Posted on 02/15/2007 9:53:50 PM PST by grey_whiskers
In my prior article, (Vanity) As the World Turns, or The Wild, Wild East I considered the possibility that changing demographics, upheavals in culture, and changing markets may bring the centuries-old preeminence of the Western World to an end. Three main heirs-apparent were mentioned: a renewed Islamic Caliphate, China, and India. I considered some of the weaknesses of the West and some of the cultural strengths of the others. In this and the following pieces, I wish to consider the potential Achilles’ heels for the rivals. I begin with Islam, with a detour into US politics and recent history.
As remarked earlier, the strength of Islam is exactly that: Islam. By analogy to the United States, which has been united across a diverse set of cultures and locations through a set of common political beliefs, Islam is united—across many racial and national boundaries—by common theological beliefs. In addition, the beliefs are such that they can be readily communicated and grasped without a great deal of formal education. In addition, the Muslim world is considerably younger (and more fecund) than the West. Finally, much of the Muslim World is centered around some of the largest oil reserves on Earth—convenient for economic power and/or blackmail against industrialized powers. However, each of these strengths contains a seed of weakness which may retard the establishment of sharia law worldwide.
First, consider the shared creed. Is the Muslim world really as unified as typically portrayed? Look at the violence in Iraq, aided and abetted by Islamic forces in Iran. Surely that is an example of Muslim unification? Not necessarily, upon closer inspection. Recall that a major battle fought by US forces in the last couple of weeks was actually against a splinter sect (Messianic isn’t quite the word to use of Muslims, but perhaps apocalyptic would do) who were setting out to slaughter a number of traveling pilgrims of a different Muslim persuasion. Or, for that matter, note that a great deal of the violence in Iraq is Sunni-Shia rivalry, echoing the see-saw of Catholic and Protestant power within Europe hundreds of years ago. (For an example of how extreme this is, consider the recent bootlegged video of the execution of Saddam Hussein. Here we have a world-class mass murderer and dictator. Not quite in the league of Mao, Stalin, Hitler, or Pol Pot, but certainly up there. During his execution (a first) a bootleg recording is made, and on it, the dictator and the executioners and witnesses get into a religious quarrel. Wouldn’t you think in Iraq’s case, crimes against humanity would take precedence over squabbles?)
Consider now the youth and demographic quotient of Islam. The problem here is twofold—one economic and the other societal. The economic problem is that with all of the young Mohammeds being born, where are they going to find employment? Recall that much of the Muslim World would be living in pretty abject poverty if not for the flood of petrodollars coming from the hands of infidels. And history has shown us that large masses of single, bored, repressed young men is not a recipe for any kind of stability. If the leaders of the Islamic world cannot find a way to channel the energies of all these youngsters into something, this may cause problems. (Yes, I realize “Death to the Great Satan” is still pretty appealing, but it doesn’t put food on the table. And if Islam unleashes its youth on the rest of the world with a view to conquest, the result will probably not be a clean victory, but instead something more like the Mad Max movies, with integrated civilization as a whole sputtering to a halt, with memories of finer things.)
Finally, there is oil—black gold. Some have considered the idea that petroleum is a perfect weapon to use against the developed and decadent infidels. I can think of two reasons why this is not necessarily true. First, it seems clear that the current crop of leaders in Saudi Arabia and other places, is very used to the level of luxury and comfort afforded by selling the oil. Unless there is a theocratic revolt, they will be very unwilling to renounce the profits. But there is another possibility as well. With all of the hindrances placed by the US Democratic Party on drilling for oil in ANWR, or off of the coasts of Florida, or many other places, in addition to the unilateral energy disarmament of the US by restrictions on coal and on CO2 emissions, the net effect is that many of the traditional sources of fossil fuels outside fo the US are disproportionately losing their supply of *cheap* fuel. Over the long term, this may have the economic effect of the “rope-a-dope” by the US, where we denude the resources of our rivals, and end up being the only player in town at the end of the day.
In summary, one hopes that Islam will not be a major threat to the US for the foreseeable future in a demographic or economic sense—always with the caveat that if Muslim fundamentalists gain access to fission or thermonuclear weapons, all bets are off. If Islam does supplant Western liberal democracy, it may be it will do so not by moving ahead, but by reducing much of the world to the Dark Ages once again. Back to the Future? Or Forward to the Past?
(As an aside, maybe it should be emphasized that *that* is what the United States has to fear most by the Islamization of Europe. One can only hope that the ex-Christian powers have the foresight to disable or destroy any nuclear-weapons related technology or artifacts, during the slow decline of their civilization, before the point of no return is reached.)
In my next piece, I will take a look at China. Keep in mind the Chinese calendar.
...more coming in a couple of days (if I have time).
Cheers!
Look for it tomorrown morning (Sunday), Arizona time ...
Cheers!
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