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New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization
Watts Up With That? ^ | July 17, 2012 | Anthony Watts

Posted on 07/17/2012 10:46:23 PM PDT by Rocky

From the told ya so department, comes this recently presented paper at the European Geosciences Union meeting.

Authors Steirou and Koutsoyiannis, after taking homogenization errors into account find global warming over the past century was only about one-half [0.42°C] of that claimed by the IPCC [0.7-0.8°C].

------------------------------------------------

Here’s the part I really like: of 67% of the weather stations examined, questionable adjustments were made to raw data that resulted in:

“increased positive trends, decreased negative trends, or changed negative trends to positive,” whereas “the expected proportions would be 1/2 (50%).”

And…

“homogenation practices used until today are mainly statistical, not well justified by experiments, and are rarely supported by metadata. It can be argued that they often lead to false results: natural features of hydroclimatic times series are regarded as errors and are adjusted.”

(Excerpt) Read more at wattsupwiththat.com ...


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Science
KEYWORDS: climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax
A better method needs to be developed for "smoothing" the data. Current statistical methods bias towards warming trends.
1 posted on 07/17/2012 10:46:42 PM PDT by Rocky
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To: Rocky

When you are trying to detect a “signal” that’s buried in a “noise” background that’s on the order of 100 times larger amplitude - and you’re only looking at a hundred cycles of reference oscillator - you can pretty much call it any way you want. .92 degree, .46 degree, negative .23 degree, who knows?


2 posted on 07/17/2012 10:59:10 PM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: Steely Tom

Well, when you put it like that, the whole thing seems kind of silly.


3 posted on 07/18/2012 1:00:32 AM PDT by Rocky (Obama is pure evil)
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To: Rocky

Real Science did a post where he asked for your conversion moment to being a skeptic, if you had one: http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/07/18/2006-my-year-of-enlightenment/#comment-101862. My comment:

Here is the video — the three and half minutes of video — that converted me into a skeptic (disbeliever actually). In ~ June of 2007, by a chance click of a link, I watched the hour long Great Global Warming Swindle. But it was just the short “Al Gore segment” on CO2 that really really got my attention. I watched in astonishment as I realized, then and there, if this was true, that I had been had by the warmists. After I had done extensive googling looking for an effective rebuttal from the warmists, and found none, I was an anti-warmist. Realize that what this video shows is algor repeating the ipcc’s deception on CO2. This is a deception that pretty much still holds with the public at large, that’s why it’s important to try to share and promote this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK_WyvfcJyg&feature=player_embedded


4 posted on 07/18/2012 1:44:03 AM PDT by Hokestuk
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To: Steely Tom
you can pretty much call it any way you want. .92 degree, .46 degree, negative .23 degree, who knows?

Well by the Weak Climatetological Principle*, only one kind of call will get published.

* (joke allusion to weak anthropic principle)

5 posted on 07/18/2012 2:08:52 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: Hokestuk

It was the ice core lag that turned me to skeptic as well...although I had gotten suspicious a bit before that when the Mann hockey stick graph got exposed as using faulty statistics.


6 posted on 07/18/2012 2:15:47 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: Steely Tom

Now, now Tom. Don’t use technical jargon when you are speaking to scientific illiterates (who also happen to be converts to the Church of Global Warming).


7 posted on 07/18/2012 3:28:58 AM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: Rocky

Authors Steirou and Koutsoyiannis, after taking homogenization errors

Damn homos strike again...


8 posted on 07/18/2012 3:29:39 AM PDT by Adder (Da bro has GOT to go!)
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To: Rocky

As I understand it one (of many) “adjustments” made to the raw data is for things like changing land use patterns around the data collection station. Farms are warmer than forest, towns warmer than farms,etc. Problem is, many of the adjustments made to the data are bigger than the trends the so-called “scientists” purport to have found in the data. All they’re really finding are second or third order effects in their adjustments.


9 posted on 07/18/2012 5:45:14 AM PDT by ThunderSleeps (Stop obama now! Stop the hussein - insane agenda!)
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To: Rocky
Satellite temperature data is far more reliable than ground station data, but it doesn't show any global warming so the warmists pretend it is not reliable.
10 posted on 07/18/2012 5:53:13 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: Steely Tom
The big problem, as you note, is that these guys are trying to get grant money to study temperature variations of tenths of a degree, when most of their input data comes from somebody having taken an eyeball reading of a thermometer in a shed that was accurate to maybe +/- 2 degrees.

