Posted on 10/27/2011 11:05:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Numerous preemptive obituaries are being written for Governor Rick Perry’s campaign. These efforts are premature because they fail to understand and appreciate the fickle winds of political fortune.
Governor Perry has substantial political assets that make him a potent candidate and that will give him another chance to prove himself to Republican voters.
Each candidate brings their own set of positives and negatives to the game:
Mitt Romney has money to burn, establishment support, business experience, and passable debating skills. He also has a record far to the left of the majority of Republicans, a history of changing his position on major issues, and gives the impression that he will let you down when your back is turned.
Herman Cain has business experience, a high likability factor, and a fresh approach to conventional problems. He also has a propensity for confusing statements, no history of political success, and seems less vested in his own campaign than are his supporters.
Newt Gingrich has laser-like intelligence, a thorough understanding of policy choices, and excellent debating skills. He also has two ex-wives, a tendency to talk too much, and a manner that strikes many independents and women as smug or arrogant.
Rick Perry is not an able debater. In fact he seems to be bored with the entire exercise and I don’t blame him for that. The process that currently passes for “debate” is a valueless mixture of antagonistic press conference and TV quiz show. Rick Perry is not a policy wonk. Neither was Ronald Reagan. Neither was Dwight Eisenhower. Neither was George Washington.
What Governor Perry does have is:
A demonstrated ability to win elections.
A demonstrated understanding of how to lead and govern.
A Reaganesque capacity to touch the “mystic chords of memory” that bind us together.
A large stockpile of cash.
A set of opponents who all have significant electoral problems of their own.
While being ahead is intuitively always better than being behind, the clear political fact is that polls in October-November-December, don’t win elections in January and February. An Iowa State University poll published on November 18, 2003 showed Howard Dean at 29%, Dick Gephardt at 21%, John Kerry at 15%, and John Edwards at 8%. A Pew Research poll published on December 2, 2003 showed Dean at 26%, Gephardt at 22%, Kerry at 9%, and Edwards at 5%. (H/T nationalpolls.com)
The Democrat’s experience in 2004 is I think highly relevant as it was largely the mirror image of 2012. Eight years ago Democrats loathed George W. Bush just as conservatives today can’t stomach Barack Obama. Like Obama now, Bush was widely seen as vulnerable and thus there was a wide open scrum for the Democrat nomination.
For all his money Mitt Romney has been unable to close the deal with Republican voters. For all his current polling success, Herman Cain still appears to be a long shot to stay the distance. For all of his smarts and ability Newt Gingrich retains major downside risks.
The flaws of his opponents, together with his own considerable skill and potential, leaves an opening the size of Texas for Governor Rick Perry.
Thank you for caring.
Hey knock off the ‘heartless’ stuff! You know it just drives the perryTINKLES to wince each time they see it. So quit being so heartless!
If it comes down between Perry and Romney (and I don't think it will), people will gravitate to the RINO with better presentation skills.
He needs to quit siphoning votes away from Herman Cain, the clear conservative choice and current front runner.
See my post #62.
I’m a fan, too.
However, I AM a “Perrywinke”...I guess!
Perry is worse, but yeah, something like that. Let's never, ever nominate a candidate who has such poor communication skills again. GW Bush was never able to really advance conservatism much if at all, and his administration was constantly fumbling around with an inability to coherently fight back against the media and critics. We can thank the Democrats nominating a buffoon like John Kerry for the fact Bush was able to win the 2nd term.
Think of it like this. If you've ever watched England's Prime Ministers Questions where the PM actually has to speak coherently and answer questions on the fly, I'd say that is the minimum required to be an effective communicator and a President who can lead. I agree with Perry on almost all the issues. I really don't care about HPV and am willing to forgive him some of the immigration stuff. I am not, however, willing to vote in the primaries for a candidate who can't communicate. And so far, that is precisely the problem I have with Perry. I'm still giving him a chance, I hope he does better, I am in no way anti-Perry, but as of now I question whether he can recover because I have my doubts about his ability to speak clearly and intellectually defend WHY conservative governance is the correct path forward.
