Oil Won’t Last Forever – What happens when it runs out?

Oilprice.com ^ | 08/01/2010 | Claude Salhani

[Faketan]

One nagging question that the industrial world has been asking itself since the discovery of the first oil well is what happens when the wells begin to run dry. The answer is relatively simple to imagine. We had a dry run, so to speak, when Dubai’s economy tanked a few years ago. And although the causes of Dubai’s ills and ails were financial and not oil related, the drama which unfolded gave us a watered-down version of what might transpire if and when the oil wells stop producing.

But before we run the Armageddon tape that the world will stop functioning because of lack of oil, let’s all take a deep breath and think again. The oil companies, the people who manufacture cars and airplanes and legions of scientists and inventors have all been planning for that day. And as far-fetched as it might seem to some of us, that day will undoubtedly come, very probably within our lifetime.

So what is likely to happen? First, the car manufacturers and people who build commercial aircrafts, the two largest consumers of fossil fuels have no doubt plans on what their next generation models will look like and what they will run on. Already some car manufacturers are producing hybrid cars that run partially on electricity. What will transpire will be a massive turn to nuclear energy. It may not be the safest of energies, however nuclear energy remains the cleanest. Or perhaps solar and wind.

So your average American will still be able to drive to the drive-thru bank and restaurant. The above average Chinese will still be able to afford his car and the average European will still be able to enjoy Sunday outings with Grandma sitting in the back seat between the bambinos.

What will change – and drastically so – will be the social-economic face of much of the oil producing countries as well as other nations, where overnight tens of thousands of workers will find themselves suddenly unemployed, broke, and with practically no prospects for any future whatsoever. And herewith lies the danger of a social eruption of near Biblical proportions. Think if you will of the ripple effect that would occur if one of the major oil producers stopped producing.

Take the United Arab Emirates (UAE) one of the major oil-producing states in the Gulf where the local population is outnumbered five-to one. Out of a population of some 4.8 million less than 20 % are nationals of the country; and even among the nationals, a good percentage very probably hail from other neighboring countries, such as Palestine, Lebanon or other countries in the region. The bulk of the population -- a whopping 50 percent -- are from the Indian sub-continent; from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Balouchistan or from Iran and Afghanistan.

The same holds true in the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council states; Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman.

Rest of article at: Full article at: Oil Wells Run Dry

[narses]

The Fischer–Tropsch process is being used now to gassify coal. We have LOTS of coal.

[GonzoGOP]

But whale oil never did run out, and neither will our current petroleum supply.

No but between 1860 - 1880 whales got scarce enough that it became cheaper to refine the black goop they found in Pennsylvania then send ship all over the world to find whales. The substitutes already exist, see my post on TDP, so if/when supplies run down the substitutes will kick in. you can't run out of something you can grow, reuse and make from garbage.

[Faketan]

don’t get me wrong - i’m not one of these peak oil conspiracy theorists - but eventually supplies will run low - that’s when interesting things will start to happen - by interesting i mean sh*t hit the fan.

[GonzoGOP]

We have LOTS of coal.

Lots, even in all caps, doesn't even begin to describe the reserves in just the US. And if you convert it to oil you can use all the low quality Midwest coal that isn't as good in power plants. Most of that stuff isn't even being mined any more.

Still cheaper to drill for oil and lots still to be drilled. But even when that runs down (note I don't say out) we will just switch to something else.

Stupid history fact. The main cause of the industrial revolution was the exhausting of timber reserves. The supplies became so short that the Royal Navy posted armed guards around stands of Oak to protect their shipbuilding materials. So they developed substitutes, Coal for heating, Iron for building, the they developed the coke so as to be able to use charcoal in the steel making process and completely removed their reliance on timber.

When coal and Iron ran short in WWII we developed substitutes. Industry switched from coal to oil power and much of what was made from iron ans steel started to be made from plastic.

Resource shortages are not new. Conservatives and isnsutrialists use technology and science to find substitutes, adapt and overcome. Its the panic struck libs and greens who want to go back into the caves.

[narses]

:)

[GonzoGOP]

Basically the answer to oil problems is gas for the USA.

Not to mention how much natural gas is sitting on the ocean floor in the form of methane hydrate. This stuff is more or less pure natural gas sitting in a layer half a kilometer thick covering a good chunk of the ocean floor. Too expensive to bring it up currently, but there are 2500 gigatonnes of the crap down there. That is 10 times more than the estimate of the reserves of conventional methane. In fact the estimeat of all other fossil fuels combined is only 5000 gigatonnes. Thats Coal Oil and regular run of the mill natural gas.

