Posted on 10/15/2015 3:02:16 PM PDT by RaceBannon
Dr. Bill Forstchen
The United States is now the top energy producer in the world. For that, we are thankful. But all the shale gas, crude oil, coal, nuclear energy and renewables on earth are of little benefit if we do not have a secure means of delivering energy to our homes, our hospitals, schools and even our military. For this reason, we must focus on securing the U.S. electrical grid, the means of delivering our energy, at all costs.
Throughout history, literature has played a key role in educating and inspiring the public to think beyond to a world of possibilities as yet unknown to mankind both good and bad. Optimistic and degenerative. Science fiction novels inspired generations of students-turned-scientists to new heights of human achievement. Works by Orwell and Clancy took on an almost prophetic posture, catalyzing political philosophies and serving as cautionary tales for those who would pay the price of freedom which President Jefferson reminded us is eternal vigilance.
Joining their ranks is Dr. Bill Forstchen, author and technology historian who became inspired to make his contribution of vigilance in the form of a New York Times best-selling novel entitled, One Second After. This book is the product of years of study, having carefully analyzed official government reports warning of electromagnetic pulse or EMP and its existential threat to the modern electrical grid and our way of life. Dr. Forstchen paints the picture of what can happen if the United States does not heed the warning of its top security experts, leaving the U.S. electrical grid vulnerable to attack, whether man-made or natural in origin. The book portrays an attack on North America from an idyllic, small-town North Carolina setting. Americans find themselves tossed back into the 19th century as they fight for survival over a period of many months without electricity. Starvation, thirst and the inevitable societal breakdown ensues as modern Americans attempt to survive the world of their great-great grandparents, but with little knowledge or experience of their past.
Dont worry; this interview ends on a high note of what Americans can do to protect ourselves from the threat of EMP.
The host of the Jacki Daily show has had an impressive career in energy, law, and politics.
Most recently, Jacki served as General Counsel to an engineering firm specializing in energy, national security and environmental cleanup. Previously, she served many years as legal counsel on Capitol Hill to the Chairman of the Subcommittee on the Constitution and the former Ranking Member of the Commercial and Administrative Law Subcommittee, advising on the oversight of federal agencies. Prior to her career in Washington, she worked as a corporate litigator, and as an Assistant Vice President for a national bank.
She entered public life at a young age, as a finalist in the Miss Teen of America pageant. She also served as the Public Relations Director for a statewide political organization.
Jacki studied Economics, Spanish, and World History at Marshall University (Society of Yeager Scholars), Oxford University in the United Kingdom, and the University of Zaragoza in Spain. She is an alumna of the Vanderbilt University Law School, where she served as the President of the law schools Federalist Society chapter.
Jacki has an extensive network in her six overstuffed rolodexes from which the show draws its guestsincluding industry leaders representing all parts of the energy sector (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, solar, and wind), and government officials, journalists, and political insiders. Often, Jacki will know the days most-wanted guest and be able to secure the guest with a personal call.
Jacki is from the Ohio River Valley, where the shale runs deep. She descends from a long line of energy workers, including roughnecks, railroaders, coal miners, and nuclear energy specialists.
In before the cries of Fear Mongering and the EMP is complete fantasy crowd.
EMP threat is a real impending threat.
Even more risk is the poor state of infomation security vulnerability of power plant ICS SCADA systems.
The USA is a house of cards compound.
There will be FReepers along short that will school you and re-educate you from your fear mongering ways! (sarc)
EMP is real, but as an electronics engineer who has designed satellite electronics that had to withstand it, it isn’t going to blow up your wristwatch, your computer, or even your car. A high-altitude EMP 400km over Kansas would probably disable the American electrical grids for years, maybe permanently, and maybe 50% - 90% of the population would eventually die. But there still would be functioning cars, trucks, refineries, computers, wristwatches, etc.
I read his book. Interesting plot and it could have been a very good story, but the author’s tendency to go maudlin was annoying. His characters wept at the drop of a hat. They wept over old show tunes, for God’s sake.
Agreed. I got ticked off over the angst of executing a druggie who caused the deaths of some people. His last book "One Year After" ended as if there was another to follow (Five/Ten Years After??).
50% to 90%? More fear mongering! But lt looks as if the FR ‘experts’ are not interested in educating you tonight. That’s to bad seem you are in true need of reeducation!
What I haven’t heard is people discuss the yield factor, what size blast creating what power output blast in kj, do you know of a study?
Also, an over current that trips a 100,000 volt power line, you said that same airborne electron pulse transfer WONT fry internal electronics of non shielded simple devices? Watches? Clocks? Radios?