I see you two have met. That’s good.
Now you’ll have someone to talk to.
Carry on.
My kind of guy!
Thank you for posting the link as well.
What’s the difference between “you don’t have a heart” and “you’re heartless”? Same meaning to me.
That’s not even the point though. The point is not what he called 75% of the country, the point is that by saying that is shows where he stands on illegal immigration and the rule of law. His constant use of the phrases “by no fault of your own” and “regardless of what your last name is” is pandering to the worst degree, and indicates what he feels about us who oppose illegal immigration and in state tuition. Worst of all, it was just stupid and show an ignorance of what the electorate wants.
Us and about 90% of FR. Give it up, your boy is not popular here.
” Honestly your constant pitching for Perry is a real turnoff and I wouldn’t vote for him now if it was down to him and Obama. “ <<<
One can see that only a cutting edge patriot like yourself “...wouldn’t vote for him now if it was down to him and Obama”. It is not your vote we seek, though there is some reward in hearing your angst. LOL! More is on the way.
If it were not for us Perrynistas, btw, you would be bored with having to trim your cuticles, obviously, what with no dog to kick. Ouch!
While anything can happen in politics, Perry had his moment, and when the spotlight was on him, he didn’t just fumble, he handed the ball away in his own end zone to the other team.
He got the Anyone But Romney crowd for a moment, then they watch him fall on his face, and have now moved onto Cain, where they will likely watch him fall on his face as well... and so it will go until the last person standing besides Mitt will get their votes, and like our Romper Room President did by being the last mand standing for the “anyone but hillary” crowd 4 years go, that person will likely be the nominee.
As I see it now, that’s most likely going to be Gingrich.. I just don’t see Perry making a comeback, the electorate gave him a chance, and after seeing the whole cow, opted not to buy the heiffer.
LOL, you rock!
Exactly, we need someone who can eloquently express conservatism. Perry seems to be worse than GWB, who was horrible in that regards.
As important as illegal immigration is to me, I do not see that as an issue the masses find as important as Obamacare, taxes and the economy. Perry certainly has not closed the deal with me--he`s behind Cain and Gingrich in terms of conservative principles that are in line with mine.But I think it is hard to deny that such seemingly less-important issues as debating skills and smooth delivery are actually very important in terms of voter comfort with Perry. And he comes off as confused and distracted in these areas. His communications skills may doom him
Not likely. Rick Perry may love illegals, but he doesn't hate U.S. citizens.
BO, on the other hand, would like to replace U.S. citizens with illegal aliens.
Thanks for going normy, I wish I could go but I'll be with you guys in spirit.
“The guy is a stammering dunce in the debates and was dumb enough to tell 75% of the country they had no heart. Obama, as weak as he is, would shred Perry in a debate.”
100% agree.....I’ll be disgusted if Romney or Perry get the nomination. If they do it will be just like 4 years ago when we got McLame jammed up our azzes. I can’t understand how he came from so far back to be the nominee in 08. I’m thoroughly convinced it was planned.
Thanks for your kind reply.
I intend to post it whenever I see posts/threads about Governor Perry being a liberal/commie lover/liberal/American hater/liberal/whatever...
It’s my belief that, among the current crop, he’s the man’s man...and that he shoots it straight and some folks take that as being a jerk.
Or they already have their selection in mind and boomerang EVERYTHING to being a Perry bash fest.
He ain’t perfect; but I like him.
” Us and about 90% of FR. Give it up, your boy is not popular here. “ <<<<
Take it somewhere else yourself, since your faux 90% has a lose-lose record already banked. We’ll hang with Perry, thank you, who has come from behind with precision. Don’t like the thread? Well, tough. But, hang around. We can give as good as we get. There are celebrity threads for you to peruse, but no, your here concerned about the guy with the goods. LOL! Substance will trump your mouth and Cain’s also, is my best bet. But, you have a couple of months to catch up to speed. Enjoy. More is coming.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.