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Why Governor Perry is still likely to be nominated
Red State ^ | October 27, 2011 | barleycorn

Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perry’s campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.

Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.

Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:

Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.

Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.

Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.

Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I don’t blame him for that. The process that currently passes for “debate” is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.

What Governor Perry does have is:

A demonstrated ability to win elections.

A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.

A Reaganesque capacity to touch the “mystic chords of memory” that bind us together.

A large stockpile of cash.

A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.

While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, don’t win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T nationalpolls.com)

The Democrat’s experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today can’t stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.

For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.

The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.


TOPICS: Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 0heartless0; campaigning; delusional; derangement; economy; gopprimary; perry2012; perryastroturfing
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To: indylindy
Yeah, my group believes in US sovereignty and doesn’t believe in leaders using executive orders to force vaccines on the innocent because we know better than they do and because we get money and donations from drug companies. LOL

Perry is a crony capitalist and he will never be able to go after Obama for doing what he has no problem doing. Perry is lethal.

Get with it. Will ya?

I see that you are from Indiana. Exactly how much do you know about Texas? It looks as if you do not are not exactly up to date.

201 posted on 10/27/2011 3:02:42 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
You support him. I won't.
He's NOT a conservative.
If he's on the ticket, I'll do a write-in.
I'm not wasting my vote promoting an "Establishment Republican".
Palin was my first choice
Bachmann is now my first choice, and Cain is my second.
Newt is my third choice, and I might consider Rick Santorum.

But Romney, Perry, Ron Paul, Huntsman, and Johnson are NOT acceptable,
and if on the ballot for the general election for President or V.P., would cause me to do a write in.


There's no way in hell I can compromise my values.

Jack Kerwick wrote an article on May 24, 2011 titled The Tea Partier versus The Republican and he expressed some important issues that I agree with.


I'm fresh out of "patience", and I'm not in the mood for "compromise".
"COMPROMISE" to me is a dirty word.
Let the RINO's compromise their values, with the conservatives, for a change.

The "Establishment Republicans" can go to hell!
202 posted on 10/27/2011 3:03:22 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: miss marmelstein
I’ve never met a politician who I haven’t thought was a nice guy - and that includes my former governor, Jim McGreevey, who sweetly kissed my best friend on the cheek one week before announcing he was a “gay American.” (My best friend is a lady!) So, I’m pretty cynical about that.

Mr. Perry, nice guy or not, is simply not up to the job and it seems that the majority of freepers have figured that out. But, like all pols, he will do what he has to do, until he runs out of money.

**********************************

I hear you and I agree. Niceness is an important attribute in a candidate, but if unaccompanied by intelligence it is worthless.

203 posted on 10/27/2011 3:04:21 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: FReepers; everyone; All





Everyone here is smarter than that one.


Please Donate Today!






204 posted on 10/27/2011 3:07:19 PM PDT by onyx (You're here on FR, so support it! Compiling New Sarah Ping List. Let me know if you want on it.)
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To: Irish Eyes
Exactly how much do you know about Texas? It looks as if you do not are not exactly up to date.

****************************

Is Perry a candidate running for the presidency of Texas? That's good to know.

205 posted on 10/27/2011 3:14:56 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
I refer you to post #184. Yeah, Perry creating lots of jobs for ILLEGALS.
206 posted on 10/27/2011 3:16:43 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die!)
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To: Chasaway

This goes to “eyewitness” reports of so many who have met Governor Perry in real life. I have heard people time and time again say that in person, Rick Perry is a genuine person, a real human being, and a person you can feel comfortable with.

Now, you just clued us in that Rick and Anita Perry are wonderful servants of God’s love and grace too and that they have a special love for military men and women and for vets.

What’s more is that their love and care for the military men and women of our country is not just on a political level (which those of us from Texas know is definitely evident) but also on a personal level.

Thanks for sharing that with us.

I think it’s good we get to hear the real person that is behind that politician with strong stands on principles and policy.

After all, if he were sitting in that Oval Office come January 2013, we would be getting both that strong politician we all know him to be as well as that gracious person you just described.

Romans 12: 1:
Therefore, I urge you, brothers and sisters, in view of God’s mercy, to offer your bodies as a living sacrifice, holy and pleasing to God—this is your true and proper worship.


207 posted on 10/27/2011 3:34:34 PM PDT by casinva
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To: normy

Good point. Actually, I started out as a Cain supporter—then he said some things that made me think twice about that. And then when I mentioned that after those remarks I liked Perry a little better, the vitriol was astounding—enough so that at this point, judging from Cain’s supporters, I wouldn’t vote for him if he were the last candidate on the ballot. I wonder if they realize how much harm they are doing for the man they claim to support?


208 posted on 10/27/2011 3:35:36 PM PDT by MizSterious (Apparently, there's no honor when it comes to someone else's retirement funds.)
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To: teg_76; Electric Graffiti
Give it a break! Your spamming of freerepublic is getting very obnoxious. The guy is a stammering dunce in the debates and was dumb enough to tell 75% of the country they had no heart.

Ya don't like 20 articles a day being posted by the Perry fan club?

Where's your humor?

See, the strategy is if they post enough pics of him posing on hay bales with his dog, shooting a six shooter at Knotts Berry Farm, kissing the Pope, or roping heifers and other assorted farm animals, the easily led and those and drooling in cups will love him!

209 posted on 10/27/2011 3:35:49 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: Liz; South40; BobL; cripplecreek

Ping.