I worked with a couple spooks who did spectrum analysis for gov, had a few talks, they suggested we hide 400 feet under granite...
Yes, EMP is real. The truth is though, we really do not understand what the impact will be to modern infrastructure and electronics.
I could be devastating, it could be trivial, or someplace in between.
I do believe that the level of casualties you hypothesize is unlikely, but they will not be trivial, either.
In the end, we are just guessing until we get more data.
” an over current that trips a 100,000 volt power line, you said that same airborne electron pulse transfer WONT fry internal electronics of non shielded simple devices? Watches? Clocks? Radios?”
This is actually correct. It may seem counterintuitive. Small devices cannot absorb enough energy to create damaging fields internally.
A power line and a watch or cell phone are very different from an EMP perspective for a number of technical reasons I’d be happy to explain if you are truly interested.
“What I havent heard is people discuss the yield factor, what size blast creating what power output blast in kj, do you know of a study?”
Yes. An EMP is sensitive only to gamma yield. That means a fission device (kT) and a fission fusion device (MT) will produce about the same E1 (radio) pulse. A 1kT device will produce most of the energy as a 10 or 100 kT fission device.
Again a lot of technical reasons why this is so.
My main thought is over voltage and current in micro fibers of a chip and how some think that wont destroy the circuit inside but freely admit esd from a carpet will...
Well, it’s reassuring to know life may go on without much negative impact for the:
remnant 50 - 10% population,
our small devices will survive survive
and that refineries will supply fuel
Even though:
“A high-altitude EMP 400km over Kansas would probably disable the American electrical grids for years, maybe permanently, and maybe 50% - 90% of the population would eventually die.
But there still would be functioning cars, trucks, refineries, computers, wristwatches, etc.”
Oh joy!
ESD kills chips rather directly. There is a closed loop from electrostatically charged person to ground, flowing through a semiconductor junction. Thousands of volts is not out of the question.
With EMP - if a device is stand-alone (not plugged in or connected to something else) there is nothing to efficiently absorb the radiated energy of the EMP pulse, what energy is absorbed is generally far less than that required to bridge and destroy a semiconductor junction
So watch, cellphone, etc. are not likely to absorb enough energy to destroy it - if it’s in your pocket, or on your wrist.
That’s why ESD is different from EMP.
but you still have ESD issues with boards, not just chips, I still have to wear my wrist band and stand on the mat...
With a million volts flowing through the air, i find it hard to believe that much of an over voltage of electrons is NOT going to cause heat inside chips and fry them, each circuit is closed to some extent from their power source to their ground, it may be small and short distance, but it is still a path for flow...
“but you still have ESD issues with boards, not just chips”
True. So boards are more sensitive to EMP damage - especially if they are connected to other boards with ribbon cables and power supplies. Definitely vulnerable in that case.
The spectrum of an EMP is up to 1000MHz, but the majority of the energy is concentrated towards the lower end of the spectrum. This is the unclassified version of a “reference pulse”.
This means that longer wavelength energy will not readily couple to short wavelength conductors in the board. there are also polarization issues, and orientation issues. For electrically small devices the field strength (not the same as ESD voltage) even at 50,000 V/m the energy coupled into a stand alone system will be relatively small - perhaps within system tolerances. Damage is certainly possible, but not as likely for systems with electrically long conductors connected to it (power cords, conductive data cables, even ground wires, etc.)
The other thing to keep in mind - to differentiate from ESD - a “ground” in ESD is not necessarily a “ground” for RF/EMP. You can still get an RF shock (and arc across a semiconductor junction) without being specifically grounded. A ground wire can act as an antenna and direct energy INTO a system. This again seems counterintuitive, but it’s one of the joys of EMP/RF assessment.
I tink the concern , and you seem to agree in part with your last two posts, is not the rebuilding of the grid per se, but the rebuilding of individual components of society, component circuit boards
making a generator put out power, that can be done after a while, but you need something to put power too
that means you need to replace components on boards
you need people to troubleshoot those boards
most of them are dead by then
If you want to look at the greater issue -
Power generation, transmission, and distribution assets require hardening. Hardening can take many forms - and is usually referred to as “resiliency” vice “hardening”.
Resiliency measures may include shielding, logistical measures, spares/training measures, alternate communications measures.
There are lots of things to be done. Civil infrastructure is critical infrastructure - particularly power, water, and water treatment.
But as of this moment, we do not have a complete understanding of infrastructure damage to be expected (could be a little, could be a lot). We don’t know how vehicles will be impacted - especially late model vehicles.
You may well be right - that one key capability to getting things “up and running” will be the ability to replace components on a board, in some instances.
Ever read any of EMPact America stuff?
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