Posted on 03/18/2014 8:14:11 AM PDT by Leroy S. Mort
A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN - almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event.
Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off.
Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca.
When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest.
The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn't pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do - you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.
Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport. For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one.
If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly).
What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route - looking elsewhere was pointless.
This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That's the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it.
Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot's viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too.
Fire in an aircraft demands one thing - you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn't instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.
Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction.
Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time.
Yes, this makes the most sense.
I recall a twitter pic posted when this 777 first disappeared, taken by a passenger in another jet, showing a jet engulfed in flames.
Anyone else remember this?
Malaysian Air Force that its military radar tracked the plane as it passed over the small island of Pulau Perak .
That is a hundred miles past the airport on Langkawi
It looks like it was headed fo Gan International airport in Maldives
A professional pilot is on Rush Limbaugh right now debunking this theory —
That is a hundred miles past the airport on Langkawi
Consistent with the theory that the plane continued on autopilot after the crew was incapacitated.
The pilot flipped out. He killed the copilot, turned off reporting systems, pulled circuit breakers and ascended to 45k ft. to kill everyone in back, (the masks didn’t drop because system breaker was pulled). Flight/voice recorders store the last 2 hrs. of data, pilot has no control over that, breakers not located in flight deck so he flies for hours to overwrite data and dumps the aircraft in the deep remote Indian Ocean.
That’s what I think happened.
Ok, this is another angle on the mechanical failure theory. Quite possible. If true it would make it somewhat easier to find the 777 as it would narrow down the flight path after the turn.
Another thread has an individual on Maldives seeing a low flying airplane that morning
“The climb to 40,000+ feet points to two things, and two things only; either to kill the passengers or extinguish a fire”
If there is a fire, you do not climb. If anything, you don oxygen masks and make an emergency descent, looking for the nearest suitable airport.
““The climb to 40,000+ feet points to two things, and two things only; either to kill the passengers or extinguish a fire””
There is basically no oxygen at 35,000 feet. No need to go to 40,000.
If there is no oxygen at 35,000 feet, how do the engines work? The jets I fly are certified to 45,000 feet, and I fly there routinely.
“If there is no oxygen at 35,000 feet, how do the engines work? The jets I fly are certified to 45,000 feet, and I fly there routinely.”
I didn’t say there was no oxygen at 35,000 feet. I said basically there is no oxygen in reference to human survivability and normal fires as referenced in the post I was responding to.
People and jet engines can function if you compress the air.
bfl
“The pilot flipped out. He killed the copilot, turned off reporting systems, pulled circuit breakers and ascended to 45k ft. to kill everyone in back, (the masks didn’t drop because system breaker was pulled). Flight/voice recorders store the last 2 hrs. of data, pilot has no control over that, breakers not located in flight deck so he flies for hours to overwrite data and dumps the aircraft in the deep remote Indian Ocean”
Why would he go to all that trouble if he “flipped out”. Seems to me if he were that crazy he’d have just flown it into the ocean immediately.
“Following the depressurization, the pilots did not receive supplemental oxygen in sufficient time and/or adequate concentration to avoid hypoxia and incapacitation. The wreckage indicated that the oxygen bottle pressure regulator/shutoff valve was open on the accident flight. Further, although one flight crew mask hose connector was found in the wreckage disconnected from its valve receptacle (the other connector was not recovered), damage to the recovered connector and both receptacles was consistent with both flight crew masks having been connected to the airplane’s oxygen supply lines at the time of impact. In addition, both flight crew mask microphones were found plugged into their respective crew microphone jacks. Therefore, assuming the oxygen bottle contained an adequate supply of oxygen, supplemental oxygen should have been available to both pilots’ oxygen masks.
[A] possible explanation for the failure of the pilots to receive emergency oxygen is that their ability to think and act decisively was impaired because of hypoxia before they could don their oxygen masks. No definitive evidence exists that indicates the rate at which the accident flight lost its cabin pressure; therefore, the Safety Board evaluated conditions of both rapid and gradual depressurization.
If there had been a breach in the fuselage (even a small one that could not be visually detected by the in-flight observers) or a seal failure, the cabin could have depressurized gradually, rapidly, or even explosively. Research has shown that a period of as little as 8 seconds without supplemental oxygen following rapid depressurization to about 30,000 feet (9,100 m) may cause a drop in oxygen saturation that can significantly impair cognitive functioning and increase the amount of time required to complete complex tasks.
A more gradual decompression could have resulted from other possible causes, such as a smaller leak in the pressure vessel or a closed flow control valve. Safety Board testing determined that a closed flow control valve would cause complete depressurization to the airplane’s flight altitude over a period of several minutes. However, without supplemental oxygen, substantial adverse effects on cognitive and motor skills would have been expected soon after the first clear indication of decompression (the cabin altitude warning), when the cabin altitude reached 10,000 feet (3,000 m) (which could have occurred in about 30 seconds).
Investigations of other accidents in which flight crews attempted to diagnose a pressurization problem or initiate emergency pressurization instead of immediately donning oxygen masks following a cabin altitude alert have revealed that, even with a relatively gradual rate of depressurization, pilots have rapidly lost cognitive or motor abilities to effectively troubleshoot the problem or don their masks shortly thereafter. In this accident, the flight crew’s failure to obtain supplemental oxygen in time to avoid incapacitation could be explained by a delay in donning oxygen masks of only a few seconds in the case of an explosive or rapid decompression or a slightly longer delay in the case of a gradual decompression.
In summary, the Safety Board was unable to determine why the flight crew could not, or did not, receive supplemental oxygen in sufficient time and/or adequate concentration to avoid hypoxia and incapacitation.[1]
Conclusions from the investigation of the Payne Stewart accident. And my hypothesis....Hey mines as good as anyone’s”
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Good info ......
Questions Over Absence of Cellphone Calls From Missing Flight’s Passengers
“Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction.”
Extend that line about 2000 nautical miles to the west and you cross the southern end of the Maldives, where witnesses say they saw a very low and loud white jet with red markings.
Maldives is 3 hours behind Malaysia, so if the people saw the plane at 6:15am, it would be 9:15am Malaysia time, or about 7.5 hours after the last radio contact. That distance on autopilot wouldn’t be unheard of.
Still a few loose ends, but why not take a look just west of the Maldives?
this dude makes more sense than anyone I have heard. What is “pull the busses”?
.
In this usage, busses=fuses. "Buss" being short for Cooper Bussmann - a brand of fuse.
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