You also have to take into account the inclination of people to log a nice-sounding number rather than actually going out in crappy weather to take a reading.

Plus, land temperature readings do not really give a good measure of whether the Earth is warming up or not. For that, ocean measurements are better. Unfortunately, ocean measurements do not support the global warming hypothesis.

11 posted on 07/18/2012 6:04:56 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (If I can't be persuasive, I at least hope to be fun.)
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To: ThunderSleeps
Problem is, many of the adjustments made to the data are bigger than the trends the so-called “scientists” purport to have found in the data. All they’re really finding are second or third order effects in their adjustments.

Nobody gets grant money from saying "we just don't have accurate enough data to draw any valid conclusions from it".

12 posted on 07/18/2012 6:07:17 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (If I can't be persuasive, I at least hope to be fun.)
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To: PapaBear3625
You're right. An un-biased look at the data would probably lead a real scientist to look for more data.

So much for scientific and intellectual honesty. Climate "science" to real science is what a used car lot is to retail sales.

13 posted on 07/18/2012 6:21:32 AM PDT by ThunderSleeps (Stop obama now! Stop the hussein - insane agenda!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; Rurudyne; steelyourfaith; Tolerance Sucks Rocks; xcamel; AdmSmith; ...

Thanks Rocky.


14 posted on 07/19/2012 6:04:22 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Rocky; SunkenCiv
Thanks for posting this ...and SCV thanks for the ping.

WUWT has a followup on this.

Will post it if not yet up!

15 posted on 07/20/2012 3:11:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: Rocky

No serious person still believes the global warming hoax.


16 posted on 07/20/2012 3:17:09 PM PDT by SUSSA
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To: Rocky
Followup at WUWT.....FR Thread:

More on Koutsoyiannis and the homogenization of temperature data – plus some comments on blog review

17 posted on 07/20/2012 3:18:12 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: SunkenCiv; Fred Nerks; Marine_Uncle; NormsRevenge; TigersEye; justa-hairyape; blam; SierraWasp; ...

fyi


18 posted on 07/20/2012 3:19:36 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
"New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization"

Ban weather stations immediately! ;^)

19 posted on 07/20/2012 3:30:56 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: TigersEye

OK....LOL!


20 posted on 07/20/2012 3:44:52 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

The solution to Glowbull Warming is so easy! If we could lock up Algore and put a ball gag on him that would eliminate the other half. lol


21 posted on 07/20/2012 3:48:12 PM PDT by TigersEye (Life is about choices. Your choices. Make good ones.)
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To: PapaBear3625

Exactly!

I always ask global warming folks why they think they know, within 1 degree even, the average world temperature in 1850. How many stations were there in the Yukon in 1850? How many in the Amazon? How many reading taken from the middle of the Pacific in 1850? How accurate were the gauges, and who thinks some guy in Alaska in the winter of 1850 was getting readings accurate to 1 degree, let alone 0.01 degree?

They just reply, “Science has proved...”


22 posted on 07/20/2012 4:03:52 PM PDT by Mr Rogers (Liberalism: "Ex faslo quodlibet" - from falseness, anything follows)
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To: SunkenCiv
Plus we have continued reductions of stations in the northern hemisphere, and many relocated within UHC (urban heat centers), placed next to air conditioning outlets, sitting on airport tarmacs, etc..
I know most here at this point know these facts, but just in case we have some beginners that are just getting on board.
23 posted on 07/20/2012 4:26:21 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned.)
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To: Mr Rogers
I always ask global warming folks why they think they know, within 1 degree even, the average world temperature in 1850. How many stations were there in the Yukon in 1850? How many in the Amazon?

Exactly. More to the point, the whole idea of "average world temperature" is useless. What's useful, from a human point of view, is measuring the degree to which temperatures diverge from what is optimal for humans, and where.

The assumption here is that (1) there is warming, and (2) warming is always bad. If winters become less harsh in the Yukon and Siberia, and temps stay much the same elsewhere, then that would be considered "global warming", but it would be a GOOD thing.

24 posted on 07/20/2012 5:40:08 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (If I can't be persuasive, I at least hope to be fun.)
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To: Marine_Uncle

As George Carlin said in one of his routines, “it’s 82 degrees at the airport. Which is stupid, because no one lives at the airport.”


25 posted on 07/21/2012 7:30:28 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: SunkenCiv

Tell GISS Hansen that. :)


26 posted on 07/21/2012 11:49:38 AM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned.)
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