Why Mike Pence will almost certainly give Trump a bump in the polls tonight

Political Ref ^ | 10/04/16

[TheRef]

Why Mike Pence will almost certainly give Trump a bump in the polls tonight

Mike Pence: The medicine Trump needs at just the right time

Trump will almost certainly head into his second debate with Hillary Clinton either in a tie with Hillary, or at least moving up in the polls. The reason for this is simple, Mike Pence is front and center tonight and he's the guy who most Republicans like and can relate to, and they are the ones Trump needs.

It was Republicans who caused Trump to drop a bit in the polls after the first debate. I listed five polls to the right where Trump lost the most support, and in those polls most of his slippage came because Republicans backed off of their support for Trump after the first debate. Pence is a die hard conservative, not only in policy but in temperament. Republicans longing for someone to rally around who is like them will find that man in Mike Pence.

While one might ask, but should this already have happened by now? Only partially. Vice Presidential nominees matter most on three occasions, the selection, the convention speech and the debate. These events are not equal, however, in significance. As we move close to the election, more people pay attention. Now virtually everyone who is going to pay attention is paying attention. That makes the debate key.

Pence can score major points for Trump just by acting like a Republican tonight. Under normal circumstances, Pence would bring some Republicans home. But after Trump's bad week, the Pence effect will be doubly impactful. Especially if Pence hits the subject of the Supreme Court hard, the impact will likely be substantial.

Most of Trump's losses since the debate have come from Republican defections or loss of Republican enthusiasm. Below are five polls where Trump's losses were most significant after the debate. In each poll, the losses were highest among Republicans, Pence's natural audience.

Franklin & Marshall PA - 9/28-10/2	Trump receives 71% of GOP support while Clinton receives 79% of Democrats
PA - 9/30-10/3	Trump receives 75% of GOP support, while Clinton receives 90% of Democrats
Quinnipiac FL - 9/27-10/2	Trump receives 84% of GOP support, while Clinton receives 92% of Democrats
Fox News National - 9/30	Like the CNN poll below, results were the same in this 9/30 poll as the 9/15 poll among registered voters, Clinton +4.0. The shift in voter enthusiasm gave Clinton a two-point bump among likely voters after the debate, and a three-point lead.
CNN National - 9/28-10/2	Among registered voters, Clinton led 45-41, almost the same as the previous poll, 44-41. But Trump led among likely voters by two in the first poll, but trailed by five in the second, a seven-point shift! This shift came almost entirely from voter enthusiasm of Democrats increasing and Republicans decreasing.

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[SoFloFreeper]

I think the opposite. I think Pence is a good man at heart, but he caved totally on religious protection. He will be hammered for that by the moderator and that will make him look bad to both the right and the left.

Caveat to what I just said: God can change hearts and minds. And Mr. Pence can have a good answer for what he did...this may be a redeemable moment (politically speaking).

Any gaffe by Kaine will be ignored by the media. Seriously. Kaine could say he wanted to send a drone strike to kill Julian Assange and the media would basically ignore it.

[Jamestown1630]

And Kaine is going to look like a lightweight next to him.

[CMailBag]

I think he looks like a ‘Creepy Clown’

[AndyTheBear]

What I don't understand is why polls give Hillary 80+% support among Democrats....

I work surrounded by Democrats and they bash Trump all the time, but will not defend nor standup for Hillary--but will say they don't like her either. Guess it could be that II bring up some very indefensible things about her, that one can't defend no matter what one's ideology....so maybe my challenges are skewing the results.

So my guarded suspicion is that sure maybe 80+% of Democrats who vote may go for Hillary, but there will just be a very low turn out for Democrats, way lower than previous years. The threshold of enthusiasm to vote is no doubt lower than the threshold to go to a rally, but there has got to be a real carryover when the contrast of rally attendance is so pronounced.

[Captainpaintball]

Wishful thinking. They are going to bombard Pence with topics and one-liners in this "debate" in order to keep the Trump campaign from gaining any traction.

It will be "gaygaygaygaygaygaygaygaygaygaygaygaygaygaygaygay" all night to scare cowardly fence sitters from supporting an...omigosh...I can't believe I'm going to say this word...Christian.

[proudpapa]

I get that creepy clown vibe everytime I see Bill Clinton posing as a distinguished elder statesman.

[fortheDeclaration]

Yes, those are GOPer’s who don’t want to vote for Trump in the first place.

[inchworm]

And kaine who wants us all to know he was a missionary cant stop interrupting, is rude and mischaracterizing. Where did this man get his Sunday schooling from?

[Salamander]

It’s a Blue Star Family flag.

His son is a Marine.

The apple fell *far* from that tree, apparently.

[af_vet_1981]

Pence is doing fine, against both the moderator and Kaine.

[SecondAmendment]

Tonight’s is, but I have seen him wear the stylized “H” pin before

[Salamander]

I wouldn’t be shocked to see him flying ChiCom colors, frankly.

[steve86]

“Where did this man get his Sunday schooling from?”

The Jesuits. Isn’t that obvious? I’m guessing the pope really likes that guy.

[steve86]

If he once more says “I have great respect for Senator Kaine” I’m literally going to throw up. WAY too deferential to the creepy clown.

[kabar]

Fantastic performance by Pence. Kaine was beat on the issues as well as on manners.

[ripnbang]

Keep it in perspective...it’s like the saying, “Bless your Heart”...

[kabar]

Pence put the knife into Kaine’s stomach with a smile. Kaine’s behavior was over the top. He was out of control. Pence let him hang himself.

[af_vet_1981]

Not really; Pence needs to be very likeable to help Trump.

[Bravada]

“I think Kaine looks like a creepy clown.”

Yes, you are right. Only difference is that he doesn’t need a mask.

[goldstategop]

Idiot Republicans want to throw away the Supreme Court and getting rid of Obamacare because Trump isn’t perfect enough for them.

If they don’t vote for him, they should shut up about Hillary.
They’ve lost their right to complain.

We can’t afford her. Hopefully, tonight’s debate made that clear.