Global Cooling Coming? Archibald uses solar and surface data to predict 4.9°C fall (!)

David Archibald, polymath, makes a bold prediction that temperatures are about to dive sharply (in the decadal sense). He took the forgotten correlation that as solar cycles lengthen and weaken, the world gets cooler. He refined it into a predictive tool, tested it and published in 2007. His paper has been expanded on recently by Prof Solheim in Norway, who predicts a 1.5°C drop in Central Norway over the next ten years.

Our knowledge of they solar dynamo is improving, and David adds the predicted solar activity ’til 2040 to the analysis. Normal solar cycles are 11 years long, but the current one (cycle 24) is shaping up to be 17 years (unusually long), and using historical data from the US, David predicts a 2.1°C decline over Solar Cycle 24 followed by a further 2.8°C over Solar Cycle 25. That adds up to a whopping 4.9°C fall in temperate latitudes over the next 20 years. We can only hope he’s wrong. As David says ” The center of the Corn Belt, now in Iowa, will move south to Kansas.”

He also predicts continuing drought in Africa for another 14 years, with droughts likely in South America too.

If he’s right, it’s awful and excellent at the same time. Cold hurts, but wouldn’t it be something if we understood our climate well enough to plan ahead?

See his post below for all the details…

- Jo

"So, if I have this right (and I usually don’t) a day that would be 85 degrees would now be 77? WHERE DO I SIGN UP FOR THAT!!!

Don't bother to sign up. Just move up here. Of course, it's supposed to be around -20 F tonight and tomorrow night, but that shouldn't be a problem. Summers are usually in the 70's.

Got sidetracked when I saw the Newsweek cover and posted this thread...:

New Emails Reveal Fraud of Climate Science ( This is from NEWSWEEK...)

The article contains Sen Boxer's propaganda that all the Climate Scientist that are skeptics are well funded by Companies like Exxon Mobile...

Just move up here

Y'know, red, if I had it all to do over again, Alaska would probably have been an outstanding choice.

I've long said, people are made out of meat, and meat should be kept refrigerated. 80 degrees plus, that's just not healthy.

The article title speaks of a 4.7 degree C drop in temperature in the next decades. That is close to 7 degrees F. The drop during the Maunder Minimum, “Little Ice Age” was nowhere near that severe. Here is a world map showing temperatures during the MM. You will see that the cold areas of North America and Europe were .7 degrees C and perhaps slightly more. This is around 1.5 degrees F.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=7122

Don’t believe this alarmist fertilizer. The only way we are going to have that huge a drop is with a major volcano like Tambora or Toba, or a giant meteor strike.

"I guess Alaska is getting the cold, because here in the Middle Atlantic states, the winter has been unusually mild."

It has been what the weather service calls "Bitterly cold" for the last month or so. Supposed to be down around -20 F here in Wasilla again tonight.

People always want it to be cooler. They never stop to think that us poor guys up here where it's ALWAYS cooler would love to have a little gorbal warming. So, just say, for instance, "Well, send that global warming to Alaska, where it will be appreciated!"

The good part is people are wising up. The bad part is, so many poor studies are surfacing as the answer.

I tend to believe we are in our last warm year until about 11 years from now, when the next peak is expected. We will seen some nasty weather starting with a severe tornado season this year. I observe that they come in pairs when the earth is cooling; 1970 data.

The thinning of the herd has begun and we will see unbelievable things. Cooder winters, longer winters, shorter summers, ruined crops both in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere.

Florida is already hurting for water and if tropical storms are bounced off our shores and headed to England, Europe will lose a lot of crops and farm animals.

The dream of the environmentalists will be realized as farmers posts their bodies to the fence post.

We will seen some nasty weather starting with a severe tornado season this year.

Global cooling is a partial explanation. A more complete explanation is La Nina. It's the main thing factor the 2011 and 1974 outbreaks have in common. The forecast for this year is dicey:

The forecast rapid rise from a strong La Nina to neutral is the worst case scenario for tornadoes as it will create a very strong jet over the US during the spring.

I have been watching the trend for close to 60 years. At age 15 my family moved from a NJ town 2 miles from the George Washington Bridge, to a semi-rural vacation community about 25 miles in the hills towards the NY/PA border. I became interested in the weather difference and started keeping a record of the daily high/low temperatures for my old WOR radio station, and temperatures I took out in the hills about 700 feet above sea level.

I discovered that the water around NY City kept the city warmer early in the winter, but cooler in the early spring. Also, not counting the water influence, it was about 10 degrees cooler out in the country. Start of a lifelong interest in natural phenomena. Actually, not the start: my father used to drive us to see hurricane damage, floods, and drought effects on reservoirs and waterfalls with accompanied lectures.

I don’t know if people always want it cooler. When I was living in Iowa from 1957 to 1960, my first winter there was a solid week of 25 to 27 below night temperatures and it never got above 21 f below. My first summer there is a solid week of 105 to 107 daytime temps. and it never got below 93 at night. This was pre air conditioning. When my new husband wanted to move back to Iowa from the East Coast because he had a guaranteed job there, I told him in no uncertain terms that our marriage would not survive Iowa weather. We stayed and he finally found his life’s career and we were married 44 years.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.