210 posted on 10/27/2011 3:45:06 PM PDT by TADSLOS (Rick Perry engages in corporate welfare via Texas TEF/ETF)
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To: af_vet_rr
You think that if Cain got the nomination, that Republicans wouldn't vote for him?

No, I think ONLY Republicans vote for him. I don't think he'd get hardly any of the mushy middle or crossover vote that is needed to actually national win elections. And if that is not bad enough, as a complete novice he is far too likely to do and say stupid things that blow up his campaign.

With the exception of Romney, any other Republican, even Ron Paul, can beat Obama. Any.

Yes, I see this same insane overconfidence on FR sometimes and wonder if the people that say this stuff actually have any real experience with, or understanding of, our election system and history. You do not know what the political conditions will be in Nov 2012, and you'd better be planning for a very tough, close election.

211 posted on 10/27/2011 3:48:09 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: MizSterious
Of course. I wanted to like Cain and he was actually my second choice for a while. When he refused Perry as a VP possibility but liked Mitt I became suspect. Then people claiming to support Cain started getting really ugly, even though I am sure some of those were Romney people. Now I think if Perry doesn't make it I will support Gingrich.

I wont be voting for Cain unless he runs against Obama.

212 posted on 10/27/2011 3:49:02 PM PDT by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: Longbow1969
Yes, I see this same insane overconfidence on FR sometimes and wonder if the people that say this stuff actually have any real experience with, or understanding of, our election system and history. You do not know what the political conditions will be in Nov 2012, and you'd better be planning for a very tough, close election.

Obama ain't going to be able to fix his problems between now and November 2012, not when a lot of those were problems he promised to fix when elected the first time. 2010 showed that his supported started to drop pretty quickly.
213 posted on 10/27/2011 3:52:31 PM PDT by af_vet_rr
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To: GeronL
I agree. His comment about "no heart" is what did him in. But the real reason why he isn't likely to go all the way is his reluctance to debate; he just plain sucks at it. I can understand the jockeying with the other Republican Candidates and making allowances for him. But the nod, if he gets it, mandates he debate the One (The Evil One) in a venue with moderators that will bias and slant every question for Obama and against Perry. This is just a given. It wouldn't surprise me that Obama will be allowed a teleprompter in each debate.

If Perry is going to skip out on most of the rest of the GOP debates, this just confirms what we all know.

214 posted on 10/27/2011 3:57:24 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
You have a really creepy obsession with this man's picture. Particularly when you choose to use one when replying to a logical and cogent response on your posts. You mostly just don't make any sense.....just papp and pictures - over and over and over.
215 posted on 10/27/2011 4:00:51 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: miss marmelstein
Up to the job? Rick Perry runs a state with 24 million people, with the 13th largest economy in the world and a 1200 mile international border.

He's flown C-130's all over the world.

He was an Air Force Captain with a military command. He's an Eagle Scout.

He created over a million jobs while the US lost 2 million.

Rick Perry is more qualified to be president and is more ready to lead this nation than Herman Cain has ever been in his life.

Rick Perry came from the poor rural cotton farms of West Texas and became the governor of one of the most powerful states in the US.

There is no better candidate. Better debater? Romney and Newt.

Better motivational speaker? Yep Herman Cain (who by the way has a rule among his lower level staff, don't speak unless spoken too).

Better candidate for President. No way. More prepared to lead this nation? Perry and Newt are the only ones.

216 posted on 10/27/2011 4:03:12 PM PDT by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: af_vet_rr
Obama ain't going to be able to fix his problems between now and November 2012, not when a lot of those were problems he promised to fix when elected the first time. 2010 showed that his supported started to drop pretty quickly.

A lot of that depends on what the environment is at the time. Will the country be talking about debt or will we be talking about some mythical "jobs bill" or some other issue. Nothing can stay forefront in the news forever, the media moves from issue to issue and a lot depends on what captures the public's interest.

Further, this is not the same country as it was in the past. The American population is much more dependent on government and will likely vote more and more like Europe. 47% now pay no income taxes, 48% are in some way dependent on government transfer payments. Where once upon a time people felt screwed by a bad economy and wanting to give the new guy a try, now they are living off government money and have far less incentive to do that - worse, the dependence this creates makes it far LESS likely they would vote for someone who threatened to curtail or eliminate their freebies.

You are absolutely dreaming if you believe Obama will be easy to beat. He will get no less than 45% of the vote, and it is far more likely he will be closer to 50%. If I had to guess 2012 will be close, along the lines of 2004 - if we nominate someone that can't hold up through a tough election we will lose.

217 posted on 10/27/2011 4:09:04 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Yosemitest; magritte

Wow. Case in point.


218 posted on 10/27/2011 4:46:13 PM PDT by txhurl (Did you want to talk or fish? Or feed the fish?)
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To: txhurl

Yep. Most of the anti-Perry’s are illegal haters. Bottom line.


219 posted on 10/27/2011 5:26:59 PM PDT by magritte
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To: Yosemitest

Yes I do, the voter ID law is to keep illegal aliens from voting. Seems like you are the one supporting illegals, isn’t that funny! Here you’ve tried to convince everyone here that you are so against illegals and you are complaining about the voter ID law. The only people I have ever heard fight an ID law are illegals, their enablers, and.....democrats.


220 posted on 10/27/2011 5:28:54 PM PDT by McGavin999 ("Make what Americans buy, Buy what Americans make, and sell it to the world" Perry 2012)
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