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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 1, 2023 [STALLED!]
Institute for the Study of War ^ | April 1, 2023 | Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 04/02/2023 7:14:53 AM PDT by Timber Rattler

Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed on April 1 that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast administrative borders by March 31. Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces launched their winter offensive operation in early February along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna-Lyman line and on select frontlines in western Donetsk Oblast. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) observed that Gerasimov has failed to extend Russian control over Donbas during his appointment as the theater commander in Ukraine and has achieved only marginal gains by expending mobilized personnel. Ukrainian intelligence representative Andriy Yusov stated that Gerasimov missed the Kremlin’s deadline to capture Donbas by March 31.

(snip)

Khodakovsky noted that failures during the offensive cause manpower losses and spark negative sentiments among the personnel, and argued that unnamed actors may be attempting to continue the offensive for personal reasons rather than taking a rational approach to the issue. Khodakovsky’s comment likely implies that Gerasimov is pursuing personal interest in sustaining the offensive in order to retain favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Khodakovsky’s recent appointment on March 30 as regional Rosgvardia deputy head and the return of Surovikin (at least by proxy) to the information space may indicate that Gerasimov’s unsuccessful theater-wide offensive may already be costing him favor with Putin.

(Excerpt) Read more at understandingwar.org ...


TOPICS: Government; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: 000asplanned; 00putingeniuslol; aprilfools; frederickwkagan; globalistpropaganda; instituteforwargrift; isw; katerynastepanenko; nato; neoconcentral; nicolewolkov; putin; putinfansragebelow; rileybailey; russia; snek; snekbot; thesnekbot; ukraine; victorianuland; victorianulandhomies; victorianulandscrowd; war; woodytheneocon; woodythezeeper; yourenemy; zelensky
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It seems that the great Russian "winter offensive" we were all promised is all played out...they can't close the circle around Bakhmut.

Meanwhile...

Imagery Shows How a Cemetery for Russian Mercenaries Is Expanding

So I guess it wasn't "over" after all.

1 posted on 04/02/2023 7:14:53 AM PDT by Timber Rattler
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To: Timber Rattler

Idiot bots posting idiotic lies.


2 posted on 04/02/2023 7:16:11 AM PDT by wildcard_redneck (Biden will mess up the Ukraine worse than Afghanistan.)
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To: Timber Rattler

Where have all the flowers gone? Young girls have picked them everyone. When will they ever learn, WHEN WILL We EVERY LEARN!
From an old song, soon to be popular again.


3 posted on 04/02/2023 7:19:08 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade ( Ride to the sound of the Guns!)
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To: Timber Rattler

Confirmation the Obama State Dept was behind the Maidan Uprising in Ukraine


4 posted on 04/02/2023 7:19:27 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (The worst thing about censorship is ████ █ ██████ ███████ ███ ██████ ██ ████████. FJB.)
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To: Timber Rattler

ISW = Neocon Central


5 posted on 04/02/2023 7:32:57 AM PDT by JonPreston
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To: wildcard_redneck

“Idiot bots posting idiotic lies.”

How can you lie like that? It’s CLEAR that the Russian offensive is stalled to say the least. That’s just a fact. That doesn’t mean the Russians will lose - not at all. But it sure as hell ain’t no lie to say the offensive has stalled.


6 posted on 04/02/2023 7:33:08 AM PDT by vladimir998 ( Apparently I'm still living in your head rent free. At least now it isn't empty.)
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To: JonPreston
But Comrade Jon, you said that it was "over."

What happened?

7 posted on 04/02/2023 7:35:03 AM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To hold a pen is to be at war." --Voltaire)
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To: vladimir998

Ukes on FR should STFU.


8 posted on 04/02/2023 7:35:28 AM PDT by wildcard_redneck (Biden will mess up the Ukraine worse than Afghanistan.)
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To: Timber Rattler

They just took central Bakhmut


9 posted on 04/02/2023 7:42:27 AM PDT by struggle
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To: Timber Rattler

The UA was defeated months ago. Now it’s time to reduce NATO to ash


10 posted on 04/02/2023 7:53:39 AM PDT by JonPreston
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To: JonPreston
Now it’s time to reduce NATO to ash

Does that include the U.S.?

11 posted on 04/02/2023 7:55:54 AM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To hold a pen is to be at war." --Voltaire)
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To: Timber Rattler
The Ukes took back Crimea and are marching on Moscow now.
12 posted on 04/02/2023 7:59:33 AM PDT by McGruff (Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f*** things up - Barack Obama)
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To: wildcard_redneck

Seems to me the ISW assessment is closer to current realities on the ground than not.

The Pro-Putin media has stated that the “gloves were going to come off” this winter with 300-500K trained and ready Russian soldiers preparing to overrun the Ukrainians. That simply has not happened. Seems to my there was lying going on.

Also I remember reading from Pro-Putin media just last week that Bahkmut was surronded, and 10K Ukes were trapped. That simply is not the case. Seems to me there is lying going on.


13 posted on 04/02/2023 8:02:37 AM PDT by dominusobiscum (A Christians true heart can berevealed by how they treat others anonymously on discussion forums.)
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To: Timber Rattler

Americans wouldn’t be stupid enough to die in Ukraine. Leave that for the Polish.


14 posted on 04/02/2023 8:11:28 AM PDT by JonPreston
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To: Timber Rattler

Time for peace.


15 posted on 04/02/2023 8:33:43 AM PDT by FlyingEagle
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To: Timber Rattler

…and every day the Russians gain more ground, and you lose more.
Every one is now dumber for having read this tripe.Congratulations 🤡🤡🤡


16 posted on 04/02/2023 8:37:51 AM PDT by MotorCityBuck (Keep the change, you filthy animal! )
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To: JonPreston; wildcard_redneck; struggle; McGruff; MotorCityBuck

The Institute for Grifting On War


17 posted on 04/02/2023 9:01:45 AM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: kiryandil

You all know that Timber rattler - Marcusmaximus - URevaol.com - etc. , are all the same person / bot posting what they are paid to do. This constant posting on FR is machine driven and timed to connect with the Global News Networks.


18 posted on 04/02/2023 9:09:42 AM PDT by EC Washington
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To: struggle

Ukraine will take it all back with the new super tanks and new rockets. Russians have run out of tanks, convicts and men. By May 1st, all that is lost will be in Ukraine hands as Russians pull back to defend Crimea—that will fall by June. If Ukraine can’t do it the Polish Army and USMC can! All Ukraine will be free! Putin killed and Russia forced to pay reparations in the hundreds of Billions. Next the US will occupy Ukraine to ensure her freedom and Zelenskyy can be made President-for-life. Crimea will be the Las Vegas of the Black Sea!


19 posted on 04/02/2023 9:14:59 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade ( Ride to the sound of the Guns!)
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To: Timber Rattler

With all your propaganda one might think this Russia thing was over months ago. You’ve blown any credibility a long time ago.

Supporting child molesters and democrap money laundering is all you liberals do.


20 posted on 04/02/2023 9:15:18 AM PDT by CodeToad (No Arm up! They have!)
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