Posted on 05/04/2006 8:27:36 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Although Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) does not currently attract more than 50% support when matched up with her Republican opponents, she is maintaining strong but slightly narrower leads over them.
Sebelius now leads former state House Speaker Robin Jennison 50% to 33%, a two-point shaving of the gap between them.
The governor leads State Senator Jim Barnett 49% to 37%. Last month, Sebelius led Barnett 50% to 37%.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
It's interesting that 68% of the respondants expressed approval of Kathleen Sebelius, but 50% support her. Furthermore, more than one third of the voters express no opinion of the Republican candidates. So if either of them can get some name I.D., this race has the potential to be competitive.
What I'm not clear on was whether Sebelius's being fined for campaign finance violations, albeit low-level violations, had gotten much press in Kansas.
There is one last thing to consider. Senator Sam Brownback will not seek reelection in 2010, and if Selebius wins reelection by a wide margin, this gives Democrats an obvious opportunity to elect a liberal Senator that year.
Has Brownback clearly stated he won't seek re-election in 2010?
Kansas doesn't elect democrats to statewide federal office.
That is what the GOP in Virginia said. Explain North and South Dakota, once had four RAT Senators (now 3)?
Kansas last elected, more like appointed a democrat to office about a century ago. Most of those states had democrats off and on last century.
The last Democrat (and only popularly elected one) to win a Senate seat in Kansas was George McGill. When a special election was called in 1930 to fill the remaining 2 years of Vice-President Charles Curtis's Senate term, McGill prevailed. He went on to win the full 6-year term in 1932. He lost in the anti-FDR backlash in 1938 to Republican Clyde Reed and attempted 3 more times for a comeback, but was unsuccessful. The closest Senate contest since was in 1974 when freshman Sen. Bob Dole (suffering from the effects of Watergate) was trailing liberal Rep. Bill Roy, an abortionist, but after an aggressive series of tv ads, Dole narrowly prevailed to hold his Senate seat and never had a close race after. Dr. Roy challenged Nancy Kassebaum for the open seat in 1978, but she obliterated him.
Don't 1996. When Dole decided to resign from the Senate to generate media attention for his Presidential run, the RATS bragged about picking his seat up. But the Graves appointee lost the primary and won the general election. KS seems to be adverse to RATS on the federal level.
Now if we could just get rid of Denny Moore.
Yes, he made that statement a few months ago.
Your knowlege of electoral history is impressive. But should Selebius win reelection (especially if by a wide margin), she will inevitably be pressured by her party to seek election to the U.S. Senate when Sam Brownback steps down. And she is not a party maverick.
Normally, a sitting Governor is the strongest candidate one find in a race for the U.S. Senate, sometimes even stronger than an incumbent Senator.
So this election is far more important than it initially appears to be (like Ted Strickland's election to Congress in 1992). Conservatives should make it a bigger priority than it currently is.
Is Brownback going for a President or bust attitude?
Brownback will be lucky to get over 10% in the 2008 primaries.
Perhaps, after the 2008 primaries he may change his mind.
Tancredo, Allard, and Kyl declined their term limit pledges.
Regardless how big Sebelius wins this year, her 2nd term will determine how viable a Senate candidate she would be in 2010. Remember, Pataki, Taft, and Sunquist won their re-election bids by comfortable margins. Are any of these RINO losers Senate material? Nope.
A lot of Dem Governors have passed on running for the Senate in KS. The presumption is now that she will be reelected despite her "issues" (another issue that ought to be played up is her packing the Courts with radical activists, including the State Supreme Court), but how the electorate will feel about her in 2010 may be a different story from today.
Assuming it's 100% true that Brownback retires, her likely opponent will be Rep. Jerry Moran (Pat Roberts' successor), who is extremely popular. Now the political landscape could lean 1 of 2 ways, and I'll make it simple. If there is a Democrat President in 2010, Sebelius will NOT win that Senate seat, period. If there is a Republican President, she'll have a better shot, but Moran's support cuts across both the regular GOP and the RINO "Moderate" liberal wing, so he will be formidable, regardless.
Sometimes supposedly popular outgoing or recently former Governors are the best candidates, but their records of moving over to the Senate are by no means a guarantee. Kit Bond & Bob Graham in 1986, Tom Carper in '00 (DE) and Evan Bayh & Voinovich in '98 (OH) were some success stories, but Jerry Brown in 1982 (CA), John Evans in '86 (ID), Mike Sullivan in 1994 (WY), Tony Knowles in '04 (AK) came up short.
Graves' appointment of Sheila Frahm was an ill-advised fiasco (she was about as liberal as the Maine twins) and Brownback's defeat of her was an enormous relief. However, with Dole at the top of the ticket, he absolutely helped eviscerate virtually all 'Rats running that year in KS (including carrying Vince Snowbarger to victory, Moore's excellent predecessor), so Frahm probably still would've won had she not been challenged.
I believe, however, that she would've been a very weak link running in '98, and a Conservative challenger would've popped up (and I wouldn't have been surprised if the 'Rats had rolled out their biggest gun, Dan Glickman, the individual for whom no other 'Rat in the state more covets a Senate seat, and wants badly to avenge George McGill) and might've resulted in a meltdown that handed the Senate seat to Glickman a la Dennis Moore.
I don't believe Brownback will get out of the single digits in the GOP Pres. primaries, except maybe in Kansas. ;-)
As always, you make good points. But there possibilities you're missing. For example, what if Jerry Moran decides he's happy where he is? Or what if Moran gets a strong primary challenge (like from Jim Ryun, for example) which turns into a mudslinging contest and leaves the GOP divided?
I don't think that Kansas conservatives should take that chance.
I can't imagine why Moran would pass up an open Senate seat situation. As for Jim Ryun, I think he may be sandbagged by the "moderates" if he tries to move up (he has also run into a problem as of late, which I won't mention, but it has had at least one news story written up on it). Todd Tiahrt, I'm sure, might also consider running, too, but Moran still seems the best bet. If it does end up a brutal primary battle, obviously Gilligan-Sebelius will benefit. Personally, I hoped that Moran had run against her for Governor, it would've instantly moved the race to toss-up.
Kansas ping
""Kansas doesn't elect democrats to statewide federal office.""
they already did
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