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Hypothesis: Fake American Civil War 2 Geopolitical Outcome (The Igor Panarin theory)
Gibberish Is My Native Language ^ | January 13, 2009

Posted on 10/21/2009 9:36:09 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The Wall Street Journal recently published an article discussing a theoretical collapse of the United States in 2010. Igor Panarin presented his theory in 1998, and cites mass immigration, economic collapse, and moral decline as key triggers to a second American civil war that will fragment the US into four pieces, with Alaska going back to Russia and Hawaii ending up in Japanese or Chinese hands.

Here’s what Panarin’s theoretical United States region would look like, post second American civil war:

(MAP AT LINK)

Now, there are a few things I agreed with right off the bat, like California being the dominant part of the “California Republic,” and Texas forming the core of the “Texas Republic.” However, anyone who has ever been to both New York state and South Carolina will know that these two areas would never ally with each other in the event of a split. It’s hard enough getting the people of Northern Virginia and the rest of the Commonwealth to agree on things; trueblood Southerns and Yankees will kill each other instantly.

So, it got me thinking. What would the US-region look like after a second civil war? Here’s my map:

(MAP AT LINK)

I wrote a big ol’ breakdown of the different nation-states and why the aligned this way versus that way, etc. I was going to post it up along with my map, but when I explained it to my co-workers they all looked a little something like this:

(SMILEY)

...so I will probably hold onto it for another time. ;)

Anyway, what do you think? If the US were to collapse, how would you align the states?


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Politics; Society; Weird Stuff
KEYWORDS: civilwar2; cw2; igorpanarin; obama; revolution
It's a lot closer than it was in January.
1 posted on 10/21/2009 9:36:10 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

My guess is that Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky are not going to fit all that well into Atlantic America which will soon be joining the EU.

2 posted on 10/21/2009 9:42:59 PM PDT by trumandogz (The Democrats are driving us to Socialism at 100 MPH -The GOP is driving us to Socialism at 97.5 MPH)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

My guess is that Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky are not going to fit all that well into Atlantic America which will soon be joining the EU.

3 posted on 10/21/2009 9:44:23 PM PDT by trumandogz (The Democrats are driving us to Socialism at 100 MPH -The GOP is driving us to Socialism at 97.5 MPH)
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To: trumandogz

I agree. The Texas Republic plus your Kentucky, Tennessee and South Carolina would likely be the southern grouping.

I don’t think the southern grouping would be “part of Mexico or under Mexican influence” though. It just aint gonna happen.


4 posted on 10/21/2009 9:46:50 PM PDT by TheZMan (Just secede and get it over with. No love lost on either side. Cya.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Article by Russian is total rubbish.

We are going to “Take It All Back” from the Leftist Slime.

Alaska will never speak Russian and there are many more states that gravitate toward Texas than listed.

If you look at the voting records from Congressmen, if you remove New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, California, and Michigan; they are where the problem is. Rest of the nation gets along pretty well.


5 posted on 10/21/2009 9:46:56 PM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Garbage. This assumes China/Japan and Mex and Russia are stronger than a divided USA. NO. It also assumes the American citizens will roll over to the Russians, Mexicans, etc. NO. How many guns are out there in the USA? How will the people of Alaska react to being ruled by Russia? These countries do not have armies big enough to pacify any part of the USA.


6 posted on 10/21/2009 9:48:28 PM PDT by uscabjd
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Agreed it getting closer everyday. My worry is that Obama is the type that can't sand losing and he is. When the writing on the wall gets so clear even he can read it, he will think the SCREW YOU ALL! and burn the house down around him rather than admit defeat and then scamper off to Europe way he and his Nobel would easily recieve asylum.
But I think I will get the Mrs to help me this weekend and together we will do some sewing!

7 posted on 10/21/2009 9:49:58 PM PDT by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

John Titor ping?


8 posted on 10/21/2009 9:50:14 PM PDT by stefanbatory (Weed out the RINOs! Sign the pledge. conservativepledge.org)
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To: uscabjd

My thoughts exactly.


9 posted on 10/21/2009 9:53:24 PM PDT by djsherin (Government is essentially the negation of liberty.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Another ludicrous view of how the US will be divided.

10 posted on 10/21/2009 9:53:24 PM PDT by trumandogz (The Democrats are driving us to Socialism at 100 MPH -The GOP is driving us to Socialism at 97.5 MPH)
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To: stefanbatory

Looks that way...


11 posted on 10/21/2009 9:53:37 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2 million for Sarah Palin if she runs; What will you do?)
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To: trumandogz

This map looks more like the NCAA DIv. 1 Conference map.

New Texas= The Big 12
New America South= The SEC
New America North =ACC
Republic of the Midwest=Big Ten
California= The PAC Ten
Open Sky= The Mountain West


12 posted on 10/21/2009 9:57:21 PM PDT by trumandogz (The Democrats are driving us to Socialism at 100 MPH -The GOP is driving us to Socialism at 97.5 MPH)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What makes them think it would be aligned by state?


13 posted on 10/21/2009 10:01:58 PM PDT by GeronL (http://tyrannysentinel.blogspot.com)
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To: uscabjd

Alaska is tiny. Barely over half a million in population and extremely spread out. It would be Russian in a month in the event of a civil war.