We are not going to run out any time soon.

[dangus]

No-one. But a stable population can also exhaust a non-renewable resource. But we are certainly able to technologically progress before we exhaust carbon fuels.

[GonzoGOP]

But a stable population can also exhaust a non-renewable resource.

So make it renewable. Here is a brain buster weird thing I read about. The thermal depolymerization process works particularly well on stuff like rubber, paper, plastic, and organic waste. Get your hands on a good supply of that and you can actually turn a profit. So how much of that sort of stuff is currently sitting at the bottom of landfills? Given an increase in oil prices either due to resource depletion, or much more likely political instability, we might be able to make money mining garbage.

Oh and don't get me started on the amount of pre processed organic matter we flush away (literally) every day. Unless the whole world gets real constipated that is a renewable resource.

[SaraJohnson]

I agree with you. The guy who wrote this projection of the future is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

[Faketan]

I disagree -it’s not saying Oil will run out overnight - it’s merely stating what will hapen to regions / local economies and the political impact it will have.

[GonzoGOP]

it’s merely stating what will hapen to regions / local economies and the political impact it will have.

I was just reading up on the Fischer–Tropsch that narses mentioned. One of the feed stocks for the process is CO2 and Water. Now you have to put a lot of energy into it for the oil you get out. So not worth the doing when geologic oil (as differentiated from manufactured oil) is plentiful and cheap. But if supplies run low, even at a local level it allows you to change stationary power sources (Nuclear, solar, tidal, space based solar) into a portable fuel source. Since there is no way to run out of CO2 when you are burning oil it is quite literally and physically impossible to run out. They cost will go up (due to the energy needed to transform the CO2 into CO and then into Oil) but you can never run out.

So the answer to the article's question of what to do when you run out of oil is that it is physically, chemically and logically impossible to do so long as other forms of energy exist. You can only drive up the cost.

[TigersEye]

It won’t happen for hundreds and hundreds of years though.

[TigersEye]

What would you want to bet that those estimates for methane hydrates are as limited by today’s technology and extent of exploration as the early 20th century estimates of petroleum reserves?

[narses]

:)

[Kevmo]

Oil Won’t Last Forever – What happens when it runs out?
***Cold Fusion. I just made money on it this week over at Intrade.

https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/2239.page

[GonzoGOP]

What would you want to bet that those estimates for methane hydrates are as limited by today’s technology and extent of exploration as the early 20th century estimates of petroleum reserves?

Actually those are very rough estimates. I found three widely divergent and picked the middle one to be safe. It is just that in any deep ocean water along a continental shelf they find this stuff. And in some places it can be up to half a kilometer thick.

The problem is that the deepest parts of the ocean are virtually unknown. Twelve men have walked on the moon, two have gone to the bottom of the Mariana Trench. And while the astronauts went out for a walk and picked up some rocks, for obvious reasons the hydro naughts never left their ship.

Unfortunately the water pressure needed to form the methane hydrate (greater than 300 m) will crush all but a few research subs.

Oh and did i mention it can also be formed in shallow water if the water temperature is very cold. The Arctic and Antarctic should have large reserves tied up in the permafrost, but since it is expensive to recover and gas is currently plentiful nobody has bothered looking yet. The USGS estimate 400 gigatonnes in the Arctic (total known conventional natural gas supply is estimated at 230 Gt) but they don't even have enough data to make an estimate of the Antarctic.

[MaxMax]

Just when we think man knows it all, we get kicked in the groin.

[Lancey Howard]

What happens when it runs out?

Then we put windmills on our cars duh.

[kcvl]

We have more oil in this country than any of us can ever use. The problem is the environmental wack-jobs won't allow us to drill for it!

You have to jump through so many hoops just to be allowed to drill on property you own it is sickening! And the hoops are for no good reason just more bs to keep the wackos happy.

Then, you are taxed to the hilt if you happen to find oil and decide to produce it!

We aren't anywhere near close to running out of oil. I just wish we would run out of lunatic wack-jobs so the rest of us could live happily ever after in peace and prosperity!

[TigersEye]

Amazing! I think scientists are going to have to come to the conclusion that planets are hydrocarbon factories. It’s what they do.