What is Intrade saying about the 2012 GOP race?

Intrade ^ | 030311 | Intrade

[Artemis Webb]

I was curious what Intrade was saying about the 2012 GOP race. So I've listed who they are favoring for both the presidential and VP nominations. I am not listing anybody with less than a 4% chance. In descending order:

Mitt Romney 25%
Tim Pawlenty 12.3%
Mitch Daniels 10.9%
Mike Huckabee 8.3%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Sarah Palin 5.5%
Jon Huntsman 4.3%
Michele Bachmann 4.1%

-------------------------------------

For VP:

Marco Rubio 24.9%
Mike Pence 19.9%
Chris Christie 15%
John Thune 13%
Bobby Jindal 9.8%
Sarah Palin 9%
Mike Huckabee 7.9%
Tim Pawlenty 7.5%
Scott Brown 7%
Paul Ryan 7%
Bob McDonnell 5.5%
Jim DeMint 4.5%
Mitch Daniels 4%

[pgyanke]

Who would you rather see win? Romney, Pawlenty, or Daniels?

No, no and no. Thank you.

[USSR Didnt Fall]

Its all BS, there is no liquidity in these things and very easy to manipulate.
Probably the best money spent for going after someone like Palin probably cost them a couple thousand bucks.

To say its simply traders is nonsense it is to be used like the gentleman who posted it to make it look like the most conservative and best candidates have little chance.

[USSR Didnt Fall]

Its all BS, there is no liquidity in these things and very easy to manipulate.
Probably the best money spent for going after someone like Palin probably cost them a couple thousand bucks.

To say its simply traders is nonsense it is to be used like the gentleman who posted it to make it look like the most conservative and best candidates have little chance.

[Huck]

I get it. Some people can’t handle tough, real-world choices.

[Huck]

As for the top of the ticket, I'll write in Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, or Michelle Bachmann if the RINO wing of the party chooses another McCain. That's if I don't write in John Galt and go completely Galt.

LOL. Might as well write-in Barack Obama. Same result.

[Mr. K]

"Notice to GOP: I won’t cast a vote for Romney."

ME neither

Or ANY Of the rehashed old has-beens

[GingisK]

Might as well write-in Barack Obama. Same result.

The GOP picks do not represent me, and are sure to continue with the SOS. If the GOP wants me to vote for thier candidate, it is up to them to present one that is suitable. I have grown weary of "the least of two evils" approach. If the GOP can't find a suitable candidate, then the GOP needs to dissolve.

[Pollster1]

Might as well write-in Barack Obama. Same result.

Writing in Barack Obama would achieve the same result, except for the relatively minor symbolism, and it's a better result than having Romney hold office for 4-8 years and allowing ObamaCare and the other socialist policies to stand through another administration. IRomneyCare put Romney on my "no way" list. If it's Romney or Obama in 2012, I'd rather wait until 2016 to get a conservative republican in our White House. The point is not for some historian to check off the "GOP" box. The point is to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic, to preserve freedom, and to roll back communism and socialism in America. I will not vote for someone who will not support the Constitution, and I will not vote for someone who approves of socialism.

[pgyanke]

I get it. Some people can’t handle tough, real-world choices.

No, some people can't handle the nomination process which vets candidates and gives us the opportunity to make our own choices. At this stage in the process for the 2008 election, we were told we had to get behind Guiliani or else...

The condescending, early horse trading, name-calling, bullying tactics of single-minded ideologues really aren't helpful at this stage.

[Huck]

You guys crack me up.

[Huck]

Then answer the question: If it comes down to Romney, Pawlenty, or Daniels, who would be the best of the three? I think it’s Daniels.

[pgyanke]

Then answer the question: If it comes down to Romney, Pawlenty, or Daniels, who would be the best of the three? I think it’s Daniels.

No. I am sick to death of the lesser of evils and idiotic what-if polling. I will fight tooth and nail to ensure that none of these three rise to the top. This type of MSM-fueled horse-trading is what got us in our last predicament.

[NeoCaveman]

Then answer the question: If it comes down to Romney, Pawlenty, or Daniels, who would be the best of the three? I think it’s Daniels.

An uninspiring trio, but Pawlenty annoys me the least. Romney is a liberal and Mitch has his foot in his mouth way too much the last few months.

[Huck]

So who do you want to vote for?

[pgyanke]

Again, I don’t like to get into early horse trading. However, my current favorite remains Sarah Palin. She is the most consistent and the most on-message. She also registers in all straw polls (at varying levels). She’s driving the debate and the liberals crazy... I like that in a candidate. Everyone else gets their courage to speak and talking points from her.

Case in point is the AZ shooting... EVERYONE else was silent and agreeing with the “civility” call from the Dems until Sarah came out with her very strong message. THEN, others joined her chorus. We’ll see what the future holds...

[Huck]

I don’t think Daniels worries about what Mrs. Palin thinks. His message is different.

[dforest]

I will vote for whoever runs against Obama. He is that bad.

[dforest]

Not true.

[r9etb]

Intrade is essentially an on-line betting game, and past experience indicates that the results are not trustworthy.

What we're looking at here, is the bookie's report on bets placed by a doubly self-selecting group; and of that group, the subset who use Intrade at all, and those who choose to bet on this particular race.

Fun, if you like watching people play poker, but not to be taken seriously.

[RichInOC]

Okay, that’s the “decent, dignified Republican loser who knows how to give a great concession speech” list. Where’s the list of who they’re betting on to win?