14 posted on 10/21/2009 10:08:24 PM PDT by Melas
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
This is what the USA will look like.


15 posted on 10/21/2009 10:09:58 PM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I suspect if there’s a balkanization of the US, some of those state lines will definitely change as well...


16 posted on 10/21/2009 10:10:07 PM PDT by Knitting A Conundrum (Without the Constitution, there is no America!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

My real problem with ideas like this is the idea that states are single minded. I strongly doubt that Texas would stand together in the event of a civil war, let alone form a Republic with other states or parts of states.


17 posted on 10/21/2009 10:10:24 PM PDT by Melas
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To: trumandogz

I’ll say.

Western MD would have a collective stroke if it were shackled to the rest of the state.

[We’re all descended from and still within spitting distance of WV any way. Send us back home]


18 posted on 10/21/2009 10:10:30 PM PDT by Salamander ("Welcome to my nightmare.....I think you're gonna like it")
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To: trumandogz

well at least we will be in with Texas here in Kansas. I can live with that.


19 posted on 10/21/2009 10:11:36 PM PDT by guitarplayer1953 (Romak 7.62X54MM, AK47 7.62X39MM, LARGO 9X23MM, HAPINESS IS A WARM GUN BANG BANG YEA YEA)
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To: Salamander

I did some work in Accident way back when and as far as I could tell I was in WV.


20 posted on 10/21/2009 10:14:01 PM PDT by trumandogz (The Democrats are driving us to Socialism at 100 MPH -The GOP is driving us to Socialism at 97.5 MPH)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

When the U.S. collapses, Texas will be one of the nuclei of the new nations of North America.

As for Texas “becoming part of” Mexico: it’s more likely to end up the other way around.


21 posted on 10/21/2009 10:14:17 PM PDT by B-Chan (Catholic. Monarchist. Texan. Any questions?)
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To: trumandogz

No way on God’s Green earth that Utah and Idaho would ally itself to California...And I have my suspicions about northern Nevada and eastern Washington and maybe even Oregon.

Person who made this map is really unfamiliar with regional feeling and cultural attitude.


22 posted on 10/21/2009 10:16:19 PM PDT by Knitting A Conundrum (Without the Constitution, there is no America!)
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To: trumandogz

I agree that Tenn., Kentucky and S.C. would be a much better fit with the Republic of Texas but N.M. appears hopeless. It just may be a better fit with Cal. and the far West.


23 posted on 10/21/2009 10:17:32 PM PDT by BnBlFlag (Deo Vindice/Semper Fidelis "Ya gotta saddle up your boys; Ya gotta draw a hard line")
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Hey! Are you trying to pull some kind of fast one?!


24 posted on 10/21/2009 10:19:45 PM PDT by rockrr (Everything is different now...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Ruski that wrote this is having a political wet-dream.

If there is a balkanization of America, and that is not something I would rule out completely the way things are going, it is ludicrous to think that Alaska would voluntarily join with Russia, or that Russia would attempt to conquer Alaska militarily.

Nor is it likely that California would voluntarily join with China — or that China would want them to. China wants hegemony over everything west of Hawaii, including Mongolia, Siberia, Southeast Asia, Australia and the Indian Ocean, but all of that is very long term.


25 posted on 10/21/2009 10:22:53 PM PDT by Ronin (Nemo me impune lacesset)
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To: Melas
"Alaska is tiny. Barely over half a million in population and extremely spread out. It would be Russian in a month in the event of a civil war."

tell that to the swiss.

26 posted on 10/21/2009 10:25:02 PM PDT by robomatik
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To: Melas

There you lower 48ers go again; making rediculous predictions about things you know not a thing about. I hope you don’t call yourself a conservative?


27 posted on 10/21/2009 10:31:15 PM PDT by Eska
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Have no fear, peons. In the event of a civil war, I will simply make a speech, and the states will reunite. All 57 of them.

28 posted on 10/21/2009 10:39:49 PM PDT by death2tyrants
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To: GeronL
"What makes them think it would be aligned by state?"

Exactly, take Indiana, the Gary area of Northern Indiana would stay with Illinois, but the Southern half would most likely aline with Kentucky. A more likely divide would I think look something more like the red states/blue state 2004 Presidental map, with some states spliting up. I would say a spilt would look more like this:

With Alaska and Hawaii both going independent. Indiana breaking in half with southern Indiana going 'red', northern New York forming up with Maine, New Hampshire and Vermount. A west coast and east coast 'Peoples Republics'. Eastern Oregon and Eastern Washington might eventually break away and go 'red' as well.
29 posted on 10/21/2009 10:42:47 PM PDT by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
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To: Ronin
or that Russia would attempt to conquer Alaska militarily

This would be easy for Russia. All they have to do is claim they're waging a war to liberate the polar bears, and Obama would send troops to help them.

30 posted on 10/21/2009 10:48:08 PM PDT by death2tyrants
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To: robomatik

Switzerland has less land (hence more defensible) , no access by sea, limited access by land and a population some 20 times that of Alaska. A poor comparison if there ever was one.


