Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perry’s campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.
Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.
Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:
Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.
Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.
Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.
Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I don’t blame him for that. The process that currently passes for “debate” is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.
What Governor Perry does have is:
A demonstrated ability to win elections.
A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.
A Reaganesque capacity to touch the “mystic chords of memory” that bind us together.
A large stockpile of cash.
A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.
While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, don’t win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T nationalpolls.com)
The Democrat’s experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today can’t stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.
For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.
The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.
No one invited you to click on this thread or post a comment so you obviously like to.
These endless photos of your boy crush - it’s like reading Tiger Beat for middle-aged women - has gotta stop. It’s not helping, I’m telling you. He’s not that great!
Really? How is he doing that?
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Wonder how she is at debating?
“These endless photos of your boy crush - it’s like reading Tiger Beat for middle-aged women”
LOL!
Actually, Erick Erickson isn't a Rick Perry fan these days.
Amelia Perry(right), mother of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, shows her quilts at a meeting of the Buffalo Gap Republican Woman's Club at Perini Ranch Steakhouse Friday.
Perry called this quilt her "Scarlet O'Hara" quilt, because she made it out of a curtain during a time she was getting cancer treatments and spending most of her time at home.
If he is nominated, it will convince me beyond a doubt that my voted doesn’t count.
That’s gonna cost him big here in South Carolina after all the fighting we had to do protecting the noble heritage of the Confederate battle flag from Leftist hate groups.
It’s a battle flab not the national flag—it ain’t got nothing to do with slavery and ours did not fight for or against slavery but to defend our homes against the Yankee invader.
Perry = great candidate on paper. So far, that’s about it.
Even in interviews Perry is not fast on his feet and does not demonstrate an ability to intellectually explain WHY conservative governance works. He is mostly right on the issues, but his communications skills are seriously lacking.
I am still giving him a chance. His flat tax plan is vastly better than 999, and I at least have confidence Perry knows how to win elections as he has demonstrated many times in the past. He really just needs to loosen up, relax a little in front of the camera and brush up on his debate skills.
I do agree, polls mean nothing right now.
No one invited me to post here?
I wish no one invited me to listen to GOP debate #3 where your Perry gave this brilliant answer.
“I think Americans just don’t know sometimes which Mitt Romney they’re dealing with. Is it the Mitt Romney that was on the side of — against the Second Amendment before he was for the Second Amendment? Was it — was before — he was before the social programs from the standpoint of — he was for standing up for Roe versus Wade before he was against first — Roe versus Wade? Him — he was for Race to the Top. He’s for Obamacare and now he’s against it. I mean, we’ll wait until tomorrow and — and — and see which Mitt Romney we’re really talking to tonight.”
Misfire: Romney Ad Targets Rick Perry's Jobs Record "I think it's safe to say the Romney campaign is going for the kill with its latest attack on Rick Perry. The former Massachusetts Governor has already gotten a fair amount of mileage out of attacking his Texan rival from the left on Social Security, and from the right on immigration, but this new spot strikes at the heart of the Perry campaign's raison detre -- jobs, jobs, jobs:
The Facts --Mitt Romney's political ad
[snip]
The spot's most striking image is a tumbleweed blowing along a deserted Texas highway. That's rich. It's intended to create the impression that Rick Perry's Texas is something of a depressed ghost town. Nothing could be further from the truth. Since the recession began, desperate job seekers have flocked to Texas at a clip of roughly 1,000 people per day. And they're finding work, too. Despite a huge population influx and a bruising national recession, Texas' unemployment rate remains below the national average. How remarkable has the Lone Star State's economic performance been? Read this Political Math analysis (written by a self-professed non Perry supporter), and marvel. One telling data point:
It is a bit more than paper...take a look at Texas.
Even in interviews Perry is not fast on his feet and does not demonstrate an ability to intellectually explain WHY conservative governance works. He is mostly right on the issues, but his communications skills are seriously lacking.
You sound exactly like the left when Ronald Reagan ran and won the Presidency.
See?
You just can’t stay away.
He’s has no lips!
As Vincent Gardenia said to Cher in “Moonstruck” when speaking about her sneaky boyfriend: “He’s got no lips, Loretta! I don’t trust a man who has no lips!”
If Rick Perry wasn't going to be elected you and your few zealots would ignore we 3%ers but you can't because deep down you know we're right.
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