Posted on 08/24/2015 12:26:13 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Who are the leaders in this crowded race for the GOP nomination? If you look at national polls, the top three are Trump, Bush, and Carson. If you look at New Hampshire, it's Trump, Kasich, and Bush. If you look at Iowa, it's Trump, Carson, and Walker, though I don't know how proud Scott Walker can be to be third in a state that should almost be giving him a home-state advantage.
But these polls by themselves don't show who the leaders are in the race. To know the answer to that question, you have to look at all the fundamentals, not just polling but also money raised, organizational strength, and strengths of the candidate. Let's look at the major candidates one by one and you'll see what I mean.
Those who aren't:
John Kasich is number two in New Hamphire, but is just a blip on the rest of the polls. He hasn't raised much money yet, although he is very new to the race. Personality wise, he doesn't have much charisma; Jeb Bush has none either, but compared to Kasich, Jeb Bush is Tom Cruise. After Chris Christie fell through as the backup candidate for the Chamber of Commerce, Kasich has appeared to take his place. But until Kasich shows strength outside of New Hampshire, until he raises a lot of money and builds an organization, he simply isn't a major candidate.
Ben Carson is strong in many polls, but he hasn't raised much money. $11 million dollars sounds like a lot, but is a pittance compared to Jeb Bush's $100 million. Carson also has no national, fifty state organization structure. He has charisma; if he didn't he wouldn't have gotten this far. But until he raises a lot more money and builds a national organization he cannot be considered a major candidate.
Marco Rubio has a $42 million base of support, but he's been nowhere in the polls. If he can't be better than third in his home state of Florida, where he is right now, he's done.
Scott Walker used to be a major candidate but the way things are going, he's falling out of that status. Remember when he was number one in Iowa? Because it is a neighboring state, Walker has to win Iowa. Right now he is number three, behind Ben Carson, who has no organization or financing to speak of. Walker has made an incredible number of stumbles, most recently on the issue of immigration, which have cost him a lot of support. He has $26 milion dollars in the bank, which isn't nothing, but unless he does something soon to turn it around, he will not make it back to the ranks of the major players.
Those who are:
Like him or not, Jeb Bush is obviously a major candidate. Even though he is no longer ahead in any poll, the $120 million dollar man can not be discounted, as he has the backing of the Chamber of Commerce, the establishment Republicans, and probably all the hosts of Mordor. He's charisma challenged, but has a national organization, and strong establishment backing, and with that much money he is still a major player.
Donald Trump, of course is a major player, simply by virtue of being number one in all the polls. I honestly don't know if he has a national organization in place or not but I do know, given the nature of his personal wealth, that money will not be a problem for him. He is extremely charismatic and a great communicator.
And then there is Ted Cruz. Nowhere does Ted Cruz show up in the top three of any poll, but that is deceptive. Cruz has raised the most "hard cash" money of any candidate, and has tremendous supports among the grass roots and conservative base. In total he has 52 million dollars and he is running a national, 50 state campaign and has the organization to back it up. While he is not riding high in the polls now, by virtue of his financing and charisma and base of support, he is most likely to be the one to jump into the mix when one of the top three in the polls stumble.
So right now it seems to me that Trump, Bush, and Cruz are the leading candidates. The rest haven't, at least for now, demonstrated the fundamental strength to be serious candidates.
Spot on.
Seems pretty straight forward. But I call his statements about Jeb Bush ridiculous. Lots of money and very little support from the people who are voters.
SuperPAC wise I don’t know, but the campaign is doing millions every few days from what I hear.
The Jeb people and the Cruz people are watching Trump for a major stumble or an Achilles heel. If they can't find it, they'd better get in line for the Vice Presidency--or an Ambassadorship to Nauru.
If Trump maintains his promise, opposition to him will intensify, as will his support.
Expect bogus polls, showing, among other things, that he can't possibly win.
Expect well organized and choreographed assaults on everything from his character to his past to his physical safety and to things no one could possibly imagine.
Expect MASSIVE voter fraud. And any other kind of fraud the Democrats think they can get away with.
Expect threats of violence, riots, civil disobedience, and any other kind of intimidation the Left can devise.
It's going to get nasty.
Trump probably has the staying power. He certainly does not shrink from conflict. He probably knows what he's up against.
The outcome probably depends upon a combination of his resolve and his grass-roots support.
If he wins, the country wins big.
But the struggle from here to there is going to be hard, uncertain, and dangerous.
GOPe—Polls don’t mean anything when our guy is losing. Besides, there’s plenty of time to manipulate things.
Just heard yesterday that Cruz is #2 in total funding at north of 50 Mil.
"Strengths of the candidate" is not an objective measure. So, once again, it all comes down to people's opinions - which are hard to measure without using opinion polls.
The losers,Walker,Paul,Christie,Rubio,Kasich are all in the race to split the vote to allow Jeb Bush to win.
Check out the primaries,proportional and winner take all contests in key states,Bush could not win in any if matched against a strong conservative,but split the vote with a few popular conservatives and old Jeb wins with a small percentage of the total vote and walks away with all the delegates in these winner take all states.
The establishment Republicans set it up this way on purpose FOLKS,Jeb Bush is going to be shoved down our throats.
Trump is folding himself now,says he will now take contributions from big money donors! What else will he flip flop on,the fence? Making America Great again?
Pretty straight forward - Cruz keeps getting my monthly donations...
Except for Bush. All the money in the world won’t save him from the attack ads he’s set up for himself, being a Mexican and all. He has no self pride/esteem; he white shame face man and Hispanic CITIZENS tend to like strong, cutting edge leaders; not pansies. Whites don’t like shame faced whites who pander to Black and Brown anti-White racists, either.
None of them have yet to take on the issue of police brutality and the Soros left’s and NOI response of calling for the lynching of whites and police officers on behalf of real criminals like Mike Brown who was responsible for his own death.
Insisting that only Black lives matter...not all lives matter - when it comes to REAL police brutality and murder is racist. Hispanics, Asians, whites and blacks have all been victims of police brutality and corruption. Soros should be outted and ashamed of himself, trying to divide and burn hate in the hearts of Blacks against Whites and Hispanics. Democrats, the party of the KKK and segregation, only knows division via race hate and scapegoating for power. Anyone can play the race card if need be.
Hispanic leftists who attack Trump for being racist for enforcing the border should be asked if they belong to LaRaza. Then asked what does that mean in English. Answer - “The race.” How racist can you get, actually belonging to a race hate, America hate group like LaRaza?
Not sure Walker conservatives will run with Jeb. They all should realize that Jeb can not win a general election without Trump/Cruz supporters and they will be electing Hillary or just as bad, Biden and the fake indian marxist, if they are not careful. Most Trump and Cruz supporters won’t vote for Jeb. He’s more of the same NWO abuse and worse - no doubt.
Not to mention Lindsey Graham...
/s
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