Posted on 11/01/2012 12:10:36 PM PDT by vonkayel
Ok...I'm a recovering pessimist. I actually think Romney's going to win this thing, and possibly win it by a larger margin than most pollsters and pundits are predicting. The national election seems to have stabilized into a 50-47 pattern that is unlikely to change barring some major news event or scandal over the weekend.
But I still have a little bit of Eeyore in me, and there are three things that worry me:
1. Nate Silver This whiny turd with his hyperconfident "78.9 chance Obama wins" line is the biggest burr in my saddle. Unlike many, I'm not that impressed with his 2008 predictions. I think he was fed internal data by the O campaign. What I don't understand is why he would risk his entire professional reputation on such seemingly outlanding claims in 2012. Bizzarre.
2. Ohio I keep expecting the Ohio polls to break massively toward Romney, but it hasn't happened. I understand that there are flaws in the methodology and sampling, but it still makes me nervous.
3. Intrade This is probably the most ridiculous of my worries. Intrade has been notoriously wrong in the past (see: Supreme Court to Overturn Obamacare = 95%). Still, the fact that there has been practialy no erosion in the Obama futures bothers me.
All things considered, I would MUCH rather be in our shoes than the Democrats. But, for the sake of the unreformed Eeyores lurking on FR, could someone please demolish these three nagging concerns?
Rove was right in 2008.
Nate Silver, like all other Joun-O-Listers, will do whatever he has to do, and sacrifice whatever credibility he must, because he is in a dying industry.
Newsweek was the tip of the iceberg. Starting next year you are going to see dead tree news organizations laying-off and dropping like flies. Unless, that is, they get some form of government bailout, law forcing you to pay for web news content, or some other government prop under their sagging finances.
Hence they are totally in the tank for Barry. Without Hope and Change 2.0 there is no tomorrow for them.
The best way to allay concerns is to get out and volunteer for the campaign.
Even if Freepers aren’t in a ‘swing state,’ they can sign up to make calls from their cell phones to GOP voters in swing states:
http://www.mittromney.com/call-home-landing
2. Polls are breaking in OH for Romney: last three were tie, R+2, R+2.
3. Intrade had the USSC overturning Obamacare at a 90:10 ratio.
#2 is real. I am on the ground in Warren county, and I am telling you there is nowhere near the voter enthusiasm for the GOP there was in 2004 and 2008. Those who say unprecedented enthusiasm is everywhere are smoking crack. Average joes are not impressed with either of these guys. And Ryan does not have anywhere the reach and charisma of Palin to get to the working class voter.
Now there is also nowhere near the enthusiasm for Obama either, and GOP voters are more habitual voters, Romney might be OK.
But polls are polls, and the lesson is that they are not often wrong. Sometimes yes, but not often. And the polls are telling us that Romney will underperform the national average in OH.
So prepare yourself for four more years of Obama, a solidly GOP house and a split almost down the middle senate.
all polls but Rasmussen say Obama wins OH.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
Nine out of ten people called by pollsters are refusing to respond.
Among the ten percent who do respond to pollster questions, Romney is now leading slightly, and comfortably enough not to worry about the vote fraud overcoming his lead.
Among the ninety percent who refuse to respond to pollster questions, 97.53% of them are tack-spitting outraged at Obama, Pelosi, Reid, the MSM, and every mind-numbingly stupid person who ever voted for any of this idiocy, such that the election day results will be a coast-to-coast Republican sweep that will dwarf 2010 and 1994.
Romney is going to win by twenty gazillion in the popular vote, and will take 117% of the electoral vote.
The GOP almost NEVER underperforms the national polls in Ohio. There’s more than one poll that has Mitt leading Ohio.
That for me endedhe argument. Barone is the Platinum standard. If you know anything about what he does for the year before an election... then you know that he is more on top of elections than any other man alive... end of story.
LLS
joe scarhead and silver had an agreement that there would be no actual bet. It was an mslsd diversion only.
LLS
Colorado used to be one of those states where the GOP always overperformed the national average. Things change sometimes.
Or we could ask ourselves if there is something about Romney that is causing him to not connect to your typical OH voter. I’ll leave that as an exercise, but I have my thoughts.
Or you can cling to hope and say that every poll but Rasmussen is wrong. And yes Rasmussen is the only poll I’m aware of with Romney leading.
Bingo! I am very confident that we will be popping corks Tuesday night, but vote fraud is my only concern. We are dealing with a godless group who worship at the altar of infanticide and perversion. We must be prayerful and vigilant until victory is complete!
A poll came out today with Romney up. Several polls have Mitt tied. I don’t think Mitt is out of it in Ohio. In the end it’s all about turnout of course.
This is *exactly* what I was looking for.
Thank you.
I just know somebody is going to start an Optimist’s Club!
And look where they are finishing up their campaigns:
Romney is going to New Hampshire, one of his four home states.
Obama is going to Iowa, where he kicked off his presidential run back in 2007.
R's is an act of confidence and O's is a concession of defeat, I think.
By today's standards, JFK would be considered an off the chart super right wing extremist hawk.
The liberal axis of Media,Politicians, and Communist citizens, are quick to label members of the Tea Party as “extremists”, thus tipping the median toward the left.
Where in fact, Tea Party members simply believe in the Constitution, the law of the land if you will.
They are law abiding normal people, not by any measure being extreme.
Now to the elephant. Only 60% of eligible voters cast a vote.
What are the other 40% waiting for?
The 40% have not been presented with a true conservative to vote for.
They have been waiting for someone who meets their criteria. Someone who is squeaky clean. Someone they can trust will always do the right thing. Someone they can trust will do what he says.
When that person enters the arena, the 40% elephant will enter with him.
That man has to be honed over the years. That man is recognizing that the pundits are wrong, migrating to the middle to capture votes results in little difference from your opponent, when there is no true difference then the 40% won't bother to cast a vote. That man is now starting to realize that being conservative is not only a good thing for one’s self and others, but is a winning strategy.
That man is Mitt Romeny. This will be a landslide of historic precedence.
Where is it?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
Rasmussen?
RCP did not use it. The poll is posted at FR. Romney 3.5 lead with D+5.
Obama’s departure from Orlando before the storm hit was also strange. He could easily have gone to the scheduled rally at the University of Central Florida and then flown to Washington and toured the storm’s aftermath. Instead, Obama — and I am not making this up — delivered pizzas to staff and volunteers at a campaign phone bank, called on Bill Clinton as his substitute at the rally, and flew back to Washington. When a rally at a college campus becomes an unattractive venue for Obama, the fun has surely gone out of his campaign experience.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.