusual since the vast majority of pollsters are political (why else get into the business?). The better pollsters understand that if they’re going to help their guy, they have to do accurate polls. So in this instance, the “internal polling” is what Zogby will show only to the party, while the BS stuff is for public and MSM consumption. You can never, ever, trust public polls. Even internal polling is biased, depending on what the Boss wants to hear.
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