PPP Poll: Mixed Reviews in Missouri for Obama (PPP results show him trailing all but Palin!)

Public Policy Polling ^ | 12/02/2010

[SeekAndFind]

Barack Obama's best chance to win Missouri may have passed...unless the Republicans nominate Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich. After losing the state by the smallest of margins in 2008 Obama is now unpopular in the state, with 52% of voters disapproving of him to only 43% who approve. He trails Mike Huckabee by 7 points (49-42) and Mitt Romney by 6 points (47-41) in hypothetical match ups. But Palin and Gingrich are even more unpopular in the state than he is and as a result he leads Palin by a 46-43 margin and trails Gingrich only 45-44.

Huckabee is the only one of the Republicans Missouri voters are particularly fond of. 51% have a favorable opinion of him to only 29% with a negative one. He's pretty universally well liked with Republicans, a quarter of Democrats view him positively, and with independents he's at a 46/27 spread. All the rest of the Republicans have negative favorability numbers, with them all following the same formula: Democratic voters dislike them more strongly than GOP ones like them and they all get negative reviews from independents. Romney's favorability is a -12 spread (30/42), Palin's is -14 (39/53), and Gingrich's is -15 (33/48).

Obama gets 86-88% of the Democratic vote in all four match ups. He definitely doesn't have a base problem. The big differences are with independents and Republicans. With independents Romney and Huckabee both lead Obama by 12 points but Gingrich has just a 2 point edge and Palin actually trails by 5. There's also varying willingness among Republican voters to support their party's possible nominees- 89% commit to voting for Huckabee but that goes down to 83% for Romney and Gingrich, and only 76% for Palin. Huckabee does great with the Republicans and the independents, Romney does great with the independents and ok with the Republicans, Gingrich does ok with the Republicans but not with the independents, and Palin doesn't really do well with either.

The numbers in Missouri fit what we've been seeing in most of our 2012 polls: it just depends on who the Republicans nominate. If it's Palin or Gingrich Obama does as well or even a little bit better than he did in 2008. If it's Romney or Huckabee he does about 5 or 6 points worse, which nationally equates to a toss up. His standing has slipped in Missouri and especially after the state's lopsided Senate election this year he probably shouldn't be able to win there in 2012- but the Republican might just help him out.

Full results here

[SeekAndFind]

The Poll results look fishy to me.

I don't believe Missouri ( ALWAYS a red state ) will favor Obama over ANY Republican ( Palin included ).

[dforest]

Your add on to the title is confusing.

[napscoordinator]

The Poll results look fishy to me.

Of course they do. They don’t go the way that we want them too. Remember all the BS polls about Boxer being ahead but we dismissed them. The polls that showed Reid ahead and we dismissed those too. How about O’Donnell who clearly won the election hands down by SOME polls but we believed those because our guy was winning. It is the same thing over and over again.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Missouri is not always a Red State. In 2006, it voted in McCaskill and every State wide race except Lt. Governor went to the Democrats.

[samtheman]

Even if it’s true for now, a lot of time remains.

[JaguarXKE]

PPP - Propa Propa Propaganda

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Your add on to the title is confusing.

---

I really should say all other GOP candidates but Palin, but I got cut off.

[Artemis Webb]

McCain barely carried Missouri. In fact the final results weren’t in for weeks. The Democrat vote is strong in Kansas City, St. Louis and Columbia.

[rob777]

"I don't believe Missouri ( ALWAYS a red state ) will favor Obama over ANY Republican ( Palin included )."


I think that it is too early to get overly excited by the polls. That being said, our track record of rejecting polls in 2006 showing a coming Democratic victory, should give us pause in rejecting polls too easily. It is all too easy to fall into a habit of rejecting polling data that we do not like.

[Artemis Webb]

RE #3:

Well said.

[9YearLurker]

I believe the poll, which after all has Palin within the margin of error. And I think it would be ridiculous to rule her out at this point because of a few points difference in polls (no, this isn’t the only one) almost two years before the actual election.

Remember: moderates and independents are the last to make up their minds anyway, so they probably won’t actually be decided for another 22 1/2 months.

[Artemis Webb]

Wooooo Hooooooo
The voice of reason!

[dforest]

If we can just cover our ears and close our eyes we can make it so!

LOL

[OldDeckHand]

Good points.

I would add that while it's true that PPP has almost all Democrat clients, it's also true that they were a remarkably accurate pollster this year. In fact, they may have been the only major pollster that accurately predicted an O'Donnell upset in the DE Republican primary.

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

I like that Palin after all the attacks she has sustained is virually tied with Obama in this poll.

[blarney]

I got ripped for saying on a thread about Palin that I didn’t think she could win. I was called a rino, told to leave the board, questioned my intelligence and was called a troll. I have nothing against Palin and I like her I just think I am in a very small minority when it comes to the populace that supports her. I think she would better serve conservatives if she kept doing as she is doing and stayed out of the actual political arena. She has help motivate a very strong movement towards conservatism and she hasn’t had to get into the filth of politics since she quit being governor.

[TexasFreeper2009]

lol

If the Zero couldn't win Missouri in 2008 at the height of his messianic, football stadium filling, girl feinting, popularity. When he was running against a Republican that most conservatives had to throw up after voting for.

He doesn't stand a chance in He$$ of winning it in 2012, even if the republicans nominated Mickey Mouse.

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

thats bullshit man

she is not afraid of ripping into a black President. all of these other guys would treat Obama like a fragile glass slipper.

[earlJam]

Here’s the deal... Daily Kos’ PPP is trying to pump up Palin in order to lure her into the race.

[OldDeckHand]

'With independents Romney and Huckabee both lead Obama by 12 points "

That should strike fear into the hearts of everyone. I would be interested in seeing a graphic that shows what states have closed primaries, and what states don't. If anyone knows of such a graphic, or chart, please post it.

Huckabee (for some strange reason) and Romney more predictably, are popular with independents. Those independents could have a decisive impact in the states that allow them to vote in party primaries. That's not good.