Poll: Brown Trails by 10 Points in New Hampshire

blogs.wsj.com ^ | 6/19/14 | Reid Epstein

[cotton1706]

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D., N.H.) holds a commanding lead over Republican Scott Brown in a new Suffolk University poll out Thursday.

Ms. Shaheen leads Mr. Brown, the former Massachusetts senator, 49% to 39% in a poll of New Hampshire residents.

There’s still more bad news for Mr. Brown in the poll: His favorability rating trails well behind even President Barack Obama in the state. Suffolk’s poll found Mr. Brown is viewed favorably by just 35% in New Hampshire; 46% give him an unfavorable rating.

More In New Hampshire New Hampshire GOP Eyes 2016 Hopefuls for Cash WashWire Daily Brief: Ukraine Uses Military Force, Outside Donors Play Big Role in 2014 Races After Long Drumroll, Scott Brown Makes Senate Run Official Seib Video: Scott Brown Tilts New Hampshire Senate Race Scott Brown Has Scary Following in New Hampshire

Suffolk’s last poll, in March, found Ms. Shaheen leading Mr. Brown 52% to 39%. Other polling has found the race to be much closer: A Dartmouth survey in April showed Mr. Brown only three percentage points behind Ms. Shaheen.

For Mr. Obama, those numbers in the latest Suffolk poll are 45% favorable and 49% unfavorable – even though his job approval rating in the state is just 39% — below the 41% he received nationally in the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Wednesday. Ms. Shaheen rates 52% favorable and 37% unfavorable, Suffolk found.

The numbers are the latest evidence that the New Hampshire Senate race, despite Mr. Brown’s high-profile entrance, may not be among the top-tier contests this fall.

Ms. Shaheen, while still well ahead of Mr. Brown, is down slightly from Suffolk’s March poll, which was conducted before Mr. Brown declared his candidacy. She’s lost six percentage points from her favorability rating and three percentage points of her lead.

[ansel12]

New Hampshire is a liberal state.

[cotton1706]

It’s gotten increasingly liberal. Conservatives can still thread the needle there but it’s done by riding the middle ground between conservatism and moderation, not the middle ground between moderation and liberalism.

[jmaroneps37]

It comes down to this: If Bonehead Ryno and Cancer grant amnesty it won't make any difference who runs against whom, the Republicans not only won't take back the Senate they will loses a few House seats as well. But if they don't grant amnesty it won't matter who the Republicans put up against what Democrat, they will run the country from Maine to Hawaii. All of this in between is meaningless and it all rests on whether the Republicans want to commit suicide or not.