31 posted on 10/21/2009 10:48:44 PM PDT by Melas
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To: Eska

If I’m wrong correct me. By all means, if my facts are in err, I’ll admit it. However, what I said stands: You have a little over half a million in population, and it’s incredibly sparse, with a population density barely over one person per square mile.


32 posted on 10/21/2009 10:51:57 PM PDT by Melas
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To: Melas
"Switzerland has less land (hence more defensible) , no access by sea, limited access by land and a population some 20 times that of Alaska. A poor comparison if there ever was one.

i for one, would say that history has proven you to be incorrect. but, that is just my opinion.

{{{looking at the numerous times the swiss have been invaded/enslaved within the past c.500 years might serve as a comparison to begin with.}}}

33 posted on 10/21/2009 11:01:13 PM PDT by robomatik
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To: Melas
It's not about the 800,000 people here, or the fact that everybody is armed to the teeth and well supplied out of necessity.

It's about America. It would never fall apart like you're claiming. People in USA are not different naationalities as in former Soviet Union. They are all inter-related across the USA over years of moving back and forth. We are connected culturally nowadays. Times could get bad, but the country would survive as a nation.

Once I asked a neighbor here in Alaska if he envisioned Alaska ever being it's own country? Now this guy homesteaded his place in 1942 at the age of 19 and never left the country until going to Iowa for a fam reunion in 1997. He passed away last year actually. He told me Alaska would always be apart of america as Alaskans are becomming more like Americans everyday.

America will never collapse like russia did. Might be a war, but no country will ever invade as it would unite usa. Have you ever looked at the military might the USA possesses? Have you ever served in the military of USA? I'd be embarrassed to even make such silly predictions actually.

34 posted on 10/21/2009 11:33:26 PM PDT by Eska
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To: Kartographer

The only part of Illinois that would remain in the “North” would be the Peoples Republic of Chicago. The rest of the state would go south.


35 posted on 10/21/2009 11:54:05 PM PDT by TheBlueMax ("Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty. " (Ronald Reagan))
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To: Melas

Well there was the 1939-40 Russo-Finnish war...


36 posted on 10/22/2009 12:03:54 AM PDT by kamikaze2000
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To: Eska

You’re mistaken. I’ve never once speculated that America is going to splinter. The thread is what if scenerio posited by the original poster. If we were discussing the probability of it actually happening, it would be a different thread. And yes, I served, thanks for asking.


37 posted on 10/22/2009 12:13:23 AM PDT by Melas
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To: trumandogz
The North-South split will be at the Mason-Dixon line probably, although Delaware may come along.

The northeast is an economic basket case and will drag down anyone who takes them on.

Texas and Mexico? Not going to happen.

California will stand or fall by itself.

38 posted on 10/22/2009 3:15:33 AM PDT by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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To: Kartographer
Mene Mene Tekel U-Pharsin !



39 posted on 10/22/2009 6:48:11 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist (There is no civility in the way the Communist/Marxist want to destroy the USA)
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To: Melas

It only takes a very few to cause havoc - just look at Iraq.


40 posted on 10/22/2009 6:59:55 AM PDT by uscabjd
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"...trueblood Southerns and Yankees will kill each other instantly..."

A Second War of Northern Aggression?

41 posted on 10/22/2009 7:04:55 AM PDT by I Buried My Guns
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To: TheZMan
"...I don’t think the southern grouping would be “part of Mexico or under Mexican influence” though...."

I live in Houston, and can attest that we are already "under Mexican influence”!

42 posted on 10/22/2009 7:06:45 AM PDT by I Buried My Guns
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To: I Buried My Guns
On that note, I sincerely think that if, God forbid, any of this comes to pass, the illegal Mexicans will be run out of our country very quickly.

With local control comes local action, and it makes sense that as soon as political control passes into the hands of the states (as opposed to what we have now), the populace will demand and recieve action.

43 posted on 10/22/2009 7:12:31 AM PDT by I Buried My Guns
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

America has been two countries for a long time. There’s Versailles on the Potomac as one country and the rest of America the other.

People in places as diverse as Dallas and New York, Miami and Anchorage, or Tulsa and Philadelphia all have the same wants, needs and desires. People everywhere want a steady, well paying job; they all need the basics and they have a desire to be better off than their parents.

Then there is Versailles on the Potomac - insulated, uncaring, unaware and dismissive. The sooner we cut off relations with Versailles, the better off we will all be.


44 posted on 10/22/2009 9:20:23 AM PDT by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo
This is what the USA will look like.

Alaska will be South of Tijuana and Hawaii will be in the Gulf of California?

Weird.

45 posted on 10/28/2009 10:40:59 PM PDT by SIDENET ("If that's your best, your best won't do." -Dee Snider)
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To: Knitting A Conundrum
Person who made this map is really unfamiliar with regional feeling and cultural attitude.

Yup. No way is California going to stay unified. Northern and Southern California are already like separate states and even the liberal City of Los Angeles doesn't like northern California.

46 posted on 10/28/2009 10:53:44 PM PDT by altair (All I want for Christmas is NO legislation passed for the rest of the year)
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