Why no Mexican Genes in Mexican Swine Flu?

Greg's Blog ^ | April 28, 2007 | Greg C.

[null and void]

Here: Mexican index case?

[pnut22]

If I were a conspiracy believer I would say that with Obama wanting to pass nationalized health care, Mexico would be the pefect choice. This is a relatively mild form of the flu, according to Fox news. Mexico would probably have more deaths because of more poor people and less health care. NEWSMAKER. Then it would of course cross into the US. The in the tank MSM would then cover it 24/7, even though there have been 0 deaths, and really very few cases in the US. If any one does die, they will most likely be poor people that can be used as examples of people Obama would have saved, if we only had Nationalized Health Care. Crises created... don’t let it go to waste.

[toomuchcoffee]

After reading the article, it’s hard not to come to that conclusion.

[WoofDog123]

I read the article, but lack background to make judgment on how odd the combination of genetic attributes is. Is this something which could occur naturally, or is it by definition presumed impossible/highly improbable and thus likely man-made?

[toomuchcoffee]

Dang! it’ll take thousands or millions of deaths to get your attention? You’re tough!

[Hodar]

Dang! it’ll take thousands or millions of deaths to get your attention? You’re tough!

No, I'm reasonably good at math.

Consider, population of Mexico is ~109 Million Link

And today, about 1,000 people are in the hospital, so using my trusty slide-rule we do some division and come out with 0.0009% of the population requiring hospitalization. If 1 million people died in Mexico, with their poor medical care; that would still be less than 1%. So what? Big deal. That means that with 1 million deaths, I have better than a 99% chance of survival with no medical care.

When we get to 10+% fatalities - then I'll be concerned. This is nothing more than media hype.

[livius]

I don’t think it originated in Minnesota, but I wonder why that area (not close to Mexico!) showed up in it. I’m still amazed that they can determine the “travels” of the virus down to that level.

[Jewbacca]

Obama’s excuse to declare martial law.

[WoofDog123]

“When we get to 10+% fatalities - then I’ll be concerned. This is nothing more than media hype. “

In a way, that was my point. This is a HUGE media event, and it is beginning to impact a few civil functions in the US. There is tremendous public interest in this, far beyond likely % odds of any person getting this virus, based on what is known now.

[Marie]

There is one more possibility in favor of releasing it in Mexico rather than in the US directly. If they released it in the US, it may have been identified faster and contained. By releasing it in Mexico, the virus has a chance to spread well before governments react to it. By the time it’s realized that this is a threat, it’s too late.

At least, that’s actually what happened.

[Centurion2000]

The entire goal, is to cripple your target, consume his resources, demoralize and weaken your target. Mexico is a lousy target.

Going with a bioweapon theory and playing devil's advocate.

1) Bad health infrastructure. (unlike say ... Canada)
2) Cripple Mexico outright and where to they run to? USA
3) That either cripples the USA with health cases (PC wins) or starts a ground war along the southern USA as the US militarizes the border and shoots plague carriers (non-PC wins)
4) March - April ... tourist season and infected people catch it and return to countries of origin.
5) How many arabs and/or asians are actually going to vacation IN Mexico of all places??
6) Mexico is not exactly known for its wonderful intelligence and investigation capabilities. And it's territorial to a fault if the USA wants to backtrack a possible bioweapon. 7) Easier to infiltrate than USA (this is debateable)

Mexico would make the PERFECT springboard to infect the USA with a bioweapon.

[Centurion2000]

Ping for your intel on this thread .... Why no Mexican genes?

[Polarik]

Read this post of mine.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2239787/posts

Pigs are required to combine the Avian, Swine, and human influenza into a hybrid that can pass itself from human to human.

I have no doubt that this was created in a lab, and dumped in the worst pig stye in Mexico.

Launching in Mexico makes a lot of sense from a terrorist’s point of view because (a) Mexico City is one of most densely populated placs on Earth - so right there you have the potential to infect a lot of people in a short amount of time.

If this thing spreads up through Northern Mexico, the infected illegals will br running over our border looking for medical care. Bingo! US national emergency requiring troops at the border.

