Posted on 12/20/2011 3:26:04 PM PST by parksstp
FReepers, Need your Help:
Very shortly I'm going to be releasing my county by county analysis of the Iowa Caucus, projecting based on polling data and previous history the most likely outcome, along with an analysis of what % of each county vote the eventual GOP nominee will need to capture to have a shot at winning Iowa.
I don't know a whole lot of IA history, so I've been surprised to see so many voter totals going down in response to people leaving. Most of the counties I've analyzed so far have had a 1-8% decrease in voter turnout between 2004 and 2008. Those that have gained have been modest or not that significant.
HOWEVER, there's one county that set my BS radar off and I'd like to know if any other FReepers have any idea of where the discrepancy is coming from.
Specifically, ALLAMAKEE COUNTY, the northeastern most county in IA. Something doesn't smell right here.
In 2004, the Bush v Kerry Results were: Bush: 3,530/57% Kerry: 977/ 42%
In 2008, McCain, like he did in many counties in IA ran far under Bush's numbers, and even lost some counties that he should have won. However, the result in ALLAMAKEE county is far beyond any percentage gain Obama achieved in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, or Davenport.
McCain: 2,965/42% Obama: 3,971/57%
We went from about 4,500 total votes in 2004, to 6,900 votes in 2008. That's a 2,429 vote increase. Seems small, but when you equate that this is a rural county to begin with, that makes it almost a 53% Voter Increase!!!!
Okay, well with that massive an increase, I would suspect an increase in the population of the county. It in fact, decreased, and most of the IA counties I have examined that decreased in total population also experienced a decrease in voter totals between 2004 and 2008.
My question, where did these extra 3,000 votes in the county for Obama come from? About 1,000 I could probably account for with McCain's 600 vote decrease from Bush possibly going to Obama and "new" voters of around 400, which would still be a 10% increase for that county based on the total number of voters from 2004.
This 30-Point percentage swing and vote number though, is just too high to justify. Allamakee was a county where Obama did pretty well in the Caucuses (41%). I checked to see if the pattern held in the 2010 Governor's race, but Brandstad defeated Culver here 56-41% with about 5,100 votes cast.
Looking at the townships and cities there, the only place where funny business may seem to be occurring is in Postville. Other than that, the only other thing I could find was that this was supposedly one of Ron Paul's best showing in the 2008 Caucus with 21%, other than his showings in Jefferson and Osceola Counties.
I am truly stumped on this one though. Does anyone else have a reasonable explanation or know the area on the ground?
Well there were rumors that he was moving voters from one state to another. Moving voters from states where he had land slides in Democratic voters. He also I think was getting young college people to vote in the state where they were going to college then get absentee ballots from their home states. Obama also got 640 million dollars in campaign funds on his web site. I think that big donors were buying gift cards for people to donate to him that way he wasn’t breaking donation laws!
"In 2008, McCain: 2,965/42% Obama: 3,971/57% "
Your 2004 numbers are in error. Bush got 49.99% of the vote in that county (3,530 votes, as you stated), but Kerry got 3,449 votes (not 977), for 48.84%. The 2008 actual vote numbers are correct, although the percent is off, as Zero got 56%.
3530=57% x
x = 3530/.57 = 6193
so kerry must have had 2663 to get 42% .. maybe it is 2677
your 2004 numbers are wrong. Is the county growing in population?
Northeastern corner is next to Minnesota and Wisconsin. Maybe bringing in people over the border?
Postville has a meat packing plant. There was a large immigration raid there in 2008. The population changes are probably related to that packing plant.
Is it really voter fraud if no one votes but rather caucuses?
I think all the caucuses and primaries should be one one night nationwide with no totals reported till all the polls are closed. I don’t care if I have to wait till the next day.
How many total registered voters in 2004, 2006, 2008 & 2010? Did that number change significantly over time?
Voter turnout is usually pretty poor in the US. Something as galvanizing as the Obama campaign may explain the huge turnout. But fraud is also likely...
Ah, see what happens when I take the easy way of the copy/paste function in Excel for my county layout? Sheesh.
Sorry about that, forgot to change the numbers. Embarassing.
Can you compare the numbers of voter turn out for the DNC and GOP nominations? Is there a big difference with election votes?
Many possibilities for voter fraud:
More illegals living in the area? They don’t always show up in population increase numbers but they often show up in illegal votes.
The computerized voted is very easy to cheat on.
Was ACORN messing with fake voter registrations and fake mail in votes? Can you compare new voter registrations and mail ins from year to year?
>>>Postville has a meat packing plant. There was a large immigration raid there in 2008. The population changes are probably related to that packing plant.
Postville is in part in 4 counties... the population changes due to the plant raid could not have impacted Alamakee Co to that large a degree.
I did note Allamakee appears to be a "swing" county, and has gone with the winner of the Presidential race since 1972 (except for 1976 & 1992, although GHW Bush got just 39%, with Bubba underperforming at 35% and Perot with 23%).
I remember researching election returns in Louisiana in the '90s which showed a massive turnout in one election above a prior one... which was statistically improbable because the parish (county) in question had rapid population loss. That also happened to be the election where Mary Landieu "won" the Senate seat (1996). The GOP majority was too gutless on refusing to seat her despite evidence of fraud (and she still is in the Senate today).
Forgot to add, in case you haven’t seen this website, it is rather invaluable. My personal favorite, if only because it uses the proper party colors instead of the Orwellian post-2000 switcheroo (red for Democrat; blue for Republican).
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