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Oh my: Romney up 7 in new VA poll
Hot Air ^ | October 12, 2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 10/12/2012 8:34:04 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

A new poll from McLaughlin & Associates, highlighted by Breitbart’s Tony Lee, provides even more supporting evidence for Suffolk University’s conclusion that there’s not much chance of Barack Obama winning the state. Mitt Romney has taken a seven-point lead and grabbed a majority, 51/44, in the survey taken on Monday and Tuesday of 600 likely voters in the state. More importantly, Romney has a double-digit lead among independents (via Drudge Report):

According to a McLaughlin & Associates poll that had an R+.02 sample, Romney leads Obama in Virginia 51%-44%.

Among independents, Romney beats Obama by 11 points, 50%-39%.

If these numbers hold for Romney, Romney could be free to expand the electoral map and more aggressively make plays for states like Michigan and Pennsylvania that were considered “reaches” just two weeks ago.

The sample in this case was almost exactly split between Republicans and Democrats, with independents overshadowing both. The D/R/I was 30.3/30.5/38.2. That, however, is a pretty far cry from 2008′s 39/33/27, or even 2009′s 33/37/30, at least in terms of the independent vote. Oversampling independents will drive Romney’s top-line numbers up higher, and while Republican enthusiasm is up nationwide, the number of federal government employees in Virginia might dampen that in the Commonwealth.

The split between Republicans and Democrats seem reasonable as an electoral model, however. It is almost evenly split between 2008 and 2009 turnout, and so gives us a pretty decent predictive model while taking the oversample of independents into consideration. But even on that score, there isn’t much solace for Team Obama in these numbers. Obama won independents in 2008 by a single point, 49/48, on his way to a six-point win in Virginia. If Romney’s leading independents by eleven — and 229 voters is a pretty decent subsample for state polling — then Obama has almost no chance of prevailing without a massive increase in Democratic enthusiasm, one that would have to far surpass anything seen in 2008.


TOPICS: Virginia; Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; obama; polls; romney; va2012; virginia
Hahahahahaha!
1 posted on 10/12/2012 8:34:07 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

25days!!


2 posted on 10/12/2012 8:37:11 AM PDT by Michigander222
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

VA has never been a Romney win since 2008, despite what the pollsters tell us.


3 posted on 10/12/2012 8:37:40 AM PDT by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I assume these are pre-veep debate numbers? I’m curious what affect last night would have on the numbers


4 posted on 10/12/2012 8:41:38 AM PDT by ObozoMustGo2012
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think I can rest easy this weekend and enjoy some football.


5 posted on 10/12/2012 8:43:16 AM PDT by goodolemr
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ouch, that’s gotta sting.


6 posted on 10/12/2012 8:44:03 AM PDT by shelterguy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
PLEASE HELP US OHIO!
7 posted on 10/12/2012 8:44:35 AM PDT by Baynative
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I'm a PA poll watcher and even though the court delayed the voted ID law there is still a fair chance that PA will go for Romney.

The judge crapped the bed when the msm turned up the heat and delayed the law for a year.

In talking with some VFW old timers, they told me that some of their demonRAT neighbors and relatives that voted obama in 08 are switching.

It's just a small sample but I think it's happening all over rural PA.

In philly and pburgh the demonRATS will never change.

8 posted on 10/12/2012 8:46:24 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
All your Czars better start looking for other jobs, Gilligan!
9 posted on 10/12/2012 8:48:52 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nice


10 posted on 10/12/2012 8:48:52 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: ObozoMustGo2012

Wow , Joined 9 25 2012 and concerned and questioning good news !

Does Axelrod trolling get any more obvious than this ?


11 posted on 10/12/2012 8:52:11 AM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The sample in this case was almost exactly split between Republicans and Democrats, with independents overshadowing both. The D/R/I was 30.3/30.5/38.2

Sorry, no. Not even close. The enthusiasm gap is off the charts with Republicans fired up, spoiling for a fight, loaded for bear and rearing to go.

12 posted on 10/12/2012 9:00:22 AM PDT by stormhill
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To: ncalburt; ObozoMustGo2012

I didn’t read his comment as a negative, ncalburt. The question is legitimate - if these are pre-VP debate polls, what did the VP debate do to them? The consensus on the VP debate outcome is that Ryan won against his two opponents.

Just my $.02, naturally.


13 posted on 10/12/2012 9:01:27 AM PDT by MortMan (Laughter is the best medicine, especially when ridiculing your enemies.)
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To: ObozoMustGo2012

“I assume these are pre-veep debate numbers? I’m curious what affect last night would have on the numbers.”


Ryan won and Biden turned off women and independents...
so VA moves more to Romney.


14 posted on 10/12/2012 9:01:45 AM PDT by RCFlyer
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To: ObozoMustGo2012

“I assume these are pre-veep debate numbers? I’m curious what affect last night would have on the numbers.”


Ryan won and Biden turned off women and independents...
so VA moves more to Romney.


15 posted on 10/12/2012 9:06:23 AM PDT by RCFlyer
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To: MortMan

Exactly what I meant. Thank you Mortman


16 posted on 10/12/2012 9:14:07 AM PDT by ObozoMustGo2012
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To: MortMan; ncalburt

Exactly what I meant. Thank you Mortman


17 posted on 10/12/2012 9:16:00 AM PDT by ObozoMustGo2012
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Also means that the eyebrow loses the race race..


18 posted on 10/12/2012 9:46:03 AM PDT by ken5050 (Barack Obama: An empty suit sitting in an empty chair...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Also means that the eyebrow loses the race race..


19 posted on 10/12/2012 9:46:18 AM PDT by ken5050 (Barack Obama: An empty suit sitting in an empty chair...)
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To: Mad Dawg; EDINVA; Hawthorn; Paisan; VA_Gentleman; seekthetruth; COBOL2Java; Perdogg; kabar; Gabz; ..

VA Ping!

If you want on/off the VA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Virginians, please ping me.

Thanks!


20 posted on 10/12/2012 10:04:39 AM PDT by randita
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Great. Keep the pressure on. Stay positive and on-message. Many people are coming to the (correct) conclusion that Obama has nothing, no record of economic growth, no triumphs in foreign policy. All he has is another $6 trillion in debt to show for four years in office. Like me, many people are saying, f-that noise.
21 posted on 10/12/2012 10:10:44 AM PDT by chimera
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To: ObozoMustGo2012
The Vice President, seen here after the debate, did not offer any comment on the poll results.


22 posted on 10/12/2012 10:21:23 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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