[Polarik]

FROM PROMED

Raul Rabadan, PhD
Assistant Professor
Department of Biomedical Informatics
Center for Computational Biology and Bioinformatics
Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons
1130 St. Nicholas Ave

My group and I are analyzing the recent sequences from the isolates in
Texas and California of swine H1N1 deposited in National Center for
Biotechnology Information (NCBI)

The preliminary analysis using all the sequences in public databases
(NCBI) suggests that all segments are of swine origin. NA and MP seem
related to Asian/European swine and the rest to North American swine
(H1N2 and H3N2 swine viruses isolated since 1998). There is also
interesting substratification between these groups, suggesting a
multiple reassortment.

We are puzzled about sources of information that affirm that the
virus is a reassortment of avian, human and swine viruses. It is true
that the H3N2 swine virus from 1998 and 1999 is a triple reassortant,
but all the related isolates are found since then in swine.

[Centurion2000]

I have no doubt that this was created in a lab, and dumped in the worst pig stye in Mexico.

Got it .... now how do you prove that it was made in a lab?

Hate playing devil's advocate, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. Serious question btw.

[Polarik]

Here is an exerpt from the comment made by AdmSmith:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2239276/posts?page=26#25

The present virus has the following 8 components in its RNA, with origin:

PB2 Avian North America PB1 Human circa 1993 PA Swine Eurasia +/- HA Swine North America NP Swine Eurasia +/- NA Swine Eurasia MP Swine Eurasia NS Swine Eurasia +/-

Mixtures of these RNA components do not occur by accident.

Who might have done this? Baxter International Inc Hat tip to Scythian for this info:

Baxter, a biochemical & pharmaceutical corporation located near Chicago, was found to have shipped live avian flu viruses mixed with vaccine material to medical distributors in 18 countries. The "mistake" was discovered by the National Microbiology Laboratory in Canada. The World Health Organization was alerted and panic spread throughout the vaccine community as health experts asked the obvious question: How could this have happened?

Guess which company has already started working on a vaccine for swine flu? If you guessed, Baxter, then you guessed right. But, they're not the only ones suddenly working on a vaccine. Xenova Biomanufacturing is another possible suspect here.

Here's the Swine Flu case map

[Ahithophel]

“One explanation for no Mexican origin in a flu ostens“One explanation for no Mexican origin in a flu ostensibly originating in Mexico: It’s a man-made strain purposely released among the populace.”

Hmmm. Well, it is an explanation. However, with airplanes that can put an infected person into a country on the other side of the world within 14 hours, it is not a terribly likely scenario.

Occam's Razor, google it.

Thanks for making my point. Occam's Razor, as you know, holds that researchers should avoid "stacking" information to prove a theory if a simpler explanation fits the observations. If I follow your theory, (1) the flu originated on the other side of the world; (2) from conditions unrelated to anything in Mexico; (3) and infected someone in this unspecified original location; (4) who decided to fly (5) without first infecting anyone else at the point of origin (6) to Mexico (7) where s/he infected others.

An alternative scenario is that (1) the flu strain was man made and (2) purposely released among the populace in Mexico.

Best, A

[Habibi]

“An alternative scenario is that (1) the flu strain was man made...”

Umm.... No, choice A does not follow, any more than Martians produced the virus. There is no proof for it, nor is there factual support for such a statement.

On the other hand, it’s a crackerjack theory for sure. . Though I think the this particular flu virus may be kinda’ lame, as pandemic virii go. I’ll bet/hope it’s not up to the 1918 variety. If you haven’t read it yet, there’s a couple of books (probably available at your library), “Flu : the story of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 and the search for the virus that caused it” and “America’s forgotten pandemic : the influenza of 1918”. They’re both good reads. I guess we’ll see how nasty this one is fairly soon.

[Ahithophel]

. . . . Martians produced the virus.

Now that's a crackerjack theory, not yours I understand, but a real crackerjack theory nonetheless. Nothing can be ruled out in these most interesting times ;)